Main contenders for the #JapaneseGP:

🔵RBR: will bring updates (floor?); currently the team to beat

🟠McL: high downforce➡️crucial for the fast corners; Double podium last year

🔴Ferrari: has momentum, aero efficient, will update the rear suspension fairing

Your prediction?🤔

Rear Wings!

Japanese GP: Medium-high load wings

✅Downforce CRUCIAL for the many fast corners➡️More grip/preserves tyres
❌1 DRS zone (vs Australia’s 4): Cannot go max load

🔴Ferrari/🔵RBs: least loaded (top speed over grip)⏬

🟢Aston/🟢Sauber: most loaded⏫

Others: in between

📸 @AlbertFabrega

Rear wings - Japanese GP
(🔵RBR: reference)

🟢Merc: deep lower plane spoon (and less loaded DRS plane)

🔴Ferrari: same wing as in the first 3 races! Beam wing used to set load

🟠McL: compared to Merc, more loaded DRS plane and less loaded lower plane➡️Stronger DRS?

Drawings made by my collaborator @CatalinEpu 🔥

📊TOP SPEEDS SO FAR (FP1)

⚪️Haas was unmatched (327km/h!): low-drag car + less loaded wing➡️might go for slightly more load in the next sessions

🟡RBR had a loaded DRS plane, but an unloaded lower plane: this made their DRS very powerful

🟠McL's DRS doesn't perform well

Both Williams and Alpine DID use DRS during their respective best laps

ALB lifted early into T1, however
Alpine's top speed, instead, is concerning

📊BEST SECTORS
(Everyone on Softs, except for BOT/ZHO/SAR on Mediums)

🟡RBR was quickest in every sector!
Next quickest car:
S1: 🔴Ferrari (+0.03s)
S2: 🔴Ferrari (+0.02s)
S3: 🟢Merc (+0.08s)

🟠McL was quick in S1, but their low top speed held them back in the fast S3

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Verstappen's best FP1 lap was just 0.015s away from the ideal lap (VER S1 and S3, PER S2)⏱

NOR and STR didn't combine their best sectors into their best laps:
🟠NOR would have finished P8 (instead of P10)
🟢STR P11 (instead of P15)

Weak points:
⚫️Merc S1
🟠McL S2
🔴Ferrari S3

🗒Notes on Japanese GP Quali!

🔵VER gained 0.68s over his last pole: LEC/ALO/HAM wondered how they could be so far after good laps!
🟢Aston: in Q1, ALO was P2, STR P16. Better lineup needed
🔴Ferrari has lost their quali pace since FP3
🟠Solid P3 for McL, but was P2-3 last year

Who surprised you the most? And WHY?🤔

AERO PROPERTIES
➡️Higher mean Speed (more performance)
⬆️Higher top speed (lower drag)

🟠McL got P3 with the lowest top speed on the grid! Crazy downforce, but they need less drag for a front row. Same for🟢Mercedes

🔴Ferrari lost their top-speed edge🤔

⚪️Haas=Rocket🚀

BEST SECTORS - Japanese GP Quali
🟡RBR was quickest in all sectors, but as in FP1 PER beat VER in S2

🟠McL's excellent downforce helped them massively in S1: virtually as quick as RBR!

🔴Ferrari was TERRIBLE in S3: slower than HUL, ALB, both RBs...

What's your opinion?🤔

THROTTLE USE - Quali

🟡RedBull got pole by being able to stay full-throttle for 2/3 of the lap: they put the power down better than anyone else

Similar for🟢Merc/🟠McL, but their high drag caused a loss of pace on every straight

🔴Ferrari: no grip, and 'meh' top speed!

INISECTORS - Quali

🟡VER and 🟠NOR were impressively quick in the fast S1 snake, leaving nothing on the table for🔴SAI! Their downforce was unmatched

In addition to that, RBR had lower drag➡️Fastest at the end of most straights

🔴Ferrari was quickest only out of T12/18

RACE PACE - #JapaneseGP

✅Improved the most over 2023 (s/lap):
🥇🟢Aston -1.87 (was terrible last year)
🥈🔴Ferrari -1.72
🥉🟠McL -1.52

❌Got slower:
🟣Alpine +0.08

-LEC was quicker than both Mercedes despite stopping one less time
-ALO matched PIA.
-VER: -0.28s/lap adv.

Race pace last year, for comparison
Only 15 drivers finished the race!
As no Williams driver covered over 90% of the race distance, it is impossible to evaluate their pace improvement, as the conditions would be too different for that

Which team surprised you the most today? 🤔

🛞TYRE WEAR (Per Team and Compound)

✅Best wear:
🔴Ferrari and🟢Aston (on both Hards and Mediums)

❌Worst (by far!):
🟢Mercedes on Hards
🟠McL on Mediums

🔵RBR's wear was moderate, and it didn't impact their excellent pace

⚠️The high wear ruined Mercedes' race

I realised that I made a mistake concerning McL: their race pace last year was 97.54s, and NOT 98.11s

So the team improved 'just' 0.95s/lap

All other values are correct, and the two graphs too

Thanks to those who pointed it out!

Gap to Race Winner

Only LEC and SAI led a lap in addition to VER (after the latter pitted)

In the last stint, LEC and NOR had the most laps on their tyres (27), HAM the least (15): that made him much quicker than both

Still, SAI was even quicker! (on 17-laps old Hards)

💡RedBull lifted through the 130R corner in the first 2 stints to preserve the tyres

The graph shows the speed trap (placed right after the 130R corner, which can be taken full-throttle but without DRS) values

You can notice 🟡RedBull’a bimodal distribution (two wide points: the upper one is their ‘true’ speed, the lower one is relative to lifting in the corner)

Haas reached 309km/h thrice there!🚀

Via @JMP_software

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SECTOR TIMES - Japanese GP

🔥Sainz's sectors were on fire in his last stint!

HAM was quick on 🟡Mediums (on a fresher set). However, Mercedes lacked consistency: notice the big gap in S1 and S2 between the first and second ⚪️Hard sets!⚠️

Made via @JMP_software

Increasing a car’s fuel efficiency from 5km/l to 10km/l will save you DOUBLE the money compared to increasing it from 10km/l to 20km/l 💰

Similarly, going 10km/h quicker in a slower highway segment will save you more time (and produce LESS additional fuel consumption) than doing the same through a faster segment ⏱

As @brrrake correctly pointed out, the same principle applies to F1 cars. Increasing one’s speed through the fast corners will save you less time, and induce more additional tyre wear, compared to doing the same through the slower corners. Red Bull Racing (and their drivers) seem to have grasped this concept: by lifting through the 130R corner (the fastest one in Suzuka), they managed to mitigate tyre wear for a modest loss of pace. 🛞