I'M HOSTING AN F1 FANTASY LEAGUE! 🚗

I will use the official 'F1 Fantasy' platform. League name: 'Formula Data Analysis'

2 ways to join:
-Link: https://fantasy.formula1.com/en/leagues/join/P3WOBNM0E09
-League Code: P3WOBNM0E09

Beat your friends through my analyses; may the best Performance Engineer win! 🏆

Ferrari’s rotating rear wing could cut drag by a further 7%, worth 5-8 km/h on fast tracks 💡

Rear-wing CdA (drag) drops by 'just' 0.010. But the effect propagates upstream:
• Rear tyres: –0.024 CdA (!!)
• Chassis: –0.014 CdA

CFD by @MayaSimulation shows every component either sees reduced drag or remains unchanged... and that’s with a generic wing profile! Ferrari has shaped the rear end specifically to maximise this concept.

This could be a critical advantage!

AUSTRALIAN GP - PRACTICE 2 DATA ANALYSIS 📊

Best Sector Gap

Three different teams set purple sectors: McL (PIA) in S1, Ferrari (LEC) in S2, and Mercedes (ANT) in S3.

Quali will be close!

LIN was very quick in S2; VER is losing significant time in the first and last sector.

Aston lost well over 2s in the last sector alone!

Was the case in the test, it’s happening again now: the QUICKEST laps were made with a LOWER top speed!

💡Possible explanations:
- Theory suggests deploying as much as possible as early as possible, then reduce electric energy (Better performance, but lower top speed).
- The quicker a team is (e.g. McL), the larger the incentive to sandbag.

Both are happening, imho...

Mercedes has the best F1 PU - Period

No PU got close to it from T3 to T13. RBPT, the other PU of the 'Compression ratio' saga, is 2nd best.

Audi did produce a good PU, unlike Honda.

Beware of Ferrari: the team had battery software issues in Q2 and Q3, but BEA (the next quickest Ferrari-powered driver) had the least clipping!

Clipping is massive: cars lose ~50km/h ***on full throttle***!

Ferrari needs the rotating rear wing to work (and wait for the 1st June updated PU testing procedures) to fight on the straights. Their downforce is encouraging: look at the speed in the fast T6!

Losing ~50km/h AT FULL THROTTLE cannot be what F1 is about… especially in qualifying!

This PU-ruleset will be a disaster, and a clear downgrade compared to the previous one.

[Data: Considering each PU's quickest lap]

📊 Australian GP | RACE PACE!

Mercedes built a rocketship, yet Ferrari wasn't far behind!

Excellent comeback by VER!

Audi and Haas built cars which can lead the midfield this year, yet are ONE SECOND slower than the worst top-car (McL).

Alpine struggled, yet was quicker than Williams. Cadillac is slowest by far! (But, unlike Aston, can finish races).

Pace per team:
1) Merc (ANT)
2) Ferrari (HAM) +0.13 s/lap
3) RBR (VER) +0.53 s/lap
4) McL (NOR) +0.56 s/lap
5) Audi (BOR) +1.53 s/lap
6) Haas (BEA) +1.68 s/lap
7) RBs (LIN) +1.84 s/lap
8) Alpine (GAS) +2.12 s/lap
9) Williams (ALB) +2.36 s/lap
10) Cadillac (PER) +4.31 s/lap (!!)
11) Aston (?)

📊 AUSTRALIAN GP | TOP SPEED PER LAP

Not only were F1 top speeds much higher than last year, they were also always high, And reached earlier on the straight!

- 2025: Very high drag; DRS ON vs OFF had a big impact on top speed.

- 2026: Minimal drag due to active aero; overtake-mode adds deployment above 290km/h, but the top speed is *not* impacted as much (as battery drains quickly).

OCO went from slowest (304 km/h avg, no DRS) to quickest (334 km/h avg, peaking at 342 km/h)!

Teammate BEA was tied for 2nd best.

⚪️ Haas was quick on the straights in both quali and race!

🟣 COL hit 343km/h once!

📊 AUSTRALIAN GP | Huge Delta in Russell's Missed Attack

Remember the 'DRS fly-by overtakes'?
That's nothing: RUS had a 49 km/h advantage over LEC on Lap 9 on the main straight, and still couldn't pass him! 🚀

💡Key points:
- LEC used limited his power on that straight to preserve charge: he couldn't accelerate past 285 km/h even though the rules allow full deployment below 290 km/h.
- RUS was too greedy to wait for the longest straight and had to drain his battery on the start/finish line, only to lock up.
- That 49 km/h delta means a ~60% higher Power/Drag ratio for RUS, coming from higher power first, slipstream second.
- Behind them, HAM reached 311 km/h.

This is my take based on the opening laps:
- To win the WDC, RUS needs to match LEC's battle skills.
- LEC needs a more effective Power Unit (the rotating wing will aid with energy management).

What do you think?

📊 CHINESE GP - SPRINT QUALIFYING | TOP SPEED

Mercedes-powered teams fastest on average (335.5km/h); Alpine even hit 339! (Oddly on the start-finish straight).

Ferrari-powered cars were 2nd slowest (330.3), closer to Honda (326) than Mercedes (335.5).

Audi did a great job!

Alpine's chronic power deficit over the past few years might have taught them how to manage drag...

📊 CHINESE GP - SPRINT | SPRINT PACE

🟢 Mercedes's 'all-out' quali pace advantage disappeared in the race: 🔴 Ferrari could keep up, but wore its tyres more in the process.

🔵 VER had no pace: 1.8 s/lap slower than RUS; 🟡 LAW was almost as quick despite using one less tyre set!

Ferrari might leapfrog Mercedes at the race start, then fight for several laps; whether they can aim for an unlikely win depends on how well they can manage their tyres!

📊 CHINESE GP - RACE | RACE PACE

PACE PER TEAM (1 STOPS)

1️⃣ Mercedes
2️⃣ Ferrari +0.64s/lap
3️⃣ Alpine +1.32
4️⃣ Haas +1.43
5️⃣ Racing Bulls +1.81
6️⃣ Audi +1.83
7️⃣ Williams +2.47
8️⃣ Cadillac +3.51

🗒Key points:

- Mercedes: strong enough chassis for their PU advantage to dominate on pace and straights. They may detune the ICE in the next 3 races to push rivals outside the ADUO window (based on race-estimated PU power), preventing engine development.

- Ferrari: best chassis and clear 2nd-best car. Much worse tyre deg than Mercedes; more power would let them run higher downforce and improve wear. Right now, they must push harder in corners, hurting tyres.

- Alpine FINALLY competitive! Best of the rest with Haas, both quicker than HAD’s RBR.

- Cadillac is slow but at least finishes races, unlike Aston and VER’s RBR. McLaren couldn’t even start: from WCC/WDC winners to just 1 point ahead of Haas!

This season will hinge on politics more than ever: ICE/ERS power-split debates (to reduce clipping), the compression-ratio saga, and possibly teams limiting power to block rivals’ concessions... teams which are best at lobbying will have a critical advantage!

📊 CHINESE GP - RACE | STINTS

🟥 Ferrari had no chance in the Chinese GP: 🟦 Mercedes were the 'Kings of Wear', as their laptimes NEVER trended upwards!

1st stint (🟡 Mediums):
Mercedes held a constant pace, while Ferrari showed degradation.

2nd stint (⚪️Hards):
Mercedes first ran steadily, then started pushing, improving by ~1 s/lap (despite increasingly worn tyres!).
They gained up to 0.9 s/lap on Ferrari and later ran sub-1:36 laps.

Ferrari's wear hurt by:
- In-team battles;
- Pushing harder in corners to offset the power deficit;
- Possibly running less downforce due to lower PU output;
- Possibly, Car traits/setup that stress the tyres more.

Cars now start with ~70 kg of fuel (vs ~100 kg before).
Empty vs full tank is worth ~2s, not ~3s, yet Mercedes still improved their pace through the stint.

In the end, it didn't matter: Mercedes were unreachable.

This feels like 2015 again: Mercedes fastest, Ferrari clearly 2nd, and no other real F1 title contender.

I've Simulated Mercedes's Rumoured ~10kW ICE Power Advantage! 💡

- ICE power constant
- ERS drops from max to 0 over 5s 📉

In the race, Mercedes can:
⚫️ On one lap, use the 10kW stronger ICE to save 10kW of ERS deployment.
🔵 On the next, deploy the energy saved previously: +10kW ICE power AND +10kW ERS!

Notice that, even when ⚫️ saving energy, they're still faster than 🔴 Ferrari: ERS power fades over time, ICE power remains!

A stronger ICE means:
- Higher average power.
- More strategic flexibility.
- Harvest more while still faster, then deploy for a bigger gain.
- Run more downforce (better cornering and wear); the drag increase will equalise the top speed, yet acceleration remains better.

ICE power is the key to success in 2026!

[Data: 780kg mass; 0.6m2 CdA; 1.225kgm-3 rho; 95% transm. efficiency; Max ERS power set to ~300kW at 200km/h due to traction/energy/wear compromises]

Keep in mind that I’ve used a conservative estimate: the rumored value is ~11kW, not 10kW, and could be more than that potentially.

Made via @JMP_software

The Length of 8th Gear in Testing vs Racing

It's confirmed now: NO F1 team changed the length of the 8th gear from testing to racing!

[Made via @JMP_software]

This means that McL has the shortest ratio, and Audi by far the longest: the former could increase PU efficiency and thus power on slower tracks (closer-spaced gears→can operate around max-efficiency point), the latter on fast ones .

I explain how I computed that in this video! 👇

At What Speed Can an F1 Car Stay Upside Down?

Do you often drive F1 cars upside down in tunnels?

If so, bad news: in 2026, you’ll need +11.7 km/h for the car’s downforce (upforce?) to match its weight!

2026 cars are 20kg lighter (-2.5%) than 2025s, but have ~13% less downforce. The latter prevails: the speed needed to equate its weight increased from 199.7 km/h to 211.4 km/h → slower in high-speed corners, lower g-forces.

In reality, 211.4 km/h would only let you drive upside down very briefly: at that speed, downforce=weight →No normal force and thus traction! Drag would slow the car down → downforce drops → you fall!

In order not to fall, you would need enough downforce to produce enough rear longitudinal force to overcome drag.

[CFD analysis via @Air_Shaper]

🗒 KEY SUZUKA NOTES

🔥Extreme cornering speeds and tyre stress:
- Ferrari's superior chassis/aero will help in quali, BUT...
- ...High wear will hurt them in the race.
- Crucial to ace per-corner ERS deployment/harvest to save energy (and tyres)... meaning that quali won't be flat out as usual :(

Very PU-demanding track, like Australia: Mercedes' ICE power advantage will matter more than in China.

Crucial indicator of each team's performance for the rest of the season... or at least before the technical directives and big updates.


📸 @pirellisport
📊 @GaborWeber