FED RAISES RATES SIGNALS MORE TIGHTENING AHEAD

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, with the decision receiving unanimous support.
More importantly, the Fed's new projections signal that today's hike may not be the last:

• 16 of 18 officials project at least one additional rate hike in 2026.
• 12 officials see one more 25bp hike this year, while 4 see two more hikes.
• The Fed says inflation remains elevated.
• Economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with resilient spending and robust investment.
Reuters also describes the decision as a hike accompanied by signals of further increases in borrowing costs in coming months.

Current Fundamental Bias:
Gold — Bearish / Highly Volatile US INDICES — Bearish/ Volatile

USD — Bullish
Treasury Yields — Bullish Bias

Main reason:
Rate hike + additional hikes projected + elevated inflation + resilient economy = higher-for-longer interest-rate pressure.

Fed Chair Warsh's press conference remains critical and could change the immediate market reaction.

Long-term after running

Limit 4360 75
SL 4406
Blue H for closing above 4506, so we should not sell.
TP1 💡🕊 4210
TP 2 💡🕊4160
If there is a close below the FVG level, then we could see the market go further down.

Gold
SELL 4313 4316
SL 4320
TP 4300 4290 4280
Scalp call

2 TP done ✅😊

All TP done

Overnight, gold prices tumbled sharply because the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates and signaled more hikes to come，which strengthened the dollar and pressured non-yielding bullion. This marked the Fed's first rate hike since 2023.

📉 Key Reasons Behind the Overnight Drop

1. Fed's Rate Hike and Hawkish Stance
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 12-0 to raise the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that "inflation is too high, and has been for too long," and the updated "dot plot" showed 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more hike before year-end, signaling a sustained tightening cycle rather than a one-off move.

2. Stronger US Dollar
The dollar rose against the euro after the Fed's announcement, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers. The U.S. dollar index advanced to 100.25, while Treasury yields climbed across the curve (2-year yield to ~4.734%, 10-year yield back to 5.00%).

3. Gold's Lack of Yield Appeal
Gold pays no interest, so when rates rise, yield-bearing assets like bonds become more attractive, reducing demand for the metal.

4. Elevated Inflation Data
Core US inflation rose at a hotter-than-expected pace in August, while factors like Trump's global import tariffs, the energy shock from the US-Israeli war with Iran, and AI-driven capital spending kept prices high, forcing the Fed to act aggressively.

5. Oil Price Retreat and Technical Selling
Brent crude retreated after reports of additional Saudi crude via Oman eased Middle East supply concerns, while technical selling pressure mounted on non-yielding assets immediately after the Fed decision.

📊 Price Levels and Rebound

· Spot Gold: Fell 1.2% to $4,240.10 per ounce at 3:10 p.m. ET, after earlier climbing more than 1% to a session high of $4,365.57.
· US Gold Futures: December delivery settled 1.3% higher at $4,387.50, reflecting the earlier rally before the Fed's decision.
· Rebound: By Thursday morning in Asia, gold clawed back most of the selloff, trading around $4,305 per ounce, up 0.59% on the hour.

In short, the overnight selloff was driven by the Fed's rate hike and hawkish guidance, which boosted the dollar and Treasury yields, making non-yielding gold less attractive in the short term.

Long-term

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@FxRaees_trader786

Feb The golden zone was not broken even overnight. If the market breaks this level, the market can go in the direction of 3500, which is the lower low.

Remember that the channel is not broken.

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High break be careful

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