Here

Current view : Bearish Gold into Fomc
Rate hike fear

What would change my outlook?
Fed ignores all inflationary risk under Trump pressure


Hawkish Fed save Bond market at 5% not the inflation trade

Do you remember this Feb level

BTC drop level

FOMC Gold Trading Guide – September 16, 2026

The market is currently pricing around a 92–93% probability of a 25 bps Fed rate hike, potentially taking the target range to 3.75%–4.00%.

Bullish Gold scenario:
25 bps hike + dovish guidance → USD/Yields may fall → Gold may move higher.

Bearish Gold scenario:
25 bps hike + hawkish guidance → USD/Yields may rise → Gold may move lower.

Surprise Hold:
If the Fed holds instead of hiking, the initial reaction could be highly volatile and Gold could spike higher, but the press conference and guidance could reverse the move.

Most important: Don't trade the first FOMC candle blindly. Wait for the initial spike, candle close and confirmation before taking a directional trade.

FOMC Decision: ~11:00 PM Pakistan time
Press Conference: ~11:30 PM Pakistan time

Current reports also show Gold trading cautiously ahead of the decision, with the market focused heavily on the Fed's forward guidance rather than the already-expected hike itself.
@FxRaees_trader786

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. FOMC news can cause extreme volatility, sudden spikes, and reversals in Gold/XAUUSD. No market direction or profit is guaranteed. Always wait for proper confirmation, use appropriate risk management and stop-loss, and trade at your own risk.

LATEST| NEWS RESULTS

•USD| Fed Interest Rate Decision

•Previously: 3.75%
•Forecast: 4.00%

•Current: 4.00%

•Result: as expected

Gold idea 💡

FED RAISES RATES SIGNALS MORE TIGHTENING AHEAD

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, with the decision receiving unanimous support.
More importantly, the Fed's new projections signal that today's hike may not be the last:

• 16 of 18 officials project at least one additional rate hike in 2026.
• 12 officials see one more 25bp hike this year, while 4 see two more hikes.
• The Fed says inflation remains elevated.
• Economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with resilient spending and robust investment.
Reuters also describes the decision as a hike accompanied by signals of further increases in borrowing costs in coming months.

Current Fundamental Bias:
Gold — Bearish / Highly Volatile US INDICES — Bearish/ Volatile

USD — Bullish
Treasury Yields — Bullish Bias

Main reason:
Rate hike + additional hikes projected + elevated inflation + resilient economy = higher-for-longer interest-rate pressure.

Fed Chair Warsh's press conference remains critical and could change the immediate market reaction.

Long-term after running

Limit 4360 75
SL 4406
Blue H for closing above 4506, so we should not sell.
TP1 💡🕊 4210
TP 2 💡🕊4160
If there is a close below the FVG level, then we could see the market go further down.

Gold
SELL 4313 4316
SL 4320
TP 4300 4290 4280
Scalp call

2 TP done ✅😊

All TP done