Forwarded from PolyBeats（EN）
Takaichi Dissolves Lower House for Snap Election; Voter Turnout Market Goes Live
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "2026 Japanese General Election Voter Turnout" launched today.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, exercising her authority to dissolve the House of Representatives at any time, dissolved the lower house on January 23—the opening day of the Diet session—without facing representative questioning. Yesterday, she announced the general election will take place on February 8, declaring that she will resign if her ruling coalition fails to secure a majority of the votes.
Although Takaichi is currently Prime Minister, her ruling coalition holds only a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives and is in the minority in the House of Councillors (Upper House). She requires a landslide victory to weaken the opposition's leverage in the Upper House.
A right-wing hawk frequently dubbed the "Asian female Trump," Takaichi is known for her radical policies and a style characterized by intense national pride. This move is widely viewed as a high-stakes political gamble aimed at consolidating power while her approval ratings remain relatively high.
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "2026 Japanese General Election Voter Turnout" launched today.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, exercising her authority to dissolve the House of Representatives at any time, dissolved the lower house on January 23—the opening day of the Diet session—without facing representative questioning. Yesterday, she announced the general election will take place on February 8, declaring that she will resign if her ruling coalition fails to secure a majority of the votes.
Although Takaichi is currently Prime Minister, her ruling coalition holds only a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives and is in the minority in the House of Councillors (Upper House). She requires a landslide victory to weaken the opposition's leverage in the Upper House.
A right-wing hawk frequently dubbed the "Asian female Trump," Takaichi is known for her radical policies and a style characterized by intense national pride. This move is widely viewed as a high-stakes political gamble aimed at consolidating power while her approval ratings remain relatively high.
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Forwarded from EdgeTestChannel
New Address Bets $39.5k on US Strike on Iran by End of Feb or March
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $39.5k over the past day that the US will strike Iran before the end of February or March. The position includes $26.4k bet on a strike before March 31 (average entry 55¢, current price 56¢) and $13.1k bet on a strike before February 28 (average entry 46¢, current price 45¢).
The Guardian reports that the US has announced multi-day aerial military exercises in the Middle East led by US Central Command (CENTCOM), confirming the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group in the region. The drills involve multiple aircraft, including F-15Es and British Typhoon fighters, and are viewed as a demonstration of rapid deployment and air combat capabilities. Although officially labeled as routine, the exercises coincide with escalating US-Iran tensions and are interpreted as a preparatory posture for potential military action.
Account: 0xe13dabe73fbda02a0c7199e2f4a096aa856244...
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $39.5k over the past day that the US will strike Iran before the end of February or March. The position includes $26.4k bet on a strike before March 31 (average entry 55¢, current price 56¢) and $13.1k bet on a strike before February 28 (average entry 46¢, current price 45¢).
The Guardian reports that the US has announced multi-day aerial military exercises in the Middle East led by US Central Command (CENTCOM), confirming the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group in the region. The drills involve multiple aircraft, including F-15Es and British Typhoon fighters, and are viewed as a demonstration of rapid deployment and air combat capabilities. Although officially labeled as routine, the exercises coincide with escalating US-Iran tensions and are interpreted as a preparatory posture for potential military action.
Account: 0xe13dabe73fbda02a0c7199e2f4a096aa856244...
Two New Addresses Bet $8.4k on US or Israel Striking Iran Before Jan 31
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new addresses wagered a total of $8.4k over the past day that either the US or Israel will strike Iran before January 31. Specifically, a $5k position targets a US strike before Jan 31 (average entry 11¢, current price 10¢), while a $3.4k position targets an Israeli strike before Jan 31 (average entry 8¢, current price 8¢).
On January 29, Reuters reported that President Donald Trump is considering targeted military strikes against key Iranian figures and security institutions. The potential move aims to weaken the leadership structure to reignite protests and push for regime change, though no final decision has been reached. The report indicates that the US is continuing to increase military readiness in the Middle East, with Arab and Western diplomats warning that airstrikes could trigger a wider conflict.
Accounts: 0x311f215ca8405c1520681223da468feb9e8a331d 0xf0fe85263850116ba3ac3a88fffa651...
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new addresses wagered a total of $8.4k over the past day that either the US or Israel will strike Iran before January 31. Specifically, a $5k position targets a US strike before Jan 31 (average entry 11¢, current price 10¢), while a $3.4k position targets an Israeli strike before Jan 31 (average entry 8¢, current price 8¢).
On January 29, Reuters reported that President Donald Trump is considering targeted military strikes against key Iranian figures and security institutions. The potential move aims to weaken the leadership structure to reignite protests and push for regime change, though no final decision has been reached. The report indicates that the US is continuing to increase military readiness in the Middle East, with Arab and Western diplomats warning that airstrikes could trigger a wider conflict.
Accounts: 0x311f215ca8405c1520681223da468feb9e8a331d 0xf0fe85263850116ba3ac3a88fffa651...
Polymarket Sets 75% Probability for Gold at $5,800/oz in Feb; Silver to Hit $130/oz at 78%
On the prediction market Polymarket, the total trading volume for February gold price forecasts stands at $190k. The implied probability of gold reaching $5,500/oz is 94%, with a 74% chance of hitting $5,800 and a 54% chance of touching $6,000. For the silver market, trading volume is around $200k, with probabilities of reaching $120, $130, and $140 per ounce standing at 85%, 78%, and 51%, respectively.
Driven by multiple safe-haven factors, gold and silver prices have continued to surge. Gold has repeatedly broken all-time highs intraday, surpassing $5,200/oz, while silver has broken through the $100 mark and continues to climb. Professional institutions suggest that while short-term upward momentum remains, investors should be wary of volatility risks due to high trading activity; meanwhile, some analysts warn that silver specifically faces significant pressure for a potential pullback.
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the total trading volume for February gold price forecasts stands at $190k. The implied probability of gold reaching $5,500/oz is 94%, with a 74% chance of hitting $5,800 and a 54% chance of touching $6,000. For the silver market, trading volume is around $200k, with probabilities of reaching $120, $130, and $140 per ounce standing at 85%, 78%, and 51%, respectively.
Driven by multiple safe-haven factors, gold and silver prices have continued to surge. Gold has repeatedly broken all-time highs intraday, surpassing $5,200/oz, while silver has broken through the $100 mark and continues to climb. Professional institutions suggest that while short-term upward momentum remains, investors should be wary of volatility risks due to high trading activity; meanwhile, some analysts warn that silver specifically faces significant pressure for a potential pullback.
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
'I-do-stupid-bets' Increases Position; 4 New Addresses Bet $29k Against Saturday US Gov Shutdown
On the prediction market Polymarket, four new addresses wagered a total of $29.1k over the past day that the US government will not shut down this Saturday. These positions were entered at an average price of 23–26¢, with the current price standing at 31¢. Additionally, the account "I-do-stupid-bets," reported yesterday, continued to add to its position, bringing its total exposure to $115.5k.
Senate Democratic Leader Schumer stated that he will not support the Department of Homeland Security funding bill unless it includes regulatory reforms for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), specifically requiring body cameras, the display of identification, and stricter search warrant protocols. This stance has heightened concerns that a partial government shutdown could occur after the weekend budget deadline.
Accounts: 0x79bf43cbd005a51e25bafa4abe3f51a3c8ba96a8 0xeafc018ccbca46db203ba57c3e798ce0e84fe4c4 0x54...
On the prediction market Polymarket, four new addresses wagered a total of $29.1k over the past day that the US government will not shut down this Saturday. These positions were entered at an average price of 23–26¢, with the current price standing at 31¢. Additionally, the account "I-do-stupid-bets," reported yesterday, continued to add to its position, bringing its total exposure to $115.5k.
Senate Democratic Leader Schumer stated that he will not support the Department of Homeland Security funding bill unless it includes regulatory reforms for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), specifically requiring body cameras, the display of identification, and stricter search warrant protocols. This stance has heightened concerns that a partial government shutdown could occur after the weekend budget deadline.
Accounts: 0x79bf43cbd005a51e25bafa4abe3f51a3c8ba96a8 0xeafc018ccbca46db203ba57c3e798ce0e84fe4c4 0x54...
"10u Warrior" Becomes Top Holder; Bets $105.5k on Billionaire Wealth Tax Passing
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account previously noted for making only four small wagers has accumulated a total position of $105.5k betting that the proposal for a one-time billionaire wealth tax in the 2026 California election will pass. The position was built at an average price of 48¢, with the current market price at 38¢. This account is now the top holder in the market, holding a position ten times larger than the second-largest holder.
California is advancing a referendum proposal titled the "2026 Billionaire Tax Act," intended for the November 2026 ballot. It seeks voter approval for a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with a net worth exceeding $1 billion, aiming to raise tens to hundreds of billions of dollars for state social services. While the proposal has garnered support from unions and other groups, it faces public opposition from the California Governor and tech leaders. Additionally, there are r...
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account previously noted for making only four small wagers has accumulated a total position of $105.5k betting that the proposal for a one-time billionaire wealth tax in the 2026 California election will pass. The position was built at an average price of 48¢, with the current market price at 38¢. This account is now the top holder in the market, holding a position ten times larger than the second-largest holder.
California is advancing a referendum proposal titled the "2026 Billionaire Tax Act," intended for the November 2026 ballot. It seeks voter approval for a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with a net worth exceeding $1 billion, aiming to raise tens to hundreds of billions of dollars for state social services. While the proposal has garnered support from unions and other groups, it faces public opposition from the California Governor and tech leaders. Additionally, there are r...
'better1000' Increases Bets on US Strike on Iran; Total Position Hits $70k
On the prediction market Polymarket, the "better1000" account—previously reported yesterday—has continued to increase its wager over the past day that the US will strike Iran across multiple deadlines. The account's total exposure has now reached $70k.
US-Iran tensions have continued to escalate over the past few days. President Trump publicly warned that "time is running out" and that the US may take "severer military action" if Iran does not reach an agreement on the nuclear issue. Simultaneously, the deployment of a US carrier strike group and ongoing multi-day aerial exercises in the Middle East have bolstered US rapid strike capabilities. In response, Iran stated its military is prepared to launch a forceful counterattack against any aggression while expressing concern over regional stability. These developments indicate that the high-pressure standoff is likely to persist in the short term, with an elevated risk of military friction.
Account: 0xe13dabe73fbda02a0c7199e2f4a096aa8562441b
Total Position: $70k
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the "better1000" account—previously reported yesterday—has continued to increase its wager over the past day that the US will strike Iran across multiple deadlines. The account's total exposure has now reached $70k.
US-Iran tensions have continued to escalate over the past few days. President Trump publicly warned that "time is running out" and that the US may take "severer military action" if Iran does not reach an agreement on the nuclear issue. Simultaneously, the deployment of a US carrier strike group and ongoing multi-day aerial exercises in the Middle East have bolstered US rapid strike capabilities. In response, Iran stated its military is prepared to launch a forceful counterattack against any aggression while expressing concern over regional stability. These developments indicate that the high-pressure standoff is likely to persist in the short term, with an elevated risk of military friction.
Account: 0xe13dabe73fbda02a0c7199e2f4a096aa8562441b
Total Position: $70k
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Account Bets $3.6k on US Strike on Iran Within One Week; Linked to Crypto Market Maker Managing Over $1B
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $3.6k half an hour ago that the US will strike Iran. The current probability of a strike within the next 3 days stands at 10%.
On-chain fund tracing reveals the account is linked to QCP Capital, an institution often regarded as a representative of "Wall Street" in the crypto space. Founded in 2017, the firm is one of the largest institutional-grade liquidity providers and market makers in the cryptocurrency sector, managing over $1 billion in assets and serving as a key market-making partner for multiple major exchanges.
Fund Tracing: QCP -> 0x1443 -> 0x9577 -> 0x24d9 -> Relay -> Polymarket
Recently, multiple anonymous US sources revealed that following the Iranian authorities' crackdown on nationwide protests, President Trump is weighing various military options. These range from targeted strikes against security force co...
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $3.6k half an hour ago that the US will strike Iran. The current probability of a strike within the next 3 days stands at 10%.
On-chain fund tracing reveals the account is linked to QCP Capital, an institution often regarded as a representative of "Wall Street" in the crypto space. Founded in 2017, the firm is one of the largest institutional-grade liquidity providers and market makers in the cryptocurrency sector, managing over $1 billion in assets and serving as a key market-making partner for multiple major exchanges.
Fund Tracing: QCP -> 0x1443 -> 0x9577 -> 0x24d9 -> Relay -> Polymarket
Recently, multiple anonymous US sources revealed that following the Iranian authorities' crackdown on nationwide protests, President Trump is weighing various military options. These range from targeted strikes against security force co...
'I-do-stupid-bets' Adds $36k to No Gov Shutdown Bet; Two New Addresses Bet $7k
On the prediction market Polymarket, the previously reported account "I-do-stupid-bets" continued to increase its position over the past day, adding $36k to the wager that the US government will not shut down this Saturday. The account's total exposure has now reached $137.1k. Additionally, two new addresses opened positions totaling $7k on the same outcome.
The Financial Times reports that Trump and Senate Democrats have reached an agreement on a temporary spending deal. The agreement extends Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding through February 13, buying time for further negotiations. This temporary arrangement separates DHS funding from other major spending bills, marking a critical development to avoid a government shutdown this weekend.
Accounts: 0x79bf43cbd005a51e25bafa4abe3f51a3c8ba96a8 0xf329b0bdcfff6397ae689347323af06f71729ee4 0x836b2fba47bcc880c5b8d39050a8c599fd8c3c56
Total Position: $144.1k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the previously reported account "I-do-stupid-bets" continued to increase its position over the past day, adding $36k to the wager that the US government will not shut down this Saturday. The account's total exposure has now reached $137.1k. Additionally, two new addresses opened positions totaling $7k on the same outcome.
The Financial Times reports that Trump and Senate Democrats have reached an agreement on a temporary spending deal. The agreement extends Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding through February 13, buying time for further negotiations. This temporary arrangement separates DHS funding from other major spending bills, marking a critical development to avoid a government shutdown this weekend.
Accounts: 0x79bf43cbd005a51e25bafa4abe3f51a3c8ba96a8 0xf329b0bdcfff6397ae689347323af06f71729ee4 0x836b2fba47bcc880c5b8d39050a8c599fd8c3c56
Total Position: $144.1k
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New Address Bets $39.8k on Khamenei Ouster by Jan 31 or Feb 28
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last 12 hours, a new address wagered a total of $39.8k that Ayatollah Khamenei will step down before Jan 31 or Feb 28. This includes a $32.8k bet that he will step down before Feb 28 (average entry 20¢, current price 20¢) and a $7k bet that he will step down before Jan 31 (average entry 9¢, current price 2¢).
Reuters reported on the 29th that US President Trump is considering targeted military strikes on Iran, potentially aiming at military facilities or leadership involved in suppressing dissent. The goal is to reignite internal protests and increase pressure on the current regime. These discussions arise amidst the ongoing crackdown under Khamenei's rule, though no final decision or substantive action has been taken to date.
Account: 0x976d6c17577fd7de2ad10b02c6bcd1d3b3147de0
Position: $39.8k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last 12 hours, a new address wagered a total of $39.8k that Ayatollah Khamenei will step down before Jan 31 or Feb 28. This includes a $32.8k bet that he will step down before Feb 28 (average entry 20¢, current price 20¢) and a $7k bet that he will step down before Jan 31 (average entry 9¢, current price 2¢).
Reuters reported on the 29th that US President Trump is considering targeted military strikes on Iran, potentially aiming at military facilities or leadership involved in suppressing dissent. The goal is to reignite internal protests and increase pressure on the current regime. These discussions arise amidst the ongoing crackdown under Khamenei's rule, though no final decision or substantive action has been taken to date.
Account: 0x976d6c17577fd7de2ad10b02c6bcd1d3b3147de0
Position: $39.8k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Address Bets $10k on Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Before March 31
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last nine hours, a new address wagered $10k that Russia and Ukraine will agree to a ceasefire before March 31. The position was opened at an average price of 16¢, which remains the current market price.
Reuters reported on the 29th that the Kremlin announced Russia has invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Moscow for peace negotiations. This represents a significant diplomatic development, though no official response has yet been received from Ukraine. The report notes that this invitation follows trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi mediated by the US, despite persistent core disagreements regarding territorial control and the deployment of international peacekeeping forces.
Account: 0x605e773de4c6ee1d19d551c6d28719da9ecade5c
Position: $10k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last nine hours, a new address wagered $10k that Russia and Ukraine will agree to a ceasefire before March 31. The position was opened at an average price of 16¢, which remains the current market price.
Reuters reported on the 29th that the Kremlin announced Russia has invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Moscow for peace negotiations. This represents a significant diplomatic development, though no official response has yet been received from Ukraine. The report notes that this invitation follows trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi mediated by the US, despite persistent core disagreements regarding territorial control and the deployment of international peacekeeping forces.
Account: 0x605e773de4c6ee1d19d551c6d28719da9ecade5c
Position: $10k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Anon Account Increases Jan 31 Iran Strike Bet to $34.3k; New Bets on Feb Conflicts
On the prediction market Polymarket, the previously reported anonymous account—which had wagered $11k on a US strike—has continued to increase its position that the US will strike Iran before Jan 31. The account's total exposure has reached $34.3k, with an average entry of 13¢ and a current price of 14¢. Additionally, within the past three hours, two new addresses wagered a combined $8.6k that either Israel or the US will strike Iran before the end of February.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy has officially announced plans to conduct live-fire military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global energy choke point—on February 1–2, 2026, issuing navigation warnings to mariners. These drills are part of a joint air, land, and sea exercise involving live-fire operations and tactical maneuvers. Coming on the heels of expanded US military deployment in the Middle East, the announcement is widely interpreted as a "deterrent response" from Tehran.
Accounts: 0x6452018b718265464dcf6d391db99f56ba899874 0x6f3b2c56fabd12c413abdf832eb28e1174a25ea9 0xdc9aed01fd96c0ec0be6e0520fc98099cdc4924a
Total Position: $42.9k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the previously reported anonymous account—which had wagered $11k on a US strike—has continued to increase its position that the US will strike Iran before Jan 31. The account's total exposure has reached $34.3k, with an average entry of 13¢ and a current price of 14¢. Additionally, within the past three hours, two new addresses wagered a combined $8.6k that either Israel or the US will strike Iran before the end of February.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy has officially announced plans to conduct live-fire military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global energy choke point—on February 1–2, 2026, issuing navigation warnings to mariners. These drills are part of a joint air, land, and sea exercise involving live-fire operations and tactical maneuvers. Coming on the heels of expanded US military deployment in the Middle East, the announcement is widely interpreted as a "deterrent response" from Tehran.
Accounts: 0x6452018b718265464dcf6d391db99f56ba899874 0x6f3b2c56fabd12c413abdf832eb28e1174a25ea9 0xdc9aed01fd96c0ec0be6e0520fc98099cdc4924a
Total Position: $42.9k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Tesla & SpaceX Merger by June 30? Probability at 17%
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Tesla and SpaceX merger announced by June 30?" has emerged over the past day. The market resolves to "Yes" if Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a merger or acquisition resulting in a transfer of control by the end of June 2026, even if the deal is not yet completed. The current probability stands at 17%.
According to Reuters, Elon Musk's SpaceX is currently in merger talks with xAI, with plans to finalize the deal before an initial public offering.
Market analysts suggest that integrating SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI could create a massive technology conglomerate, potentially boosting IPO valuations and enhancing strategic synergy. Reports indicate that if such a merger is seriously pursued, it could consolidate SpaceX's Starlink and rocket operations with Tesla under a single corporate structure—a move viewed as a highly ambitious integration strategy for capital markets and long-term business layout.
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Tesla and SpaceX merger announced by June 30?" has emerged over the past day. The market resolves to "Yes" if Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a merger or acquisition resulting in a transfer of control by the end of June 2026, even if the deal is not yet completed. The current probability stands at 17%.
According to Reuters, Elon Musk's SpaceX is currently in merger talks with xAI, with plans to finalize the deal before an initial public offering.
Market analysts suggest that integrating SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI could create a massive technology conglomerate, potentially boosting IPO valuations and enhancing strategic synergy. Reports indicate that if such a merger is seriously pursued, it could consolidate SpaceX's Starlink and rocket operations with Tesla under a single corporate structure—a move viewed as a highly ambitious integration strategy for capital markets and long-term business layout.
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Trump Attempts to Split Key Province; Canada Recession Probability at 45%
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Canada enters recession this year?" currently stands at 45%.
According to the market rules, the event resolves as "Yes" if the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council declares a recession within the year, or if statistical data shows two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted, 2017 chained dollars) between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.
Trump previously threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Canada, triggering market panic and driving the probability above 60%. However, recent preliminary data for Q1 2026 indicates positive growth, and the tariff threat has partially subsided amidst exemption negotiations.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Joseph Carney publicly criticized US protectionism, tariff threats, and unilateralism at this month's Davos World Economic Forum, stating that the US has "turned its back on the post-WWII free trade order." Yesterday, the...
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Canada enters recession this year?" currently stands at 45%.
According to the market rules, the event resolves as "Yes" if the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council declares a recession within the year, or if statistical data shows two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted, 2017 chained dollars) between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.
Trump previously threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Canada, triggering market panic and driving the probability above 60%. However, recent preliminary data for Q1 2026 indicates positive growth, and the tariff threat has partially subsided amidst exemption negotiations.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Joseph Carney publicly criticized US protectionism, tariff threats, and unilateralism at this month's Davos World Economic Forum, stating that the US has "turned its back on the post-WWII free trade order." Yesterday, the...
Trump Attempts to Split Key Province; Canada Recession Probability at 45%
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Canada enters recession this year?" currently stands at 45%.
According to the market rules, the event resolves as "Yes" if the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council declares a recession within the year, or if statistical data shows two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted, 2017 chained dollars) between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.
Trump previously threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Canada, triggering market panic and driving the probability above 60%. However, recent preliminary data for Q1 2026 indicates positive growth, and the tariff threat has partially subsided amidst exemption negotiations.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Joseph Carney publicly criticized US protectionism, tariff threats, and unilateralism at this month's Davos World Economic Forum, stating that the US has "turned its back on the post-WWII free trade order." Yesterday, the...
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Canada enters recession this year?" currently stands at 45%.
According to the market rules, the event resolves as "Yes" if the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council declares a recession within the year, or if statistical data shows two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted, 2017 chained dollars) between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.
Trump previously threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Canada, triggering market panic and driving the probability above 60%. However, recent preliminary data for Q1 2026 indicates positive growth, and the tariff threat has partially subsided amidst exemption negotiations.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Joseph Carney publicly criticized US protectionism, tariff threats, and unilateralism at this month's Davos World Economic Forum, stating that the US has "turned its back on the post-WWII free trade order." Yesterday, the...
Forwarded from PolyEdge
🔥🔥🔥 Trump Confidant Witkoff to Meet Iran Officials; Allegedly Linked to $400k Insider Bet on Maduro
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that "Witkoff meets Iranian officials by Feb 28?" currently stands at 87%.
Steve Witkoff is a co-founder of WLFI (a project spearheaded by Trump’s son, Eric) and a prominent New York real estate developer. A major donor, he has shared a close friendship with Trump for nearly 40 years.
Previously, an insider account on Polymarket—which profited approximately $400k by placing heavy bets on Maduro’s capture shortly before the event—was allegedly linked to Witkoff.
Recently appointed as Trump's Special Envoy to the Middle East, Witkoff stated he intends to meet with Iranian officials soon to discuss "diplomatic solutions," including potential ceasefires, security guarantees, and sanctions relief. This move comes in response to escalating protests in Iran and Trump’s pledge to "quickly end the conflict."
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Trade | View on Polymarket
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that "Witkoff meets Iranian officials by Feb 28?" currently stands at 87%.
Steve Witkoff is a co-founder of WLFI (a project spearheaded by Trump’s son, Eric) and a prominent New York real estate developer. A major donor, he has shared a close friendship with Trump for nearly 40 years.
Previously, an insider account on Polymarket—which profited approximately $400k by placing heavy bets on Maduro’s capture shortly before the event—was allegedly linked to Witkoff.
Recently appointed as Trump's Special Envoy to the Middle East, Witkoff stated he intends to meet with Iranian officials soon to discuss "diplomatic solutions," including potential ceasefires, security guarantees, and sanctions relief. This move comes in response to escalating protests in Iran and Trump’s pledge to "quickly end the conflict."
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Trade | View on Polymarket