#Bitcoin Support trend channel.
I have already written about this indicator before. Now we continue to be in the bullish part of the channel, where the middle line is often a support in a bullish market and a resistance in a bearish one.
π€If you like the indicator, I can add it to the Feels subscription or make a raffle.
I have already written about this indicator before. Now we continue to be in the bullish part of the channel, where the middle line is often a support in a bullish market and a resistance in a bearish one.
π€If you like the indicator, I can add it to the Feels subscription or make a raffle.
#Bitcoin Gaussian Channel and ETF π
Will the adoption of #ETF be able to break the historical pattern?π€
In each cycle of bitcoin, the price before the halving could not overcome the 0.78 Fibonacci mark, which acted as resistance.
Now the price has again approached this historical resistance, which is about ~50k.
π‘In my opinion, we are unlikely to break through this mark, because the fundamental impact of the ETF on the price of BTC requires time, which, by the way, is not much left until the halving.
I think that's when we will feel the impact of these 2 fundamental events. Decrease in supply and increase in demandπ
Will the adoption of #ETF be able to break the historical pattern?π€
In each cycle of bitcoin, the price before the halving could not overcome the 0.78 Fibonacci mark, which acted as resistance.
Now the price has again approached this historical resistance, which is about ~50k.
π‘In my opinion, we are unlikely to break through this mark, because the fundamental impact of the ETF on the price of BTC requires time, which, by the way, is not much left until the halving.
I think that's when we will feel the impact of these 2 fundamental events. Decrease in supply and increase in demandπ
#Bitcoin Gaussian Channel π
While the majority on the joys of adopting ETF, drew forecasts of at least 60k, I said why it won't happen at least so soon.
Now, as in the previous cycles, the 0.78 (49k) zone acted as resistance, and Bitcoin went on a correction.
π‘I think that in the near future there will be consolidations with a possible retest of the lower parts of the Gaussian channel. Use this time for the last selection of assets, because there may not be more such corrections in the next 2 years.
While the majority on the joys of adopting ETF, drew forecasts of at least 60k, I said why it won't happen at least so soon.
Now, as in the previous cycles, the 0.78 (49k) zone acted as resistance, and Bitcoin went on a correction.
π‘I think that in the near future there will be consolidations with a possible retest of the lower parts of the Gaussian channel. Use this time for the last selection of assets, because there may not be more such corrections in the next 2 years.
#Bitcoin and RSI π
BTC has not had a healthy correction for about 3 months now. All this time, the price did not test the BMS or drop below 50 on the RSI.
What we see now is a bearish signal of a break below 50 and a retest from below. And also a break of the trend line and a retest from belowπ»
As I wrote earlier, the ETF will start to have an impact not immediately, but closer to halving, by this time we may have a correction to 37k, or if the power of buyers turn out to be stronger than I expected, consolidation in the area of 40k.
BTC has not had a healthy correction for about 3 months now. All this time, the price did not test the BMS or drop below 50 on the RSI.
What we see now is a bearish signal of a break below 50 and a retest from below. And also a break of the trend line and a retest from belowπ»
As I wrote earlier, the ETF will start to have an impact not immediately, but closer to halving, by this time we may have a correction to 37k, or if the power of buyers turn out to be stronger than I expected, consolidation in the area of 40k.
We continue to analyze #Bitcoin using the Gaussian channel (see previous posts) π
πBitcoin is consolidating in the region of 40k, following the correction from the resistance line that I mentioned earlier. I further believe that a retest of the 37k zone is possible since there is still enough time for halving.
On the wave trend oscillators, a red signal π΄ is also visible, after which the correction often begins, the only exception here is bullran at the end of the cycle.
π‘The situation is similar to the mid-cycle peak at the end of 2019, but now it happened much closer to the halving, so I would not expect such a prolonged downtrend, but only a 1-2 month correction.
πBitcoin is consolidating in the region of 40k, following the correction from the resistance line that I mentioned earlier. I further believe that a retest of the 37k zone is possible since there is still enough time for halving.
On the wave trend oscillators, a red signal π΄ is also visible, after which the correction often begins, the only exception here is bullran at the end of the cycle.
π‘The situation is similar to the mid-cycle peak at the end of 2019, but now it happened much closer to the halving, so I would not expect such a prolonged downtrend, but only a 1-2 month correction.
#Bitcoin corrections in 2024 π
There is not much time left for BTC to undergo a significant correction before the halving. Let me remind you that halving significantly reduces the liquidity for sale from miners βοΈ
In recent days, we have had positive inflows from BTC - ETF, which also puts pressure on the price in a positive direction. It should also be remembered that, in general, an increase in the global liquidity of central banks is forecast this year π¦
π‘In conclusion, this year will definitely be positive for BTC. Predicting a correction is quite a difficult task since many more positives should move the price higher than negatives.
πBasically, I think most technical corrections will be no more than 20-30% from the local peak and BMS retest.
There is not much time left for BTC to undergo a significant correction before the halving. Let me remind you that halving significantly reduces the liquidity for sale from miners βοΈ
In recent days, we have had positive inflows from BTC - ETF, which also puts pressure on the price in a positive direction. It should also be remembered that, in general, an increase in the global liquidity of central banks is forecast this year π¦
π‘In conclusion, this year will definitely be positive for BTC. Predicting a correction is quite a difficult task since many more positives should move the price higher than negatives.
πBasically, I think most technical corrections will be no more than 20-30% from the local peak and BMS retest.
#Bitcoin Keltner Channels π
The current BTC cycle is often compared to the cycle of 2016 or 2020. Well, let's consider what if this cycle is different.
In the first cycle(2016), we did not have substantive and protracted corrections. The second cycle had a more pronounced mid-cycle peak, and a longer consolidation after it, and even then the 2nd wave of movement.
The current cycle can have a 3-wave movement. What does this indicate?
π‘For example, if now the ETF inflow continues to be positive, and in a month everyone will understand that the halving is very soon, this may lead to the fact that there will be no substantial corrections for another 2-3 months.
πThe third wave will begin already after a decrease in sales from miners and an increase in liquidity from lowering interest rates and infusions into the economy.
The current BTC cycle is often compared to the cycle of 2016 or 2020. Well, let's consider what if this cycle is different.
In the first cycle(2016), we did not have substantive and protracted corrections. The second cycle had a more pronounced mid-cycle peak, and a longer consolidation after it, and even then the 2nd wave of movement.
The current cycle can have a 3-wave movement. What does this indicate?
π‘For example, if now the ETF inflow continues to be positive, and in a month everyone will understand that the halving is very soon, this may lead to the fact that there will be no substantial corrections for another 2-3 months.
πThe third wave will begin already after a decrease in sales from miners and an increase in liquidity from lowering interest rates and infusions into the economy.
$BTC / SP500 Correlation π
#Bitcoin and the SPX mostly correlate (move similarly). It is clearly visible that most of the histogram is green except for some cases which I circled in gray areas.
πWhat do we have now? Although they are now maintaining a positive correlation, the latest movement of the stock market is even stronger than that of Bitcoin.
π‘The stock market is growing due to optimism about increased liquidity and, of course, the AI narrative, which has had a strong impact on MSFT and NVDA, strongly driving the technology sector SP500.
So far, most analysts agree that 2024 will be positive for the stock market.
#Bitcoin and the SPX mostly correlate (move similarly). It is clearly visible that most of the histogram is green except for some cases which I circled in gray areas.
πWhat do we have now? Although they are now maintaining a positive correlation, the latest movement of the stock market is even stronger than that of Bitcoin.
π‘The stock market is growing due to optimism about increased liquidity and, of course, the AI narrative, which has had a strong impact on MSFT and NVDA, strongly driving the technology sector SP500.
So far, most analysts agree that 2024 will be positive for the stock market.