📊 AUSTRALIAN GP | Huge Delta in Russell's Missed Attack

Remember the 'DRS fly-by overtakes'?
That's nothing: RUS had a 49 km/h advantage over LEC on Lap 9 on the main straight, and still couldn't pass him! 🚀

💡Key points:
- LEC used limited his power on that straight to preserve charge: he couldn't accelerate past 285 km/h even though the rules allow full deployment below 290 km/h.
- RUS was too greedy to wait for the longest straight and had to drain his battery on the start/finish line, only to lock up.
- That 49 km/h delta means a ~60% higher Power/Drag ratio for RUS, coming from higher power first, slipstream second.
- Behind them, HAM reached 311 km/h.

This is my take based on the opening laps:
- To win the WDC, RUS needs to match LEC's battle skills.
- LEC needs a more effective Power Unit (the rotating wing will aid with energy management).

What do you think?

📊 CHINESE GP - SPRINT QUALIFYING | TOP SPEED

Mercedes-powered teams fastest on average (335.5km/h); Alpine even hit 339! (Oddly on the start-finish straight).

Ferrari-powered cars were 2nd slowest (330.3), closer to Honda (326) than Mercedes (335.5).

Audi did a great job!

Alpine's chronic power deficit over the past few years might have taught them how to manage drag...

📊 CHINESE GP - SPRINT | SPRINT PACE

🟢 Mercedes's 'all-out' quali pace advantage disappeared in the race: 🔴 Ferrari could keep up, but wore its tyres more in the process.

🔵 VER had no pace: 1.8 s/lap slower than RUS; 🟡 LAW was almost as quick despite using one less tyre set!

Ferrari might leapfrog Mercedes at the race start, then fight for several laps; whether they can aim for an unlikely win depends on how well they can manage their tyres!

📊 CHINESE GP - RACE | RACE PACE

PACE PER TEAM (1 STOPS)

1️⃣ Mercedes
2️⃣ Ferrari +0.64s/lap
3️⃣ Alpine +1.32
4️⃣ Haas +1.43
5️⃣ Racing Bulls +1.81
6️⃣ Audi +1.83
7️⃣ Williams +2.47
8️⃣ Cadillac +3.51

🗒Key points:

- Mercedes: strong enough chassis for their PU advantage to dominate on pace and straights. They may detune the ICE in the next 3 races to push rivals outside the ADUO window (based on race-estimated PU power), preventing engine development.

- Ferrari: best chassis and clear 2nd-best car. Much worse tyre deg than Mercedes; more power would let them run higher downforce and improve wear. Right now, they must push harder in corners, hurting tyres.

- Alpine FINALLY competitive! Best of the rest with Haas, both quicker than HAD’s RBR.

- Cadillac is slow but at least finishes races, unlike Aston and VER’s RBR. McLaren couldn’t even start: from WCC/WDC winners to just 1 point ahead of Haas!

This season will hinge on politics more than ever: ICE/ERS power-split debates (to reduce clipping), the compression-ratio saga, and possibly teams limiting power to block rivals’ concessions... teams which are best at lobbying will have a critical advantage!

📊 CHINESE GP - RACE | STINTS

🟥 Ferrari had no chance in the Chinese GP: 🟦 Mercedes were the 'Kings of Wear', as their laptimes NEVER trended upwards!

1st stint (🟡 Mediums):
Mercedes held a constant pace, while Ferrari showed degradation.

2nd stint (⚪️Hards):
Mercedes first ran steadily, then started pushing, improving by ~1 s/lap (despite increasingly worn tyres!).
They gained up to 0.9 s/lap on Ferrari and later ran sub-1:36 laps.

Ferrari's wear hurt by:
- In-team battles;
- Pushing harder in corners to offset the power deficit;
- Possibly running less downforce due to lower PU output;
- Possibly, Car traits/setup that stress the tyres more.

Cars now start with ~70 kg of fuel (vs ~100 kg before).
Empty vs full tank is worth ~2s, not ~3s, yet Mercedes still improved their pace through the stint.

In the end, it didn't matter: Mercedes were unreachable.

This feels like 2015 again: Mercedes fastest, Ferrari clearly 2nd, and no other real F1 title contender.

I've Simulated Mercedes's Rumoured ~10kW ICE Power Advantage! 💡

- ICE power constant
- ERS drops from max to 0 over 5s 📉

In the race, Mercedes can:
⚫️ On one lap, use the 10kW stronger ICE to save 10kW of ERS deployment.
🔵 On the next, deploy the energy saved previously: +10kW ICE power AND +10kW ERS!

Notice that, even when ⚫️ saving energy, they're still faster than 🔴 Ferrari: ERS power fades over time, ICE power remains!

A stronger ICE means:
- Higher average power.
- More strategic flexibility.
- Harvest more while still faster, then deploy for a bigger gain.
- Run more downforce (better cornering and wear); the drag increase will equalise the top speed, yet acceleration remains better.

ICE power is the key to success in 2026!

[Data: 780kg mass; 0.6m2 CdA; 1.225kgm-3 rho; 95% transm. efficiency; Max ERS power set to ~300kW at 200km/h due to traction/energy/wear compromises]

Keep in mind that I’ve used a conservative estimate: the rumored value is ~11kW, not 10kW, and could be more than that potentially.

Made via @JMP_software

The Length of 8th Gear in Testing vs Racing

It's confirmed now: NO F1 team changed the length of the 8th gear from testing to racing!

[Made via @JMP_software]

This means that McL has the shortest ratio, and Audi by far the longest: the former could increase PU efficiency and thus power on slower tracks (closer-spaced gears→can operate around max-efficiency point), the latter on fast ones .

I explain how I computed that in this video! 👇

At What Speed Can an F1 Car Stay Upside Down?

Do you often drive F1 cars upside down in tunnels?

If so, bad news: in 2026, you’ll need +11.7 km/h for the car’s downforce (upforce?) to match its weight!

2026 cars are 20kg lighter (-2.5%) than 2025s, but have ~13% less downforce. The latter prevails: the speed needed to equate its weight increased from 199.7 km/h to 211.4 km/h → slower in high-speed corners, lower g-forces.

In reality, 211.4 km/h would only let you drive upside down very briefly: at that speed, downforce=weight →No normal force and thus traction! Drag would slow the car down → downforce drops → you fall!

In order not to fall, you would need enough downforce to produce enough rear longitudinal force to overcome drag.

[CFD analysis via @Air_Shaper]

🗒 KEY SUZUKA NOTES

🔥Extreme cornering speeds and tyre stress:
- Ferrari's superior chassis/aero will help in quali, BUT...
- ...High wear will hurt them in the race.
- Crucial to ace per-corner ERS deployment/harvest to save energy (and tyres)... meaning that quali won't be flat out as usual :(

Very PU-demanding track, like Australia: Mercedes' ICE power advantage will matter more than in China.

Crucial indicator of each team's performance for the rest of the season... or at least before the technical directives and big updates.


📸 @pirellisport
📊 @GaborWeber

📊 JAPANESE GP - PRACTICE 2 | LONG RUNS

🟢 Mercedes is looking untouchable: quick and consistent.
🔴 LEC was next best, yet over 0.6s/lap slower!
🟠 PIA set the quickest lap, but long run didn't impress.
🟣 Alpine and ⚪️ Haas are looking good again!
🔵 VER again nowhere. HAD was as quick as him once slow laps are removed!

Pace per team:
1) Merc/ANT (M)
2) Ferrari/LEC (M) +0.662 s/lap;
3) McL/PIA (M) +1.144 s/lap;
4) Alpine/GAS (H) +1.301 s/lap;
5) Haas/OCO (M) +1.410 s/lap;
6) RBR/VER (H) +1.493 s/lap;
7) Audi/HUL (H) +1.550 s/lap;
8) RBs/LAW (M) +2.050 s/lap;
9) Williams/ALB (M) +2.468 s/lap;
10) Cadillac/BOT (M) +3.205 s/lap.

🔋🪫 JAPANESE GP - QUALIFYING | CLIPPING ANALYSIS
(130R CORNER)
+ TOP SPEED & MINIMUM SPEED

🟥 Ferrari had the WORST top speed: just 320km/h. Ferrari-powered teams were slowest on average (worse than Aston-Honda even)!

🟩 Honda had a massive 60km/h clipping: just 267 km/h while still full-throttle! (worst ICE⛽️?)

Mercedes-powered 🟪 Alpine was fastest overall: 333 km/h top speed, like RBs, but better minimum speed.

- Best top speeds: RBPT PU (strong deployment).
- Best minimum speeds: Mercedes and Audi PU (strong ICE).

Clipping was so absurdly high during and after the 130R corner because the low-drag mode was not allowed during and after that corner.

Before the corner: ERS deployment + low drag mode.
During and after: ERS harvesting + high drag mode.

This wasn't the case in Australia or China.


[Made via @JMP_software]

📊 JAPANESE GP - QUALIFYING| BEST QUALI LAP 2026 vs 2025


Great job to Audi (Sauber) and Mercedes, losing 'just' 1.4s despite the regulation change.

Ferrari and McL lost ~0.6s to them, but still less than most of the teams.

RBR lost ~3s, and Williams 3.3s.

Aston? Almost 5s!

📊 JAPANESE GP - RACE | RACE PACE

1) Merc
2) McL +0.24 s/lap;
3) Ferrari +0.32 s/lap;
4) Alpine +0.97 s/lap;
5) RBR +1.02 s/lap;
6) Haas +1.59 s/lap;
7) Audi +1.71 s/lap;
8) RBs +1.74 s/lap;
9) Williams +2.13 s/lap;
10) Cadillac +3.14 s/lap;
11) Aston +3.99 s/lap.

My take on the race:
- ANT could be the most likely WDC. 2 wins in 3 races, already matching RUS's best season! Must improve his starts, though.
- McL is back, having achieved peak PU performance (either through testing or Mercedes assistance).
- Ferrari, and LEC in particular, maximised their points once again. Performance will come.
- GAS beat VER thanks to pace and better straight-line performance.
- Regulations work better for races than for quali
- COL was going NINETY-TWO km/h slower than BEA: something must be done about these regulations, creating dangerous situations.

Rate the race from 1 to 10!

COL vs BEA images by @SamF1__

📊 JAPANESE GP - RACE | Hamilton's Power Issue

Hamilton was right: he had NO POWER to defend from LEC and RUS! 🪫

LEC reached 317 km/h without slipstream or overtake mode, HAM just 307 (Lap 42).

And that's nothing: LEC reached 330 when in HAM's slipstream, but the latter didn't exceed 306 when the roles inverted!
(Lap 43, and RUS overtook him.)

Behind HAM, LEC gained 0.391s on the main straight.

Behind LEC, HAM LOST 0.250s (while RUS gained 0.529s).

So:
- For some reason (bug?) HAM didn't have the ERS power needed to defend. ❌
- RUS could overtake HAM more easily than LEC did... even though he was 0.144s further behind on the straight! 🚀

F1'S BIGGEST ISSUE: ERS BEHAVIOR AT FULL THROTTLE

At full throttle, ERS behaviour (deployment vs harvesting) dictates acceleration: the difference approaches 10 m/s², like going from constant speed to stomping the brakes of a road car!

Max deployment: +350 kW
Max harvest at full throttle: −250 kW
Difference: 600 kW (~800 hp)

ΔAcceleration = ΔPower / ( Mass × Speed )→ 9.2 m/s²
(Confirmed by the data!)

The driver stays flat out, yet total power swings by 800 hp (1000 hp → 200 hp, or Bugatti Veyron vs Polo GTI).

And it gets worse: This #F1 data... is from HAM's best QUALIFYING lap!

My solution:

For 2026:
- Limit ERS deployment from 350kW to 250kW (53%/47%→62%/38% ICE/ERS power split). 🔋
- Limit the max harvest at full throttle to -150kW (keep the 350kW harvest under braking).

For 2027:
- Increase fuel flow by 20%, reaching ~1000hp again with 66%/34% split.

For the future: cheaper naturally aspirated 3000cc V8 engines on biofuel + rider-managed KERS. 🔥

Made via @JMP_software

What's YOUR SOLUTION? 👀

I've estimated the ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) power for each manufacturer: big trouble for Red Bull, while Ferrari can be optimistic! 👀

Mercedes: ~576 hp (best)!

Teams with ≤564 hp (>2% deficit) earn one extra upgrade token per year. RBPT sits at ~565 hp: they may miss the cut!

Their PU isn't the problem; the chassis is, which is why Racing Bulls has matched them!

Teams with ≤552 hp (>4% deficit) earn TWO extra upgrades per year. Ferrari, Audi, and Honda should all qualify!


Ferrari's gap to Mercedes (~29hp) is huge, yet their best-in-class chassis allows them to fight!


Which team will have the best in-season development? 🤔

The 1953 British Racing Motor #F1 engine was more powerful than the best Internal Combustion Engine on the 2026 grid! 🤯

The fuel-flow meter limits power excessively: no wonder it cannot produce enough energy to make ERS deployment sustainable! 🪫

A 10 to 20% fuel-flow increase, coupled with an equal reduction in ERS peak power, would:
🔋 - Limit clipping substantially;
📈 - Improve laptimes (same peak power, higher average power) and top speeds;
🛠❌ - Avoid major engine redesigns.


A no-brainer, in my opinion...