DUVAL COUNTY, FL

Voter Registration Trend compared to Final margins, 2000-2020

Party registration to results normalized substantially starting in 2008.

Dems have always held a voter registration lead in Duval, and it is at its lowest point this century, just D+12,043 (D+1.9%).

Trump has played 26,867 and 20,810 to the right of this number in his two races, an average of 23,839 right of the registration index. It got him the county narrowly in 2016, and it was flipped in 2020 in the fortified election.

The numbers bear out that Trump is likely to flip Duval County back. DeSantis won it 55-44% in 2022.

This model has Trump by 11,796, or about 2.4%, in this race.

Why should you care about this county in a solid Republican state?

Perhaps because it has a near perfect mirror swing to a critical battleground state in each of the last four elections, with a nearly 1:1 correlation.

More to follow.

This is probably my most MacGyver analytics job of all time. I struck gold this morning and identified a perfect correlation to Georgia in Duval County, Florida, which trends perfectly with the entire state and has since 2004.

This makes it possible for me to make a fact and numbers based forecast as to where the momentum lies in Georgia. This is worth your time is you're an analytics nerd, and also very welcome good news for a critical state.

Thank you for reading and supporting my work!

https://skeshel.substack.com/p/georgia-trump-v-harris-voter-registration

In 2008, Democrats in PA had 1,236,467 more registered than Republicans.

Obama won the biggest landslide there since LBJ in 1964.

Today, registrations have swung a net of 910,982 toward the GOP.

Dems have a dwindling advantage of 325,485 right now. Trump ran 605,293 to the right of the Dem advantage in 2020 in a fortified election, and 960,566 right of it in 2016.

Pucker up and take your meds, Dems. Math is fun.

More fun with math, Michigan has averaged 53k to the left of PA in both of Trump’s previous races.

2 points in PA is roughly a margin of 140k. 4 points would be 280k.

WI ran right of both of them in 2016 and 2020 by percentage margin of victory.

COLORADO

Voter Registration by Party - Change since 2020

Perhaps the most useless application for all states that register voters by party, because:

*State has a just a 0.2% shift Democrat since 2020. Counties are very evenly split in direction since four years ago.

*Denver and Adams less Democrat than in 2020. The rest of Denver, more.

*Democrats well on way to flipping Douglas (in votes, not registration) by 2028, El Paso by 2032 - two of the last GOP strongholds remaining in CO.

*Much of Hispanic southern and SW CO - more red.

*Most of white liberal mountain western CO - more blue - and tracks with the few similar demographic groups looking hard for Trump.

*Many GOP strongholds R+20 or more are less red, but this is a function of Automatic Voter Registration having taken root for more than four years, flooding rolls with "nonpartisans" and diluting large advantages for either party.

Dems do not have a large advantage here but independents are much further left than in nearly every other state.

NORTH CAROLINA

This morning's update reveals Republicans outregistered Democrats last week 11,338 to 5,436, or a rate more than 2 to 1.

That cut another 5,902 off the Dem voter registration advantage.

NC Today = D+1.48%, +114,712

IN 2020 = D+5.31%, +391,414

Since 2020:
Rep = +77,771
Dem= -198,931

Trump has averaged 642,729 to the right of the Dem voter registration advantage in two races in NC, including 465,897 in the fortified race.

Guess the disaster relief effort really sank in.

OREGON

Voter Registration by Party, Change since 2020

*State has moved from D+9.9% to D+9.0%

*30 of 36 counties shift Republican since 2020

*Automatic Voter Registration, found to be corrupt in Oregon, has resulted in some R counties inching left as a means of diluting the voter rolls with more "nonpartisan" registrations

*Three key Portland suburban counties shift Dem - Clackamas, Washington, Yamhill

*Deschutes (Bend) being Colorado-ized

*Republican shifts symbolic of working class shift continuing - Trump won Columbia OR and Grays Harbor WA in 2016/20 for first GOP presidential wins there since 1928. They correlate to working class movement in Rust Belt.

Should you vote early? That debate is all the rage right now, and everyone is pushing it. We have been talking best practices for almost four years now.

It isn't my place to tell you how to exercise your rights within the boundaries of the law, not anymore than it is yours to tell me how I should be casting a ballot.

This piece sees beyond the fear and challenges you to be at peace with what it is you are planning to do, and to stop ceding ground to those who wish to infringe on your liberties.

Stop fidgeting and changing your path everytime someone says to be afraid of government, or this will continue forever.

Open to all.

https://skeshel.substack.com/p/should-you-vote-early-ask-the-man

On the polling and everyone throwing Harris under the bus:

If the polling were deadlocked as they say, and the swing states that will decide the electoral vote count are within the margin of error, then no one would be throwing Harris under the bus and writing political obituaries here in mid October. Doing so would discourage the voters she needs to break the deadlock and have a chance to win a 50/50 race, as we are led to believe is unfolding.

But the political obituaries are being written and locker room discord is being leaked out into the public.

The question that should be being asked, since all the poor sportsmanship pieces are flying around, is just how far behind in the polling and the now available early vote/mail request and returns count is she?

This is what a tabulator "sees" when it is looking at a ballot image - Part 1

A tabulator is solely designed to count votes on ballot images.

It is supposed to do this quickly and accurately.

Nothing more. Nothing less.

If it is looking for marks anywhere other than in the ovals it is not doing the job it was solely designed to do. (Not to mention that analyzing the whole ballot image would slow the analysis down considerably).


KN

This is what a tabulator "sees" when it is looking at a ballot image - Part 2

Vote target locations (i.e. ovals) are defined in the Ballot Definition File (BDF)

Vote target locations are associated with a candidate (or choice) in the tabulator's BDF. The EMS has it's own master BDF for each ballot layout.

The EMS only extracts the positive vote mark location from the tabulator results and then independently associates the location with a candidate (or choice) using it's own BDF definition for the predefined layout.

⚠️ The results from the tabulator and the EMS can be different if they use different BDFs. Dominion purposely does not double check the BDF versions are the same before tallying the results. (Even though this check would require one or two lines of code to implement).

(Manipulating BDFs to flip votes is simple to do and is very hard to identify.)

KN

This is what a tabulator "sees" when it is looking at a ballot image - Part 3

QUIZ: If the tabulator only "sees" the timing marks, the layout bar code (bottom-left corner) and the vote targets (i.e. ovals)... how does it know which candidate (or choice) a vote target is associated with?

(i.e. It literally does not see or read the candidate names (or choices) next to each oval.)

———

Everyone needs to be able to answer this and understand how results are stored on the tabulator and how they are processed on the EMS.

KN

How are these ballots generated?

A voter ID# within the internet-connected voter-roll database is temporarily inflated to generate a fake ballot which is sent out.

Same process can be done on an industrial scale behind closed doors by the hundreds of thousands guided by corrupt NGOs.

Rolls are then purged in microseconds to cover bad actors’ tracks.

Who is behind this?

The Department of Homeland Security via their unregulated and unaccountable shadow agencies, the Center for Internet Security and the Atlantic Council.

You aren’t up against democrats. You are up against your own government.

Nothing significant has changed and the states continue to collude with the corrupt federal government to coverup the election fraud, covid genocide and border invasions.

All this with the backdrop of the states refusing to protect citizens as they were intimidates and sometimes imprisoned by federal agencies for exercising their Constitutionally protected 1st Amendment rights.

IOWA

Change in Voter Registration by Party since 2020

All 99 counties shift Republican - Iowa was R+1% in 2020 and now R+10.4% pending final voter registration update

*Only 6 counties remain with a Democrat advantage - was 17 in 2020

*Key region of IA overlapping with Wisconsin trends heavy Republican, such as Dubuque from D+11.2% to D+2.7%

*Republican lead (active) is +166,858 - Trump has run an average of 116,125 RIGHT of the advantage in two runs

Guess which state has never been more than 9.8% in results away from IA since 1960 in any direction?

An interesting note on the shifts in IA party registration:

The roll has been purged since 2020 by well over 400k.

There are fewer Rs and WAY fewer Ds statewide, though Rs exceed 2020 totals in a number of counties.

Over 200k fewer nonaffiliated voters.

And ALL 99 counties are on a GOP shift. Why is it that voter roll purges always work against Democrats?

Was IA another state Democrats locked down successfully with bloated voter rolls until the shift became too hard for them to contain, and its GOP government got wise to the voter roll bloat and purged them?

If all lovers of freedom in the history of the world recognize that nearly all who seek power look to achieve it by any means necessary and retain it by the same, then how in the hell did we wind up putting government in charge of running elections?

NEW

ARIZONA BATTLEGROUND STATE VOTER SUPPORT GUIDE

Made in response to the endless list of issues in the last two elections.

Please note, before you start whining, that this is valid for voters of any party coming out for any candidate and subject to any form of disenfranchisement conducted by workers or supporters of any party or candidate.

Fair is fair.

NEW

PENNSYLVANIA BATTLEGROUND STATE VOTER SUPPORT GUIDE

Made in response to the endless list of issues in the last two elections.

Please note, before you start whining, that this is valid for voters of any party coming out for any candidate and subject to any form of disenfranchisement conducted by workers or supporters of any party or candidate.

Fair is fair.

More triangulation, this time using overlapping demographics and available voter registration data in Iowa to predict Wisconsin margin.

Thank you for reading this fact based, history sourced take on complex issues the media like to misrepresent:

https://skeshel.substack.com/p/wisconsin-trump-v-harris-voter-registration

NEW

NEVADA BATTLEGROUND STATE VOTER SUPPORT GUIDE

Made in response to the endless list of issues in the last two elections.

Please note, before you start whining, that this is valid for voters of any party coming out for any candidate and subject to any form of disenfranchisement conducted by workers or supporters of any party or candidate.

Fair is fair.