#Bitcoin 3 Phases Theory 🚦

Recently, there has been a lot of speculation about ATH.

"We will take ATH in 2023, we will take ATH until the halving"📰

Let me tell you, it won't happen, at least not so quickly.

🧮On average, the time from the bottom to taking the past high takes ~700 days. Add diminishing returns here, because large capitalization does not allow BTC to grow as fast as before.

💡And we get that even under positive scenarios it won't be before the halving, so I wouldn't expect an ATH before mid-2024.

The reason I love the crypto market, and why most of my algorithms are for this market, is because of its returns💰

Where else will you get such returns in ~3 months. (Of course with a quality indicator)

$JOE has become greedy, you can start placing orders for receiving profit.

#Bitcoin Whale Liquidity 🐳🌊

At a time when popular analysis promised rapid movement without corrections above 100k. I kept stressing that in a healthy bull market, there are corrections and that's normal, you have to be ready for that.

Today there was a small correction, even rather a long squeeze, which is difficult to call a correction. And already the majority of the market is starting to worry. And the analysis of the majority changed to be more conservative.

💡Don't be like that, remain unemotional and think coldly. Now, as for the chart, the past selling zone of the whales has become a more difficult resistance, as I said. I think we have opportunities for consolidation, for some time, before a new upward movement↗️

After fairly accurate green signals 🟢 combined with Fear, $KCS enters the stage of greed.

This means that soon it will be possible to partially fix the profit in this asset🍊

Global Net Liquidity Correlation with #Bitcoin

The main factor in liquidity growth was the infusion from China (PRC - money supply M2 = +10.3%). There is also some optimism that Western countries will move to lower key rates in 2024.

💡The majority would probably like countries to start printing money in large quantities in a short period, like in 2021, and their assets to grow. Instead, I think that we are in for restrained growth in liquidity and with it the market's crypto.↗️

Why do most people not earn money on the crypto market?🤔

The answer is simple, most do not have a strategy.

$HNT Here we can see green zone🟢 + fear, orange zone🟠 + greed. It seems to me that it is difficult to think of a simpler interface.

#Bitcoin Сorrelation with #Dollar

A weaker DXY = a positive for BTC✍️

The chart below shows the moments when 2 assets are correlated (circled⭕️). Note the DXY is inverted.

In the last post, I said that I expect the dollar to continue to fall, leading to BTC's growth.

💡What's next? Now, most analysts agree that the key rate will decrease in 2024, which is again negative for the dollar and positive for risk assets↗️

#Bitcoin/#SPX: In search of The ATH 🔎

In the last post, I predicted when the mid-cycle peak would be, as you can see from the quoted post quite accurately✍️

Now about taking the marks of the past peak (69k).

This happens about 2 years after the bottom. When RSI, after taking a mid-cycle peak, again enters the zone of overbought values in $BTC ↗️

$BTC / SP500 Correlation 👀

#Bitcoin and the SPX most of the time correlate (move in the same way). It is clearly visible that most of the histogram is green except for some cases which I circled in gray areas.

Recently, there was again such a zone of decorrelation, and even though the majority wrote that everything bitcoin has nothing to do with the stock market. As we can see, the correlation has returned and is again at maximum values🔝

💡I think liquidity and optimism about reducing key rates played a role here, these factors equally affect these 2 assets. A new de-correlation may occur if the adoption of ETFs begins to act on Bitcoin, more than the previous factors.↗️

By the way, in the quoted post, I investigated another similarity, and I recommend reading it.

#Bitcoin Whale Liquidity 🐳🌊

The price continues to move according to the scenario I described earlier.✍️

I mostly say that you don't need to follow the news background because most of the headlines are noise or commissioned articles for the big players to collect some short-term liquidity. 📰

💡But in this case, it is not quite so. Now the short-medium-term analysis is complicated given that quite a lot depends on the announcement of the adoption of Bitcoin ETF. The scenario described on the chart is relevant if acceptances are delayed further. Otherwise, I expect a resistance breakdown sooner, possibly in January.

$ASTR reached the orange zone on the news of the listing on the largest Korean exchange⚡️

But as it often happens, "buy on rumors - sell on news", after reaching the orange zone, the Astar dropped sharply〽️

#Bitcoin Keltner Channels 📈

🔝Bitcoin broke out of the baseline resistance, under which it consolidated for a long period.

✍️While I don't expect a return below this gray line until the peak of the cycle, remember that it is almost 2 years away and we will have more than one correction before then.

💡I expect especially volatility in the next six months when there are quite a lot of events related to BTC.

$CFG Another good performance of the Feels indicator.

Now Greed🟥 is growing, but as with Fear🟦, this is not the end of growth. We expect to reach the orange zone.

The $STORJ is feeling great, I congratulate the investors who entered the Fear🟦 or green zone🟩.

Although it is already greed🟥, I think there is still potential. I recommend fixing some small part of the position💰

#Bitcoin Bollinger Band 👀

The volatility of the asset can be viewed relative to the width of the Bollinger lines, and it is also convenient to use the BBW oscillator for this.

✍️We have mainly 3 waves of increasing volatility before the main bull run. The first is mostly the bottom of the market, and the second or third is the midcycle peak. If one wave was quite large, the next one is mostly smaller, like in 2019.

🤔In our case, the waves of volatility are more similar to 2016. I expect something in the middle between 2022 and 2023, so a possible stop somewhere around ~1.00.

💡How does such a wave end? This is mainly a retest of the middle line 🟠 of the Bollinger bands, now it is 33k+, note that it is rising.

$SEI The asset is quite new, but you can see the good performance of the Feels indicator.

The first notes of greed and the orange zone🟠 appear. I think you already know what that means.

Did the indicator predict a good entry point on the $BSV?

Yes, although this is not quite a classic altсoin and it moves atypically, having an open order you could enter at a good price🟢

#Bitcoin Support trend channel.

I have already written about this indicator before. Now we continue to be in the bullish part of the channel, where the middle line is often a support in a bullish market and a resistance in a bearish one.

🤔If you like the indicator, I can add it to the Feels subscription or make a raffle.

$SKL Despite the popular opinion that altcoins are like bitcoin with leverage, here Skale has reached the orange zone + greed.

As you already know these 2 signals(🟠+🟥) are historically a good time to take profit.

$GRT Quite an interesting asset. Now found some support above the yellow zone.

If you look for a pattern, last winter, it also showed quite good volatility, making a move from fear🟦 to greed🟥, which brought a decent profit.

#Bitcoin Gaussian Channel and ETF 👀

Will the adoption of #ETF be able to break the historical pattern?🤔

In each cycle of bitcoin, the price before the halving could not overcome the 0.78 Fibonacci mark, which acted as resistance.

Now the price has again approached this historical resistance, which is about ~50k.

💡In my opinion, we are unlikely to break through this mark, because the fundamental impact of the ETF on the price of BTC requires time, which, by the way, is not much left until the halving.

I think that's when we will feel the impact of these 2 fundamental events. Decrease in supply and increase in demand📈