Event Alpha Radar
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Evidence-first prediction-market intelligence. Probability gaps, source links, counter-risk and alerts. Research only. Not financial advice.
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Event Alpha Radar - high-conviction brief
Board: https://ecoineliteclub.com

YES | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 2% / Model 15% / Gap +13% / Score 66
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Market 23% / Model 35% / Gap +12% / Score 64
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Market 0% / Model 11% / Gap +11% / Score 62
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: Low liquidity can create false probability gaps.

YES | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 6% / Model 18% / Gap +12% / Score 60
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
Event Alpha Radar - high-conviction brief
Board: https://ecoineliteclub.com

YES | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 2% / Model 15% / Gap +13% / Score 66
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Market 23% / Model 35% / Gap +12% / Score 64
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Market 0% / Model 11% / Gap +11% / Score 63
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: Low liquidity can create false probability gaps.

YES | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 6% / Model 18% / Gap +12% / Score 60
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Market 5% / Model 16% / Gap +11% / Score 60
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
Event Alpha Radar - high-conviction brief
Board: https://ecoineliteclub.com

YES | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 2% / Model 15% / Gap +13% / Score 66
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Market 23% / Model 35% / Gap +12% / Score 64
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Market 0% / Model 11% / Gap +11% / Score 63
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: Low liquidity can create false probability gaps.

YES | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 6% / Model 18% / Gap +12% / Score 60
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
Event Alpha Radar - high-conviction brief
Board: https://ecoineliteclub.com

YES | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 2% / Model 15% / Gap +13% / Score 66
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Market 23% / Model 35% / Gap +12% / Score 64
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Market 0% / Model 10% / Gap +10% / Score 61
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: Low liquidity can create false probability gaps.

YES | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 6% / Model 18% / Gap +12% / Score 60
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
Event Alpha Radar - high-conviction brief
Board: https://ecoineliteclub.com

YES | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 2% / Model 15% / Gap +13% / Score 66
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Market 23% / Model 35% / Gap +12% / Score 64
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Market 0% / Model 10% / Gap +10% / Score 61
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: Low liquidity can create false probability gaps.

YES | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 6% / Model 18% / Gap +12% / Score 60
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
Event Alpha Radar - high-conviction brief
Board: https://ecoineliteclub.com

YES | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 2% / Model 15% / Gap +13% / Score 66
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Market 23% / Model 35% / Gap +12% / Score 64
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Market 0% / Model 10% / Gap +10% / Score 61
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: Low liquidity can create false probability gaps.

YES | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 6% / Model 18% / Gap +12% / Score 60
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
Event Alpha Radar - high-conviction brief
Board: https://ecoineliteclub.com

YES | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 2% / Model 15% / Gap +13% / Score 66
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Market 23% / Model 35% / Gap +12% / Score 64
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 6% / Model 18% / Gap +12% / Score 60
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
Event Alpha Radar - high-conviction brief
Board: https://ecoineliteclub.com

YES | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 2% / Model 15% / Gap +13% / Score 66
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Market 23% / Model 35% / Gap +12% / Score 64
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 6% / Model 18% / Gap +12% / Score 60
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
Event Alpha Radar - high-conviction brief
Board: https://ecoineliteclub.com

YES | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 2% / Model 15% / Gap +13% / Score 66
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Market 23% / Model 35% / Gap +12% / Score 64
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 6% / Model 18% / Gap +12% / Score 60
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
Event Alpha Radar - high-conviction brief
Board: https://ecoineliteclub.com

YES | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 2% / Model 15% / Gap +13% / Score 66
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Market 23% / Model 35% / Gap +12% / Score 64
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 6% / Model 18% / Gap +12% / Score 60
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
Event Alpha Radar - high-conviction brief
Board: https://ecoineliteclub.com

YES | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 2% / Model 15% / Gap +13% / Score 66
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Market 23% / Model 35% / Gap +12% / Score 64
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

YES | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 6% / Model 18% / Gap +12% / Score 60
Why: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
Event Alpha Radar - high-conviction brief
Board: http://127.0.0.1:3020

NO | Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova
Market 26% / Model 1% / Gap -25% / Score 53
Why: Not a HOT read yet; keep tracking until edge and evidence improve.
Risk: Short-window acceleration detected.

YES | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Market 86% / Model 99% / Gap +13% / Score 42
Why: Not a HOT read yet; keep tracking until edge and evidence improve.
Risk: 24h move is large enough to review.

YES | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 20% / Model 27% / Gap +7% / Score 25
Why: Not a HOT read yet; keep tracking until edge and evidence improve.
Risk: High-volume market with no sharp price trigger yet.

YES | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 19% / Model 26% / Gap +7% / Score 22
Why: Not a HOT read yet; keep tracking until edge and evidence improve.
Risk: High-volume market with no sharp price trigger yet.

YES | Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?
Market 12% / Model 19% / Gap +7% / Score 22
Why: Not a HOT read yet; keep tracking until edge and evidence improve.
Risk: High-volume market with no sharp price trigger yet.

Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
Event Alpha Radar - high-conviction brief
Board: http://127.0.0.1:3020

YES | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Market 86% / Model 99% / Gap +13% / Score 42
Why: Not a HOT read yet; keep tracking until edge and evidence improve.
Risk: 24h move is large enough to review.

YES | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 20% / Model 27% / Gap +7% / Score 25
Why: Not a HOT read yet; keep tracking until edge and evidence improve.
Risk: High-volume market with no sharp price trigger yet.

YES | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 19% / Model 26% / Gap +7% / Score 22
Why: Not a HOT read yet; keep tracking until edge and evidence improve.
Risk: High-volume market with no sharp price trigger yet.

YES | Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?
Market 12% / Model 19% / Gap +7% / Score 22
Why: Not a HOT read yet; keep tracking until edge and evidence improve.
Risk: High-volume market with no sharp price trigger yet.

YES | Will France win on 2026-07-09?
Market 61% / Model 67% / Gap +6% / Score 20
Why: Not a HOT read yet; keep tracking until edge and evidence improve.
Risk: High-volume market with no sharp price trigger yet.

Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
Event Alpha Radar - high-conviction brief
Board: http://127.0.0.1:3020

YES | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Market 86% / Model 99% / Gap +13% / Score 42
Why: Not a HOT read yet; keep tracking until edge and evidence improve.
Risk: 24h move is large enough to review.

YES | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 20% / Model 27% / Gap +7% / Score 25
Why: Not a HOT read yet; keep tracking until edge and evidence improve.
Risk: High-volume market with no sharp price trigger yet.

YES | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 19% / Model 26% / Gap +7% / Score 22
Why: Not a HOT read yet; keep tracking until edge and evidence improve.
Risk: High-volume market with no sharp price trigger yet.

YES | Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?
Market 12% / Model 19% / Gap +7% / Score 22
Why: Not a HOT read yet; keep tracking until edge and evidence improve.
Risk: High-volume market with no sharp price trigger yet.

YES | Will France win on 2026-07-09?
Market 61% / Model 67% / Gap +6% / Score 20
Why: Not a HOT read yet; keep tracking until edge and evidence improve.
Risk: High-volume market with no sharp price trigger yet.

Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
Event Alpha Radar remote self-test passed. Bot delivery from VPS is active. Research intelligence only.
Event Alpha Radar - daily watchlist (2026-07-09)
Digest threshold: score 35+
Board: http://127.0.0.1:3020

What changed:

1. Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Market 86% / Model 99% / Gap +13% / Score 42
24H move +9% / Liquidity $498K / Volume $882K
Read: Not a HOT read yet; keep tracking until edge and evidence improve.
Risk: 24h move is large enough to review.

2. Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Market 0% / Model 13% / Gap +13% / Score 38
24H move 0% / Liquidity $1.4M / Volume $575K
Read: Not a HOT read yet; keep tracking until edge and evidence improve.
Risk: Endpoint markets can look active while offering little usable edge.

Use this as a watchlist, not a trade command.
Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
Event Alpha Radar - daily watchlist (2026-07-09)
Digest threshold: score 35+
Board: https://ecoineliteclub.com

What changed:

1. Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 2% / Model 15% / Gap +13% / Score 66
24H move +9% / Liquidity $12M / Volume $2.6M
Read: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

2. Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?
Market 26% / Model 38% / Gap +12% / Score 64
24H move +9% / Liquidity $2.5M / Volume $635K
Read: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

3. Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?
Market 7% / Model 18% / Gap +11% / Score 60
24H move +8% / Liquidity $1.9M / Volume $649K
Read: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

4. Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Morocco?
Market 3% / Model 13% / Gap +10% / Score 59
24H move +9% / Liquidity $469K / Volume $1.7M
Read: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

5. Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Morocco?
Market 1% / Model 10% / Gap +9% / Score 59
24H move +9% / Liquidity $799K / Volume $1.2M
Read: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

Use this as a watchlist, not a trade command.
Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
Event Alpha Radar - daily watchlist (2026-07-09)
Digest threshold: score 35+
Board: https://ecoineliteclub.com

What changed:

1. Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 2% / Model 15% / Gap +13% / Score 66
24H move +9% / Liquidity $12M / Volume $2.6M
Read: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

2. Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?
Market 26% / Model 38% / Gap +12% / Score 64
24H move +9% / Liquidity $2.5M / Volume $635K
Read: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

3. Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?
Market 7% / Model 18% / Gap +11% / Score 60
24H move +8% / Liquidity $1.9M / Volume $649K
Read: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

4. Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Morocco?
Market 3% / Model 13% / Gap +10% / Score 59
24H move +9% / Liquidity $469K / Volume $1.7M
Read: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

5. Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Morocco?
Market 1% / Model 10% / Gap +9% / Score 59
24H move +9% / Liquidity $799K / Volume $1.2M
Read: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

Use this as a watchlist, not a trade command.
Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
/revoke
Event Alpha Radar - daily watchlist (2026-07-09)
Digest threshold: score 35+
Board: https://ecoineliteclub.com

What changed:

1. Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market 2% / Model 15% / Gap +13% / Score 66
24H move +9% / Liquidity $12M / Volume $2.6M
Read: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

2. Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?
Market 26% / Model 38% / Gap +12% / Score 64
24H move +9% / Liquidity $2.6M / Volume $644K
Read: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

3. Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?
Market 7% / Model 18% / Gap +11% / Score 60
24H move +8% / Liquidity $1.8M / Volume $654K
Read: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

4. Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Morocco?
Market 4% / Model 14% / Gap +10% / Score 59
24H move +9% / Liquidity $449K / Volume $1.7M
Read: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

5. Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Morocco?
Market 1% / Model 10% / Gap +9% / Score 59
24H move +9% / Liquidity $789K / Volume $1.2M
Read: Model estimate diverges from market-implied probability.
Risk: High-liquidity markets can reprice quickly before alerts travel.

Use this as a watchlist, not a trade command.
Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.
Event Alpha Radar - high-conviction brief
Board: https://ecoineliteclub.com

YES | Fed cuts rates by September meeting
Market 42% / Model 56% / Gap +14% / Score 86
Why: probability jumped on softer labor data
Risk: next CPI print can reverse the setup

OVER | ETH ETF net inflow exceeds weekly consensus
Market 35% / Model 47% / Gap +12% / Score 79
Why: ETH spot strength outpaced BTC
Risk: late-day issuer data can lag

YES | US stablecoin bill advances from committee
Market 31% / Model 44% / Gap +13% / Score 82
Why: policy news cluster accelerated
Risk: procedural timing can slip

Research intelligence only. Not investment advice.