EquiChain Wealth
Stance - Change to NEUTRAL Earlier - Withdrawal of Accommodation Positive for Banking stocks
Banknifty @ 51595
After volatile session yesterday due to weekly options expiry in Banknifty and reacting to RBI MPC policy. Banknifty is up by 600 points and we expect further upside from current level.
U.S. CPI & Core CPI data due today at 6:00 PM - IST.
We maintain positive view on Banking stocks & we see current level as good to accumulate.
Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf
After volatile session yesterday due to weekly options expiry in Banknifty and reacting to RBI MPC policy. Banknifty is up by 600 points and we expect further upside from current level.
U.S. CPI & Core CPI data due today at 6:00 PM - IST.
We maintain positive view on Banking stocks & we see current level as good to accumulate.
Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf
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EquiChain Wealth
Observation BJP win in Haryana could provide boost to PSU 's Keeping PSU in watchlist Disclaimer: Already allocated in our different concepts Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf
Defense PSU 's - We see defense stocks has made bottom in near term and we see current level as accumulation zone.
Fresh investment - View should be medium term / Maharashtra & Jharkhand election result on 23-Nov-24
Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf
Fresh investment - View should be medium term / Maharashtra & Jharkhand election result on 23-Nov-24
Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf
Equichain Wealth Advisors - Theme for 2025 - Market view & Strategy
U.S. market - Pro-Trump rally has fizzled out & Crypto Currency given up gain by around 50%
1) Tariff Trump - Uncertainty over tariff hike & its impact on inflation is uncertain.
2) Crypto Currency - Major crypto currency given up 50% gain.
3) Central bankers - U.S. Fed after rate cut in December 2024 & guided for only 1 rate cut in 2025
4) Next US Fed meeting on 19-Mar-25 - no change expected. U.S. Fed meeting on 7-May-25 - hope of rate cut at 24%.
Indian market - Major indices down by 13% to 15% & Mid-cap & Small-cap down by around 25%.
1) Indian market has made high of around September 2024 - Major indices are down by around 12% - 14%.
2) Mid-cap index made top around September 2024 while Small-cap made fresh life time high in December 2024. Mid-cap index is down by 20% - 22% & Small-cap index is down by around 24% - 26%.
3) Large cap stocks are down in range of 15% - 30%, Midcap stocks are down in range of 20% to 50% & Small-cap stocks are down in range of 25% to 70% on higher side.
What is current market status - Indian market
1) Premium Valuation has come down significantly. Nifty forward PE is currently trading around 18.5 times considering 8% growth in Nifty 50 EPS approximately.
2) Valuation premium has significantly eroded in Mid-cap & Small-cap index & Mid-cap & Small-cap Stocks.
Potential Negative Factors - Global & Domestic
1) In case of any major recession in U.S. could lead to another round of selling in global market including emerging market & Indian equity market.
2) President Trump attempt to end war is facing resistance from EU as they continue to support Ukraine. U.S. & EU have their eyes on natural resources and rare earth material of Ukraine.
3) Tariff war could lead to inflation in U.S. - big negative for interest rate to come down & economy in general.
4) Possibility of recession in U.S. - could lead to melt-down in global market.
5) Indian market along with other emerging market could also get impacted as accelerate FII outflows could lead another round of sell-off.
6) FII selling in Indian market has been big reason for fall in Indian market in last 4 - 6 months.
Potential positive factors - Global
1) Till December - U.S. has manage soft landing, continuation of soft landing could be big positive for global market including emerging market & U.S.
2) U.S. Reciprocal tariff to be implemented from 2-Apr-25 - if no major negative surprise could trigger relief rally.
3) President 's Flip / Flop is now getting discounted by market and no major negative impact on U.S. economy & U.S. inflation could be positive for global market.
Potential positive factors - Indian factor
1) Budget announced on 1-Feb-25 - Boost to consumption & continuity maintained.
2) RBI MPC cuts rate on 7-Feb-25 by 25-bps and latest inflation figures @ 3.61% released on 12-Mar-25 indicate another rate cut possible in April 2025 - RBI MPC meeting.
3) Political stability after Delhi assembly election result on 8-Feb-25.
4) Earnings revival in next quarterly earning could provide much needed positive trigger.
5) March end selling pressure is expected to be over in next 5 - 8 trading days.
Market View & Strategy - for 2025
1) After recent fall in Indian market - we remain hopeful of recovery. Recovery should be supported by earning growth.
2) Large cap & Fundamentally good stocks will lead first round of rally. Mid-cap & Small-cap will join only after liquidity situation improves globally as Mid-cap & Small-cap has outperformed in last 3 - 4 years after COVID-19.
3) US Market has erased rally seen after post 5-Nov-24 - U.S. election result. Indian market could be beneficiary as positive earning growth could bring FII investment back.
4) New leader - Sector / Stocks are yet to be identified as we see this as pause and earning growth and change in fundamental will provide further clarity.
Which Sectors / Stocks - could lead next round of bull market
U.S. market - Pro-Trump rally has fizzled out & Crypto Currency given up gain by around 50%
1) Tariff Trump - Uncertainty over tariff hike & its impact on inflation is uncertain.
2) Crypto Currency - Major crypto currency given up 50% gain.
3) Central bankers - U.S. Fed after rate cut in December 2024 & guided for only 1 rate cut in 2025
4) Next US Fed meeting on 19-Mar-25 - no change expected. U.S. Fed meeting on 7-May-25 - hope of rate cut at 24%.
Indian market - Major indices down by 13% to 15% & Mid-cap & Small-cap down by around 25%.
1) Indian market has made high of around September 2024 - Major indices are down by around 12% - 14%.
2) Mid-cap index made top around September 2024 while Small-cap made fresh life time high in December 2024. Mid-cap index is down by 20% - 22% & Small-cap index is down by around 24% - 26%.
3) Large cap stocks are down in range of 15% - 30%, Midcap stocks are down in range of 20% to 50% & Small-cap stocks are down in range of 25% to 70% on higher side.
What is current market status - Indian market
1) Premium Valuation has come down significantly. Nifty forward PE is currently trading around 18.5 times considering 8% growth in Nifty 50 EPS approximately.
2) Valuation premium has significantly eroded in Mid-cap & Small-cap index & Mid-cap & Small-cap Stocks.
Potential Negative Factors - Global & Domestic
1) In case of any major recession in U.S. could lead to another round of selling in global market including emerging market & Indian equity market.
2) President Trump attempt to end war is facing resistance from EU as they continue to support Ukraine. U.S. & EU have their eyes on natural resources and rare earth material of Ukraine.
3) Tariff war could lead to inflation in U.S. - big negative for interest rate to come down & economy in general.
4) Possibility of recession in U.S. - could lead to melt-down in global market.
5) Indian market along with other emerging market could also get impacted as accelerate FII outflows could lead another round of sell-off.
6) FII selling in Indian market has been big reason for fall in Indian market in last 4 - 6 months.
Potential positive factors - Global
1) Till December - U.S. has manage soft landing, continuation of soft landing could be big positive for global market including emerging market & U.S.
2) U.S. Reciprocal tariff to be implemented from 2-Apr-25 - if no major negative surprise could trigger relief rally.
3) President 's Flip / Flop is now getting discounted by market and no major negative impact on U.S. economy & U.S. inflation could be positive for global market.
Potential positive factors - Indian factor
1) Budget announced on 1-Feb-25 - Boost to consumption & continuity maintained.
2) RBI MPC cuts rate on 7-Feb-25 by 25-bps and latest inflation figures @ 3.61% released on 12-Mar-25 indicate another rate cut possible in April 2025 - RBI MPC meeting.
3) Political stability after Delhi assembly election result on 8-Feb-25.
4) Earnings revival in next quarterly earning could provide much needed positive trigger.
5) March end selling pressure is expected to be over in next 5 - 8 trading days.
Market View & Strategy - for 2025
1) After recent fall in Indian market - we remain hopeful of recovery. Recovery should be supported by earning growth.
2) Large cap & Fundamentally good stocks will lead first round of rally. Mid-cap & Small-cap will join only after liquidity situation improves globally as Mid-cap & Small-cap has outperformed in last 3 - 4 years after COVID-19.
3) US Market has erased rally seen after post 5-Nov-24 - U.S. election result. Indian market could be beneficiary as positive earning growth could bring FII investment back.
4) New leader - Sector / Stocks are yet to be identified as we see this as pause and earning growth and change in fundamental will provide further clarity.
Which Sectors / Stocks - could lead next round of bull market
1) U.S. election result - President Trump tariff policy & Geo-political policy is disruptive in nature.
2) We have seen such disruptive change post COVID-19. Back in 2020 - Market rally started from July 2020 with stimulus package by government and Central banks across the world.
3) This time disruption will be sector specific / stocks specific - Global growth rate & interest rate will remain important factors.
Equichain Wealth Advisors - Sectors in focus
1) IT - apart of disruption from U.S (noise so far), fundamental of company has been gradually improving - reflecting to last 3 quarterly earnings and guidance by top IT companies.
2) Metal - China is largest producer of metals in the world and will use as tool to counter U.S. tariff.
3) FMCG & Consumable - After union budget on 1-Feb-25 and steps announced by Finance minister regarding tax benefit to Middle-class - will lead to consumption boost.
4) Banks - RBI has been actively taking pro-growth steps after budget announcement, liquidity infusion announced in last 1-month and steps taken to boost growth is key positive. Assets quality in next quarterly earnings will be key to watch out for.
5) Defense PSU 's & Private - Major contracts & order book for defense companies are of Indian government. Defense budget continues to remain high. Valuation premium has came down significantly and we see current valuation attractively priced at current level.
Time to start partial investment - as on 16-Mar-25
We will soon share details of our concept
1) Equichain Growth and Value Unlocking Concept
2) Equichain Flexi-cap concept
2) We have seen such disruptive change post COVID-19. Back in 2020 - Market rally started from July 2020 with stimulus package by government and Central banks across the world.
3) This time disruption will be sector specific / stocks specific - Global growth rate & interest rate will remain important factors.
Equichain Wealth Advisors - Sectors in focus
1) IT - apart of disruption from U.S (noise so far), fundamental of company has been gradually improving - reflecting to last 3 quarterly earnings and guidance by top IT companies.
2) Metal - China is largest producer of metals in the world and will use as tool to counter U.S. tariff.
3) FMCG & Consumable - After union budget on 1-Feb-25 and steps announced by Finance minister regarding tax benefit to Middle-class - will lead to consumption boost.
4) Banks - RBI has been actively taking pro-growth steps after budget announcement, liquidity infusion announced in last 1-month and steps taken to boost growth is key positive. Assets quality in next quarterly earnings will be key to watch out for.
5) Defense PSU 's & Private - Major contracts & order book for defense companies are of Indian government. Defense budget continues to remain high. Valuation premium has came down significantly and we see current valuation attractively priced at current level.
Time to start partial investment - as on 16-Mar-25
We will soon share details of our concept
1) Equichain Growth and Value Unlocking Concept
2) Equichain Flexi-cap concept
U.S. Fed meeting outcome on 19-Mar-25 – Rate unchanged @ 4.25% - 4.50%.
• FED INTEREST RATE DECISION 4.50%; EST. 4.50%; PREV. 4.50%
• FED INTEREST RATE FUTURES PRICE IN 56 BPS IN CUTS THIS YEAR AFTER FED HOLDS RATES STEADY, UNCHANGED FROM BEFORE STATEMENT RELEASE
• FED CUTS 2025 GDP GROWTH PROJECTION TO 1.7% FROM 2.1% IN DECEMBER
• FED RAISES 2025 UNEMPLOYMENT FORECAST TO 4.4% FROM 4.3% IN DECEMBER
• FED RAISES 2025 PCE INFLATION FORECAST TO 2.7% FROM 2.5% IN DECEMBER
• FED RAISES 2025 CORE PCE INFLATION FORECAST TO 2.8% FROM 2.5% IN DECEMBER
• U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TUMBLES AFTER FED DOT PLOT STILL SHOWS TWO RATE CUTS THIS YEAR
• FED'S POWELL: ECONOMY IS STRONG OVERALL
• POWELL: IN THE LABOR MARKET, CONDITIONS REMAIN SOLID
• POWELL: SURVEYS POINT TO HEIGHTENED ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
• FED'S POWELL: DOT PLOT SHOWS LOWER 2025 GDP PROJECTION THAN IN DECEMBER
• FED'S POWELL: OVERALL, LABOR MARKET BROADLY IN BALANCE
• POWELL: FED WELL POSITIONED TO WAIT FOR GREATER CLARITY
• POWELL: FED DOESN'T NEED TO BE IN HURRY TO ADJUST POLICY STANCE
• FED CHAIR POWELL: RECESSION ODDS HAVE MOVED UP BUT ARE NOT HIGH
• FED CHAIR POWELL: DON'T SEE MUCH INCREASE IN LONG-TERM EXPECTED INFLATION
• FED'S POWELL: BASE CASE IS THAT INFLATION WILL BE TRANSITORY
• POWELL: WILL DEPEND ON INFLATION EXPECTATIONS STAYING ANCHORED
• FED'S POWELL: WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS INFLATION IMPACT OF TARIFFS
• POWELL: FED STAFF FORECASTS ASSUME FULL TARIFF RETALIATION
Market initial reaction – U.S. market rally around 1%, Gold around $3050. Bitcoin back above $85000. U.S. Tech stocks rebound after dovish comment by Fed chair Jerome Powell.
This event can been seen as positive & improvement in sentiment. Now Reciprocal tariff to be levied from 2-Apr-25 will be next big news to impact India market.
Risk-Reward ratio in favor for - Bullish view / Long position / Time to accumulate
• FED INTEREST RATE DECISION 4.50%; EST. 4.50%; PREV. 4.50%
• FED INTEREST RATE FUTURES PRICE IN 56 BPS IN CUTS THIS YEAR AFTER FED HOLDS RATES STEADY, UNCHANGED FROM BEFORE STATEMENT RELEASE
• FED CUTS 2025 GDP GROWTH PROJECTION TO 1.7% FROM 2.1% IN DECEMBER
• FED RAISES 2025 UNEMPLOYMENT FORECAST TO 4.4% FROM 4.3% IN DECEMBER
• FED RAISES 2025 PCE INFLATION FORECAST TO 2.7% FROM 2.5% IN DECEMBER
• FED RAISES 2025 CORE PCE INFLATION FORECAST TO 2.8% FROM 2.5% IN DECEMBER
• U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TUMBLES AFTER FED DOT PLOT STILL SHOWS TWO RATE CUTS THIS YEAR
• FED'S POWELL: ECONOMY IS STRONG OVERALL
• POWELL: IN THE LABOR MARKET, CONDITIONS REMAIN SOLID
• POWELL: SURVEYS POINT TO HEIGHTENED ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
• FED'S POWELL: DOT PLOT SHOWS LOWER 2025 GDP PROJECTION THAN IN DECEMBER
• FED'S POWELL: OVERALL, LABOR MARKET BROADLY IN BALANCE
• POWELL: FED WELL POSITIONED TO WAIT FOR GREATER CLARITY
• POWELL: FED DOESN'T NEED TO BE IN HURRY TO ADJUST POLICY STANCE
• FED CHAIR POWELL: RECESSION ODDS HAVE MOVED UP BUT ARE NOT HIGH
• FED CHAIR POWELL: DON'T SEE MUCH INCREASE IN LONG-TERM EXPECTED INFLATION
• FED'S POWELL: BASE CASE IS THAT INFLATION WILL BE TRANSITORY
• POWELL: WILL DEPEND ON INFLATION EXPECTATIONS STAYING ANCHORED
• FED'S POWELL: WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS INFLATION IMPACT OF TARIFFS
• POWELL: FED STAFF FORECASTS ASSUME FULL TARIFF RETALIATION
Market initial reaction – U.S. market rally around 1%, Gold around $3050. Bitcoin back above $85000. U.S. Tech stocks rebound after dovish comment by Fed chair Jerome Powell.
This event can been seen as positive & improvement in sentiment. Now Reciprocal tariff to be levied from 2-Apr-25 will be next big news to impact India market.
Risk-Reward ratio in favor for - Bullish view / Long position / Time to accumulate
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Trade Setup for 27-Mar-25 – F&O expiry today & Trump announced auto tariffs
• Indian market consolidated on Wednesday, ahead of F&O expiry today. This correction / consolidation was much needed pause in momentum seen from 17-Mar-25 to 24-Mar-25. Tuesday & Wednesday can be seen as consolidation phase.
• U.S. market has mix session as President Trump announce tariff of 25% on foreign made cars and light trucks effective from 2-Apr-25. NASDAQ was down by 2.04% on doubts of AI demand.
• Trump’s Auto tariff could have limited impact on Indian market cars manufacturers, but it could impact negatively to auto ancillary companies who are supply to countries / companies impacted by U.S. auto tariffs.
• F&O expiry today & Trump ‘s tariff details will be important factors for today & tomorrow ahead of long weekend as 31-Mar-25 is trading holiday.
Technical View & F&O Updates
• FII in F&O continues to cover short – net covered short by 6871 contracts in index futures. FII unwind 1846 long & covered short by 8717 contracts in index futures. Net long: short remains at 33.58%:66.42%.
• Nifty RSI @ 64.84 & RSI average @ 60.07. Nifty took support at 23412 and will continue to act as support level for today, fresh downside after 23412 is broken. Nifty @ 23700 could act as resistance level.
• Banknifty RSI @ 67.77 & RSI average @ 62.63. Banknifty corrected in 2nd half yesterday has narrowed gap between RSI & RSI average is healthy sign. Banknifty @ 50866 could act as support level & Banknifty @ 51579 as resistance level.
Technical setup indicates further consolidation today and F&O expiry Call / Put built will guide today’s move. Nifty expected to close in 23500 – 23600 range and Banknifty around 51000 – 51500 – as expected build on this strike price during the day.
Market View & Strategy
• Today will be last trading day for current financial year as Settlement cycle is T+1 and trade initiated on 28-Mar-25 will be settled on 2-Apr-25 as 1-Apr-25 will be clearing holiday due to annual bank closing.
• F&O expiry today, Trump ‘s tariff details over next 1 – 4 days, U.S. GDP q/q data and market going into fresh series are key factors in next 1 – 2 days.
Our strategy for medium term investment / portfolio investment is use any correction / consolidation to add long position as market is in uptrend. Nifty @ 22738 & Banknifty @ 49538 to act as key support level for long and review needed only if these levels are broken.
GIFT Nifty @ 23517 indicates flat open with cuts of around 5 - 10 points.
• Indian market consolidated on Wednesday, ahead of F&O expiry today. This correction / consolidation was much needed pause in momentum seen from 17-Mar-25 to 24-Mar-25. Tuesday & Wednesday can be seen as consolidation phase.
• U.S. market has mix session as President Trump announce tariff of 25% on foreign made cars and light trucks effective from 2-Apr-25. NASDAQ was down by 2.04% on doubts of AI demand.
• Trump’s Auto tariff could have limited impact on Indian market cars manufacturers, but it could impact negatively to auto ancillary companies who are supply to countries / companies impacted by U.S. auto tariffs.
• F&O expiry today & Trump ‘s tariff details will be important factors for today & tomorrow ahead of long weekend as 31-Mar-25 is trading holiday.
Technical View & F&O Updates
• FII in F&O continues to cover short – net covered short by 6871 contracts in index futures. FII unwind 1846 long & covered short by 8717 contracts in index futures. Net long: short remains at 33.58%:66.42%.
• Nifty RSI @ 64.84 & RSI average @ 60.07. Nifty took support at 23412 and will continue to act as support level for today, fresh downside after 23412 is broken. Nifty @ 23700 could act as resistance level.
• Banknifty RSI @ 67.77 & RSI average @ 62.63. Banknifty corrected in 2nd half yesterday has narrowed gap between RSI & RSI average is healthy sign. Banknifty @ 50866 could act as support level & Banknifty @ 51579 as resistance level.
Technical setup indicates further consolidation today and F&O expiry Call / Put built will guide today’s move. Nifty expected to close in 23500 – 23600 range and Banknifty around 51000 – 51500 – as expected build on this strike price during the day.
Market View & Strategy
• Today will be last trading day for current financial year as Settlement cycle is T+1 and trade initiated on 28-Mar-25 will be settled on 2-Apr-25 as 1-Apr-25 will be clearing holiday due to annual bank closing.
• F&O expiry today, Trump ‘s tariff details over next 1 – 4 days, U.S. GDP q/q data and market going into fresh series are key factors in next 1 – 2 days.
Our strategy for medium term investment / portfolio investment is use any correction / consolidation to add long position as market is in uptrend. Nifty @ 22738 & Banknifty @ 49538 to act as key support level for long and review needed only if these levels are broken.
GIFT Nifty @ 23517 indicates flat open with cuts of around 5 - 10 points.
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Our strategy for medium term investment / portfolio investment is use any correction / consolidation to add long position as market is in uptrend. Nifty @ 22738 & Banknifty @ 49538 to act as key support level for long and review needed only if these levels are broken.
Pinned message as on 27-Mar-25 - Begin of Day
Pinned message as on 27-Mar-25 - Begin of Day
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EquiChain Wealth pinned «Our strategy for medium term investment / portfolio investment is use any correction / consolidation to add long position as market is in uptrend. Nifty @ 22738 & Banknifty @ 49538 to act as key support level for long and review needed only if these levels…»
Donald Trump says he's backing down on most nations' tariffs for 90 days amid market meltdown, but he's raising China tariffs to 125%.
EquiChain Wealth
3) Political stability after Delhi assembly election result on 8-Feb-25.
4) Earnings revival in next quarterly earning could provide much needed positive trigger.
5) March end selling pressure is expected to be over in next 5 - 8 trading days.
Market View & Strategy - for 2025
1) After recent fall in Indian market - we remain hopeful of recovery. Recovery should be supported by earning growth.
2) Large cap & Fundamentally good stocks will lead first round of rally. Mid-cap & Small-cap will join only after liquidity situation improves globally as Mid-cap & Small-cap has outperformed in last 3 - 4 years after COVID-19.
3) US Market has erased rally seen after post 5-Nov-24 - U.S. election result. Indian market could be beneficiary as positive earning growth could bring FII investment back.
4) New leader - Sector / Stocks are yet to be identified as we see this as pause and earning growth and change in fundamental will provide further clarity.
Which Sectors / Stocks - could lead next round of bull ma
Potential positive factors - Indian factor
1) Budget announced on 1-Feb-25 - Boost to consumption & continuity maintained.
2) RBI MPC cuts rate on 7-Feb-25 by 25-bps and latest inflation figures @ 3.61% released on 12-Mar-25 indicate another rate cut possible in April 2025 - RBI MPC meeting.
3) Political stability after Delhi assembly election result on 8-Feb-25.
4) Earnings revival in next quarterly earning could provide much needed positive trigger.
5) March end selling pressure is expected to be over in next 5 - 8 trading days.
View posted on 17-Mar-25
Domestic theme has played well in market & this earnings season could very well give us stocks / sectors which could lead next rally.
We will share details this weekend
1) Budget announced on 1-Feb-25 - Boost to consumption & continuity maintained.
2) RBI MPC cuts rate on 7-Feb-25 by 25-bps and latest inflation figures @ 3.61% released on 12-Mar-25 indicate another rate cut possible in April 2025 - RBI MPC meeting.
3) Political stability after Delhi assembly election result on 8-Feb-25.
4) Earnings revival in next quarterly earning could provide much needed positive trigger.
5) March end selling pressure is expected to be over in next 5 - 8 trading days.
View posted on 17-Mar-25
Domestic theme has played well in market & this earnings season could very well give us stocks / sectors which could lead next rally.
We will share details this weekend
Huge rally in Indian market - Banknifty near life-time high
What could be the reason?
1) Is market sensing some kind of agreement / negotiation on tariff war - between U.S. & China ?
or
2) Indian market - de-coupling (focusing on domestic factors)?
What could be the reason?
1) Is market sensing some kind of agreement / negotiation on tariff war - between U.S. & China ?
or
2) Indian market - de-coupling (focusing on domestic factors)?