Max India Ltd ascending base breakout after runaway gap,support 95-91.Keep an eye

Sharing chart,look at the accumulation strength👀👀

Sugar stocks buzzing since last Friday. Now everyone running after it. We got in when the tide was about to turn. Now many stocks up 50% in a month. Early mover advantage 🎯🎯💥💥
#Boom
#AnalysisThatMatters

New Year Pick:
📌First half of the year shorters/put options buyers dhamaka time
📌Second half of the year longs/call options buyers dhamaka time

Giving view much in advance. Save it and try to find opportunities accordingly✔️✔️

Friday's blast💥💥

GIC Hsg Finance good price volume breakout cmp 196,support 186-179.Last week's volume was 5x

Sugar Stocks In Focus

GST Rate for Ethyl Alcohol or Biofuel-supplied to refineries for blending with motor spirit (petrol) is reduced from 18% to 5%🔥🔥

You just need to be ahead of the majority and noise.Now all good news will start flashing in Sugar in coming months🎯🎯
#Meetha
#Sweet

Dark horse pick:
Strides Pharma,support 325-295

Stock is at 10 year support zone.It's at bottom of a bad business cycle, and on the cusp of a turnaround. These situations offer excellent risk adjusted rewards. A short thread on one such great management - Arun Kumar and Strides Pharma.

1.Arun Kumar is an Indian pharma legend. He uses Strides as an incubator and has spun off many business worth billions of $. Strides has one of the highest ANDA filings in the world. They are a major generics player in US, Europe and Africa, and moving towards complex molecules

2.A confluence of business strategy changes, macro factors and bad luck threw Strides off last year. The US business saw massive price erosion. One of their biggest molecules Ranitidine was banned in the US. The war disrupted supply chains. The stock has crashed to 10yr lows

3.After years of investments, their world class Biopharma CDMO subsidiary Stelis finally started commercial operations with the Russian covid vaccine. Then the war happened + vaccine demand reduced, and they are stuck with inventory, further hampering cash flows.

4.Arun Kumar returned as full time CEO, focusing on network optimization and cost reduction. Q2FY23 was the best ever quarter for the US business at $60m revenues. They are to receive around 600cr Arrotex (an earlier sale) this month. No more investments in Stelis from Strides.

5.Strides guides net debt to be at 1000cr by FY23 (over 3000cr now). Reducing price erosion and operational efficiencies means high odds of the guidance playing out. Last week a US court dismissed the evidence that ranitidine causes cancer. Strides may be able to relaunch too.

6.Possible upside?
At 3200cr mcap, it is available at 0.9 times sales (10 yr average is about 2.5). Barring any more bad luck, they should get to 500+cr operational cash flow in FY24. At 15-20 times long term average multiple, could trade at 7.5-10kcr mcap. Plus Stelis free.

7.Summary of thesis:
- Management ability top notch
- Coming out of a rare situation where everything went wrong
- Strengthening core business and huge optionality with Stelis
- Debt reduction and improving cash flows to hit books soon
- Throw away starting valuations

Risks:
- Continued price erosion
- Debt reduction not playing out
- No liquidation of Russian vaccine

We track developments closely and believe there can be swift and sharp returns. But with high debt, this is risky.
If things doesn't pan out then we may sell anytime.Please do own due diligence

NiftyIT after recent rally is now at pivot support and fibo zone,looks good for low risk entry.Keep an eye on IT stocks as offering favourable RR
#LiveMarketUpdate