Ferrari has cooked: in the race simulation, Sainz was 0.59s/lap quicker (on average) than Verstappen in last year's race!😳

RACE PACE
SF24: 96.87s
RB19: 97.46s (+0.59s)
SF23: 98.33s (+1.46s ‼️)

And his top speed was still 9km/h down vs last race➡️Turned-down PU🔥

The team seem to have solved their tyre wear issues, probably to a higher degree than we expected

In the last stint (on Hards) the laptimes improved throughout the stint: the tyre wear didn't even offset the decreasing fuel load!

So far, Ferrari IMHO looks clearly 2nd quickest

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TOP SPEEDS - DAY 2
(During the fastest laps)

Red Bull 320km/h (-3 vs quali)
Williams 317
Alpine 315
Ferrari 315 (-10 vs quali‼️)
Aston 315
Merc 314
VCARB 312
McL 311
Haas 302⬅️Working on tyre deg

💡Ferrari on a lower PU mode
🚀RB20 might have even less drag than the RB19!

📊SF24 vs RB20 (and comparison with 2023 quali)

RB20's top speed and cornering speeds were higher; yet, SF24 produced an overall quicker lap

The SF24 is still far from the SF23's top speed and high-speed cornering performance➡️Time to be gained there!🛠

I think we can draw two conclusions:

1) Ferrari was still way down on power, at least on the main straight (-10km/h vs last year is massive, and cannot be explained by a slightly more loaded wing alone).

2) RedBull probably has further reduced their drag (to just lose 3km/h to ‘full beans qualifying PU mode’).

I'm preparing an extensive long-run analysis right now!🤩

Meanwhile, here is my (very early, so don't count on it!) pecking order prediction:
🥇Red Bull
🥈Ferrari
🥉McLaren
4️⃣5️⃣Aston/Mercedes
6️⃣7️⃣VCARB/Alpine
8️⃣9️⃣🔟Sauber, Williams, Haas

What's yours? What surprised you?🤔

The Race Simulations show that🔴Ferrari has a sizeable advantage over🟠McLaren! (+0.975s/lap on average)
On hards, the gap grew to 2s/lap!

⏱Improvement over last year's race:
Ferrari: -1.48s/lap➡️From 4th fastest to 1st
McL: -0.54s/lap➡️From 6th to 2nd

10kg fuel ~ 0.3s/lap

I'm analysing the testing data during the weekend: follow me and activate the notifications so as not to miss them!

And if you are a real data nerd and want to support my work you're going to love the additional in-depth analyses I'll post on here..😉

https://www.buymeacoffee.com/f1dataanalysis

Ready to compete with the best F1 strategists?
My Fantasy League is finally online!🤩

🏆Prize for the winner
📊Looking at the data will become crucial!

If you joined last year, you're already set
Otherwise, download the GridRival app and use this link:
https://gridrival.app.link/7duqlADFtHb

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The league is called ‘Formula Data Analysis and his Strategists’

Just 5 days left to set your team!

CARS COMPARISON-DAY3 BEST LAP💡

🔴SF24: best laptime and top speed
🔵RB20: same top speed and fastest in T6➡️Great aero efficiency?

LEC and RUS used softer tyres (C4 vs C3)
⬇️
🟠PIA and🟢ALO [more fuel too?] were quick considering that!
🔵RB20 looks mighty

What's your take?🤔

I will post additional analyses in the next few days!🤩

Meanwhile, the nerdy F1-data addicted will love the 52 analyses I've already posted on my repository📊
👇
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/f1dataanalysis/pre-season-testing-analyses-repository

We'll see some record cornering speeds in 2024!💡

Sainz had a 135km/h minimum speed in Turn 15: 6km/h more than the fastest F1 car of all time! (Mercedes W11)
Thanks to that, the SF24 has been consistently the fastest in sector 3🔥

God knows what the RB20 will do in quali😳

Before someone says ‘But the RB19 is the most dominant car ever…’ —>
- On a single lap, the Mercedes W11 is the F1 car which produced the lowest lap times ever;
- ‘Fastest’ depends on the ruleset too and does not imply ‘most dominant’ (even though the W11 was extremely dominant too).

Ferrari made a massive step in race pace vs last year (~1.4s/lap), but the RB20 is the car to beat!🏆

They had the same pace over a race distance
However, Verstappen had minimal tyre wear (even on the softs!), indicating that he was not even pushing 100%😳
Crazy consistency👌

The two race simulations were made at the same time (during DAY 3):

Leclerc used a different setup than Sainz the day before and pushed more➡️Slightly better lap times than him but more tyre wear as well.

Leclerc's pace was excellent on all compounds, but the wear was similarly high too.

On the Hards, Verstrappen's lap times improved even when taking the decreasing fuel load into account!

Which team has the longest gears?⚙️

Rules allow the full fuel flow (100kg/h) from 10500rpm onwards➡️engines can reach their maximum power

The graph shows each car's speed in VIII gear at 10500rpm:
🟠McL has the longest gear
🟣Alpine the shortest
Less than 6km/h between them!

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🗒Notes on #BahrainGP Track!

-Very abrasive asphalt➡️High Tyre wear➡️C1-C3 (hard) compounds to compensate🛞
-Longitudinal grip (traction and braking) is crucial for laptime⏱
-Mitigating wear on the rear left tyre will be critical!🔥

What’s your prediction?🤔

📸 : @pirellisport

Bahrain GP Weekend Schedule

Don't forget everything is a day earlier than normal. So Practice sessions start on Thursday, Quali on Friday, Race on Saturday!

Schedule image shows TRACK TIMES!

For full schedule including F2 & F3 series visit:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.formula-1-gulf-air-bahrain-grand-prix-2024-timetable.Ew65oxdOdqxlil2DFngCz.html

Rear wings!👀

#BahrainGP: moderate load levels💡
✅Acceptable drag on the 4 straights
✅Good traction, braking and cornering➡️Tyre wear under control!👌

RedBull/McL: Medium-high load🔼 (less top speed, more grip)
Merc/Alpine/Aston: Medium▶️
Ferrari/VCARB/Williams: Medium-low🔽

TOP SPEEDS - FP1

🔴Ferrari still 13km/h off their 2023 quali

🟠McL used a very conservative deployment setting on the main straight: NOR was 11km/h slower than RIC there (299 vs 310km/h), but slightly quicker on the back straight (307 vs 306km/h)

⚪️Haas didn't use the DRS