Powergrid Infra Investment Trust looks good after decent correction from highs as it's trading at IPO price,support 93-91. Keep an eye

📌Stock is one of the cheapest in PSU basket with Mcap 8895 cr only
📌PE just 8 vs 30 Industry
📌ROCE 14
📌Debt free almost
📌Intrinsic Value 110
📌PEG 0.27

IFB Industries price volume breakout from 7 years C&H formation,support 1465-1425 on dips.Keep an eye

~Volume up with high delivery in previous 2 months

👆🏻👆🏻Sharing chart again as got deleted by mistake

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Alicon Castalloy price volume breakout from ascending base on medium term,support 1075-1031 on dips.

📌Mcap 1800 cr
📌Order book of 9000 cr expected in next 5 years

~Volume spurt 5x this week
~High delivery

#Inox Wind
#Turnaround Story

India is inching towards an incremental  wind capacity of 100 GW over the next 6-8  years.  a  realistic  estimate  of  adding  on  8-10  GW  annually  over  the  years  and  ramp  it  up  to  achieve  the  target  of  140GW  wind  capacity  by  2030.

Order book👉2.7 GW  -  as  on  May’24..

Management  guidance on  execution  for FY24-25 around 800 MW;  1.2GW  execution for  FY25-26  (though  their  current  capacity  is  around  2.5  GW).. 

There  lies  the  challenge  with  execution  and  management  believes  to  graduallly  ramp-up  their  executional  levels  to  2  GW  in  the  coming  years.

Co. moved on towards mfg. of 3MW wind turbines.

Capex Requirements - 50 to 75 crores for new molds

For  turnkey  projects  with  the  supply  of  equipments  and  value-added  services,  the  realization  stands  at  6  crores  per  MW.  (5.2  crores  net  of  taxes)

EBITDA - 14% to 15% can be maintainable

External net interest bearing debt has  been  brought below 655 crores; Management is confident of repaying mostly, if not all of the 600 crores by HY1’24-25. (Though silent on the means of repayment either from internal accruals or new fund raising…)

Valuation::
Per  guidance,  estimated  topline  for  FY24-25  around  5000  crores  (Gross)  and  4.1  crores  net  of  taxes.  Management  is  confident  of  maintaining  a  OPM  margin  of  14  -  15%  and  without  considering  other  incomes  from  other  value-added  services  (which  they  believe  to  be  recurring  in  nature) ….  and  the  net  interest  expense  (roughly  60-70  crores  for  the  o/s.  655  crores  of  loans..  but  since  management  is  eyeing  towards  repaying  the  same  before  the  HY1  let’s assume  a  ballpark  figure  of  25  crores  for  FY25)

PAT  works  out  around  500  (NPM  margin  of  10%) ,  we  are  looking  for  a  forward  EPS  of  4  and  Fairvalue  in  the  range  of  160  to  200  (even  at  a  higher  PE  range  of  40  -  50)  and  currently  trading  at  165…  growth  has  been  almost  priced  in..

2  years  forward (with  an  estimated 7500  crore  topline)  and  forward  EPS  of  5.5  -  6  (Expecting  some  margin  expansion  as  well)  may  results  in  the  value  range  of  240  to  300.