IFB Industries price volume breakout from 7 years C&H formation,support 1465-1425 on dips.Keep an eye

~Volume up with high delivery in previous 2 months

👆🏻👆🏻Sharing chart again as got deleted by mistake

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Alicon Castalloy price volume breakout from ascending base on medium term,support 1075-1031 on dips.

📌Mcap 1800 cr
📌Order book of 9000 cr expected in next 5 years

~Volume spurt 5x this week
~High delivery

#Inox Wind
#Turnaround Story

India is inching towards an incremental  wind capacity of 100 GW over the next 6-8  years.  a  realistic  estimate  of  adding  on  8-10  GW  annually  over  the  years  and  ramp  it  up  to  achieve  the  target  of  140GW  wind  capacity  by  2030.

Order book👉2.7 GW  -  as  on  May’24..

Management  guidance on  execution  for FY24-25 around 800 MW;  1.2GW  execution for  FY25-26  (though  their  current  capacity  is  around  2.5  GW).. 

There  lies  the  challenge  with  execution  and  management  believes  to  graduallly  ramp-up  their  executional  levels  to  2  GW  in  the  coming  years.

Co. moved on towards mfg. of 3MW wind turbines.

Capex Requirements - 50 to 75 crores for new molds

For  turnkey  projects  with  the  supply  of  equipments  and  value-added  services,  the  realization  stands  at  6  crores  per  MW.  (5.2  crores  net  of  taxes)

EBITDA - 14% to 15% can be maintainable

External net interest bearing debt has  been  brought below 655 crores; Management is confident of repaying mostly, if not all of the 600 crores by HY1’24-25. (Though silent on the means of repayment either from internal accruals or new fund raising…)

Valuation::
Per  guidance,  estimated  topline  for  FY24-25  around  5000  crores  (Gross)  and  4.1  crores  net  of  taxes.  Management  is  confident  of  maintaining  a  OPM  margin  of  14  -  15%  and  without  considering  other  incomes  from  other  value-added  services  (which  they  believe  to  be  recurring  in  nature) ….  and  the  net  interest  expense  (roughly  60-70  crores  for  the  o/s.  655  crores  of  loans..  but  since  management  is  eyeing  towards  repaying  the  same  before  the  HY1  let’s assume  a  ballpark  figure  of  25  crores  for  FY25)

PAT  works  out  around  500  (NPM  margin  of  10%) ,  we  are  looking  for  a  forward  EPS  of  4  and  Fairvalue  in  the  range  of  160  to  200  (even  at  a  higher  PE  range  of  40  -  50)  and  currently  trading  at  165…  growth  has  been  almost  priced  in..

2  years  forward (with  an  estimated 7500  crore  topline)  and  forward  EPS  of  5.5  -  6  (Expecting  some  margin  expansion  as  well)  may  results  in  the  value  range  of  240  to  300.

Coromandel International poised at price volume breakout showing relative strength in today's session despite midcap offloading,support 1269-1245.

~Volume and Delivery up 4x

📌Company entering into drone sector with investment in start ups,has already recently received orders from Indian Army and IFFCO for logistics drones and agricultural drones respectively