Formula Data Analysis
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McLaren did NOT maximise their downforce in Singapore: their aerodynamic load was high enough that they could afford to trade part of it to reduce drag.

In FP2, Medium-high load wing for NOR, vs Maximum load wing for PIA.

PIA lost ~3km/h on all straights (~3% more drag) but could maintain 3km/h more on the fastest corner (~3% more lateral acceleration, or ~0.15g).

In the end, they prioritised not increasing the car's already high drag... and they dominated the race.

Drawings by @FraF1techdesign
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POINTS - 2024 vs 2023 (After 18 races)

McLaren: 242โžก๏ธ516 (more than double!)
Ferrari has improved significantly (but '23 was underwhelming): 322โžก๏ธ441 (+119)

Merc lost 15 points (344โžก๏ธ329), yet form is strong

Red Bull lost 231 points: they had 706pts last year after 18 races!
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2023 vs 2024
MINIMUM SPEED AT TURN 18 (DOWNFORCE) AND TOP SPEED (DRAG)

๐ŸŸขMercedes got worse in T18 (-1km/h): less loaded wingsโžก๏ธTremendous top speed gain (+6km/h, worst to best)!

๐Ÿ”ตRBR and ๐ŸŸ McL gained downforce keeping drag the same, but McL's improvement was 5 times RBR's!

๐Ÿ”ดFerrari improved both downforce (+3km/h in T18) and drag (+1km) over SAI's '23 pole despite not setting a Q3 lap in '24.

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QUALI PERFORMANCE EVOLUTION ๐Ÿ‘€

๐Ÿ”ตRBR's performance has changed drastically since Monaco: from 'almost guaranteed' poles to struggling for 2nd row

๐ŸŸ McL was 5th fastest in the opening quali, and has steadily and quickly improved since.

๐Ÿ”ดHas Ferrari's Canada-to-Zandvoort slump ended?

๐ŸŸขMercedes has been very inconsistent.
Aston has gotten progressively worse until Austria, but their single-lap pace has recently improved.

When will Red Bull's struggles end?
Will Aston fight for wins again next year?
And will Ferrari win again this season? ๐Ÿค”
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Will F1 ever match 2008's 'Aero-craziness'?

Most cars had a 'Bridge wing': an additional plane joining the endplates ABOVE the nose.

It produced additional downforce, albeit less efficiently than a wing closer to the road (no ground effect).

Tons of dirty air yet cool to watch!

As the rules raised the front wing from the ground starting from 2005, the downforce it produced was hampered.

Bridge wings are one of the ingenious ways engineers used to claw back the lost downforce.
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Verstappen is still the favourite for the championship - but Norris has more than 1/3 chance to win his first F1 championship! ๐Ÿ’ก

Probability (Oddschecker)
๐Ÿฅ‡๐Ÿ”ตVER 57.8%
๐Ÿฅˆ๐ŸŸ NOR 37.8%
๐Ÿฅ‰๐Ÿ”ดLEC 2.7%

WCC:
๐Ÿฅ‡๐ŸŸ McL 88.6%
๐Ÿฅˆ๐Ÿ”ตRBR 7.9%
๐Ÿฅ‰๐Ÿ”ดFerrari 3.3%

What's your prediction?๐Ÿค”
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US GP PREVIEW

Very representative track (One long straight, many fast corners, 2 slow hairpins, 2 strong braking zones): any weakness will be exposed!

Quick in Austin = Quick everywhere

C2-C3-C4 compounds
Balanced Front/Rear wear
Aero efficiency (Downforceโฌ†๏ธ, Dragโฌ‡๏ธ) is key.

๐Ÿ“ธ: @pirellisport
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๐ŸคฏThe craziest #F1 stat you'll see today:

Back in Miami, Lando Norris and McLaren had a TINY 1% probability of winning their respective championships!
(Less than Ferrari now: 2.7%!) ๐Ÿ˜ฒ

RedBull's chances of a WCC progressively declined from 92.6% to just 9.2%.๐Ÿ“‰

VER is still the WDC favourite (58.9%), but it's almost a coin toss now! Austin will be decisive ๐Ÿ”ฎ

Thanks, @oddschecker team, for contacting me and providing this data! ๐Ÿค

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Formula Data Analysis
๐ŸคฏThe craziest #F1 stat you'll see today: Back in Miami, Lando Norris and McLaren had a TINY 1% probability of winning their respective championships! (Less than Ferrari now: 2.7%!) ๐Ÿ˜ฒ RedBull's chances of a WCC progressively declined from 92.6% to just 9.2%.๐Ÿ“‰โ€ฆ
The โ€˜Implied Probabilityโ€™ is given by the payouts for each bet made before the start of the GP.

E.g. if by betting 1$ you get 2$ in case your prediction is correct then the probability is 1$/2$=0.5=50%.

The bookmakerโ€™s advantage has been removed: their sum is therefore 100%.
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FP1 DATA

Ferrari got a 1-2 finish by being the only team competitive in all sectors ๐Ÿ‘Œ

1) Ferrari cannot relax, though: VER was up to 15km/h quicker than SAI in the fast corners 3 to 7, exhibiting excellent downforce!

RedBull can still recover their 2km/h top speed deficit via a more powerful PU mode, while it will be hard for Ferrari to match RedBull in the fast corners.

2) BEST SECTORS
- S1: No surprise that VER was quickest there. LEC was just 0.01s behind though, as he gained on the straights and in Turn 1. McL struggled.
- S2 was McL's best sector (and VER's worst).
- S3: Ferrari's best sector.

What's your Sprint Shootout prediction? ๐Ÿคฉ
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๐Ÿ”ตVER will start the #F1 Sprint in P1, yet he wasn't the quickest in any sector! (But quick everywhere)
โšช๏ธThe upgraded Haas was mighty!

1) BEST SECTORS:
- S1: HAM fastest, by far (+0.13s vs VER)
- S2: RUS fastest, then NOR
- S3: LEC and HUL fastest
VER struggled in S2, NOR in S3

2) GRIP:
RUS reached the highest top speed (330km/h) yet he was also stronger than VER and LEC under braking! (Reached 6g of deceleration)

VER had excellent cornering grip, but braking was lacking.

๐Ÿ”ดLEC produced the lowest maximum lateral acceleration (in fact he struggled in S1).
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RACE PACE - F1 SPRINT

Verstappen was quickest on average, but Sainz was almost as quick despite the numerous fights!
He can win the race. ๐Ÿ€

๐Ÿฅ‡๐Ÿ”ตVER
๐Ÿฅˆ๐Ÿ”ดSAI +0.05s/lap (traffic)
๐Ÿฅ‰๐Ÿ”ดLEC+0.24s/lap (traffic)

๐Ÿ“ˆImpressed: Ferrari.
๐Ÿ“‰Disappointed: Mercedes (Big drop in pace), McL.

The race will probably be down to how the relative performance will differ on a full tank and different tyre compounds.
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