New Address Bets One Battle After Another to Win Best Picture at 98th Oscars
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $4.4k at an average price of 70¢ that One Battle After Another will win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards. The current probability for a "Yes" outcome stands at 69%.
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for March 15, 2026, following the nomination announcement on January 22. As a World War II epic, One Battle After Another secured 9 nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Cinematography. The film has garnered favor among voters for Director Christopher Nolan's signature visual impact and profound anti-war themes.
Account: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d
Position: $4.4k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $4.4k at an average price of 70¢ that One Battle After Another will win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards. The current probability for a "Yes" outcome stands at 69%.
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for March 15, 2026, following the nomination announcement on January 22. As a World War II epic, One Battle After Another secured 9 nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Cinematography. The film has garnered favor among voters for Director Christopher Nolan's signature visual impact and profound anti-war themes.
Account: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d
Position: $4.4k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Address Bets $11k on US Strike on Iran Before Jan 31
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address added $5.8k within the last hour to the wager that the US will strike Iran before January 31. The address now holds a total position of $11k on this outcome, with an average cost of 18¢. The current market price stands at 15¢.
Over the past two days, Iranian authorities unveiled a new mural in a Tehran square depicting a destroyed US aircraft carrier accompanied by the warning "You reap what you sow," serving as a direct caution against US military action. This display coincides with the deployment of a US carrier strike group to the Middle East. A senior Iranian official stated that any US military strike would be regarded as "total war," adding that the country's armed forces are on high alert in response to the movement of US troops into the region.
Account: 0x6452018b718265464dcf6d391db99f56ba899874
Position: $11k
------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address added $5.8k within the last hour to the wager that the US will strike Iran before January 31. The address now holds a total position of $11k on this outcome, with an average cost of 18¢. The current market price stands at 15¢.
Over the past two days, Iranian authorities unveiled a new mural in a Tehran square depicting a destroyed US aircraft carrier accompanied by the warning "You reap what you sow," serving as a direct caution against US military action. This display coincides with the deployment of a US carrier strike group to the Middle East. A senior Iranian official stated that any US military strike would be regarded as "total war," adding that the country's armed forces are on high alert in response to the movement of US troops into the region.
Account: 0x6452018b718265464dcf6d391db99f56ba899874
Position: $11k
------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Address Adds $1.5k to Khamenei Ouster Bet by Jan 31; Total Position $6.6k
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last four hours, a new address added $1.5k at 3¢ to the wager that Ayatollah Khamenei will step down before Jan 31. The address now holds a total position of $6.6k with an average cost of 8¢, while the current market price sits at just 1¢.
Recently, nationwide protests in Iran have faced a massive crackdown. Activists report at least 6,126 deaths and over 40,000 arrests, marking the most severe internal unrest in decades. The government has implemented an unprecedented, prolonged internet blackout and responded with force. Iranian authorities deny the high death toll, blaming the unrest on external forces, while regional Iranian proxy groups have issued strong statements, keeping tensions high but currently in a pre-escalation standoff.
Account: 0x06ef2c450fd28f7991b200c73e3eb5c6a2674859
Position: $6.6k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last four hours, a new address added $1.5k at 3¢ to the wager that Ayatollah Khamenei will step down before Jan 31. The address now holds a total position of $6.6k with an average cost of 8¢, while the current market price sits at just 1¢.
Recently, nationwide protests in Iran have faced a massive crackdown. Activists report at least 6,126 deaths and over 40,000 arrests, marking the most severe internal unrest in decades. The government has implemented an unprecedented, prolonged internet blackout and responded with force. Iranian authorities deny the high death toll, blaming the unrest on external forces, while regional Iranian proxy groups have issued strong statements, keeping tensions high but currently in a pre-escalation standoff.
Account: 0x06ef2c450fd28f7991b200c73e3eb5c6a2674859
Position: $6.6k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Two New Addresses Bet $17.5k Against Saturday US Gov Shutdown
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last eight hours, a new address wagered $14.1k that the US government will not shut down before this Saturday (Jan 31), entering at an average price of 25¢. Another new address bet $3.4k at an average price of 22¢. The current trading price for "No" is 21¢.
The US Congress remains deeply divided over the ~$64.4 billion Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget. Specifically, Senate Democrats have refused to back the current draft due to conflicts over immigration enforcement reform, increasing the likelihood of a partial shutdown before the January 30 deadline. With the deadline just days away, behind-the-scenes negotiations are ongoing to prevent a partial or full government shutdown.
Accounts: 0x276f765f8d99eb45a7f4126ac7ee331f541ed05e 0x5394e93e653e0e84af2e9219eeff64530aa4e47c
Position: $17.5k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last eight hours, a new address wagered $14.1k that the US government will not shut down before this Saturday (Jan 31), entering at an average price of 25¢. Another new address bet $3.4k at an average price of 22¢. The current trading price for "No" is 21¢.
The US Congress remains deeply divided over the ~$64.4 billion Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget. Specifically, Senate Democrats have refused to back the current draft due to conflicts over immigration enforcement reform, increasing the likelihood of a partial shutdown before the January 30 deadline. With the deadline just days away, behind-the-scenes negotiations are ongoing to prevent a partial or full government shutdown.
Accounts: 0x276f765f8d99eb45a7f4126ac7ee331f541ed05e 0x5394e93e653e0e84af2e9219eeff64530aa4e47c
Position: $17.5k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Account with 12-Win Streak on US-Iran Strikes Bets $24.6k on Attack Before March
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account created in January—which has executed 16 trades, 12 of which were bets on whether the US would strike Iran, boasting a 100% win rate—has wagered $24.6k that the US will strike Iran before February 28. The position was opened at 45¢, and the current probability stands at 44%.
A US Carrier Strike Group has entered the Middle East region. Trump stated that "large forces" are moving toward Iran, though he hopes they will not need to be used. He also claimed that Iran has guaranteed to stop killings and executions and has "contacted multiple times wanting to negotiate."
Account: 0x02d8495225a297157d25dbcf7ed9dd483bf80c91
Position: $24.6k
---------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account created in January—which has executed 16 trades, 12 of which were bets on whether the US would strike Iran, boasting a 100% win rate—has wagered $24.6k that the US will strike Iran before February 28. The position was opened at 45¢, and the current probability stands at 44%.
A US Carrier Strike Group has entered the Middle East region. Trump stated that "large forces" are moving toward Iran, though he hopes they will not need to be used. He also claimed that Iran has guaranteed to stop killings and executions and has "contacted multiple times wanting to negotiate."
Account: 0x02d8495225a297157d25dbcf7ed9dd483bf80c91
Position: $24.6k
---------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Opinion Airdrop Page Live; Points Campaign Ending; Market Bets on TGE Before April
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Opinion to launch governance token by Mar 31?" currently stands at a high 96%.
Currently, the Opinion Labs website has launched a "YOUR AIRDROP ALLOCATION" feature, allowing users to distribute their airdrop to a maximum of five wallets. The official X account recently posted a screenshot of this page with the caption "have you seen what's new?", a move interpreted by the community as a hint that the Token Generation Event (TGE) is imminent. The team also stated that the points campaign is entering its final stages this week, with the points system set to gradually close down.
-------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Opinion to launch governance token by Mar 31?" currently stands at a high 96%.
Currently, the Opinion Labs website has launched a "YOUR AIRDROP ALLOCATION" feature, allowing users to distribute their airdrop to a maximum of five wallets. The official X account recently posted a screenshot of this page with the caption "have you seen what's new?", a move interpreted by the community as a hint that the Token Generation Event (TGE) is imminent. The team also stated that the points campaign is entering its final stages this week, with the points system set to gradually close down.
-------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Fed Expected to Hold Rates (99%); 7 New Accounts Bet $100k on Surprise Change
On the prediction market Polymarket, seven new accounts created this month have wagered a total of $100,000 over the past two weeks that the Federal Reserve will change interest rates (either a hike or a cut) at this week's meeting. These positions currently show an unrealized loss of $63,000.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on January 30. With the current target range at 5.25–5.50%, market expectations for rates to remain unchanged are as high as 99%. January's non-farm payrolls were unexpectedly strong (adding over 200k jobs), and Core PCE inflation cooled to 2.8%. Chair Powell has emphasized data-dependent decision-making, and based on current economic data, the market anticipates no change this month.
However, given Trump's repeated public criticism of Powell and hints at potential intervention in Fed independence, some bettors speculate that Powell might unexpectedly cut rates as a "peace offering" to ...
On the prediction market Polymarket, seven new accounts created this month have wagered a total of $100,000 over the past two weeks that the Federal Reserve will change interest rates (either a hike or a cut) at this week's meeting. These positions currently show an unrealized loss of $63,000.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on January 30. With the current target range at 5.25–5.50%, market expectations for rates to remain unchanged are as high as 99%. January's non-farm payrolls were unexpectedly strong (adding over 200k jobs), and Core PCE inflation cooled to 2.8%. Chair Powell has emphasized data-dependent decision-making, and based on current economic data, the market anticipates no change this month.
However, given Trump's repeated public criticism of Powell and hints at potential intervention in Fed independence, some bettors speculate that Powell might unexpectedly cut rates as a "peace offering" to ...
2 Whales Bet on Long Shot: $10.7k on Treasury Sec for Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like W...
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like W...
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Notice: 24-Hour System Maintenance Our platform will be undergoing essential maintenance for 24 hours. During this period, all services will be unavailable until the update is complete. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation.
Notice: 24-Hour System Maintenance Our platform will be undergoing essential maintenance for 24 hours. During this period, all services will be unavailable until the update is complete. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation.
2 Whales Bet on Long Shot: $10.7k on Treasury Sec for Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like W...
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like W...
2 Whales Bet on Long Shot: $10.7k on Treasury Sec for Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like W...
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like W...
Forwarded from PolyBeats（EN）
2 Whales Bet on Long Shot: $10.7k on Treasury Sec for Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like Warsh or Rieder, he could potentially force a transfer or mandate a dual role for Bessent.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0xb66582886125a2a2ea966f1ea60ea60b6ecabf8f
Position: $10.7k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like Warsh or Rieder, he could potentially force a transfer or mandate a dual role for Bessent.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0xb66582886125a2a2ea966f1ea60ea60b6ecabf8f
Position: $10.7k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Forwarded from PolyBeats（EN）
2 Whales Bet on Long Shot: $10.7k on Treasury Sec for Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like Warsh or Rieder, he could potentially force a transfer or mandate a dual role for Bessent.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0xb66582886125a2a2ea966f1ea60ea60b6ecabf8f
Position: $10.7k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like Warsh or Rieder, he could potentially force a transfer or mandate a dual role for Bessent.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0xb66582886125a2a2ea966f1ea60ea60b6ecabf8f
Position: $10.7k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Forwarded from PolyBeats（EN）
2 Whales Bet on Long Shot: $10.7k on Treasury Sec for Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like Warsh or Rieder, he could potentially force a transfer or mandate a dual role for Bessent.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0xb66582886125a2a2ea966f1ea60ea60b6ecabf8f
Position: $10.7k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like Warsh or Rieder, he could potentially force a transfer or mandate a dual role for Bessent.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0xb66582886125a2a2ea966f1ea60ea60b6ecabf8f
Position: $10.7k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Forwarded from PolyBeats（EN）
2 Whales Bet on Long Shot: $10.7k on Treasury Sec for Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like Warsh or Rieder, he could potentially force a transfer or mandate a dual role for Bessent.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0xb66582886125a2a2ea966f1ea60ea60b6ecabf8f
Position: $10.7k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like Warsh or Rieder, he could potentially force a transfer or mandate a dual role for Bessent.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0xb66582886125a2a2ea966f1ea60ea60b6ecabf8f
Position: $10.7k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
High-Win-Rate Crypto Specialist Bets MegaETH Won’t Airdrop Before Feb 15
On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious account opened a $2k position at an average price of 47¢ betting that MegaETH will not conduct an airdrop before February 15. The current probability for this outcome stands at 63%.
Profitability analysis indicates this account has secured 9 wins (+$33.2k) against 3 losses (-$759) in specific crypto prediction categories, including project launch FDV, Airdrop/TGE dates, and ICO raises. These statistics exclude bets on general token price movements.
The Ethereum Layer 2 project MegaETH saw its token, MEGA, added to the Coinbase listing roadmap on January 7. On January 23, the project announced the official launch of stress testing, with plans to replay all historical transactions within one week. As of January 28, MegaETH has not officially announced a confirmed airdrop date.
Account: 0xe7142d1bfd31dc215922a4c7b5ac613a3e01d510
Position: $2k
-----------------------
See tomorrow, tod...
On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious account opened a $2k position at an average price of 47¢ betting that MegaETH will not conduct an airdrop before February 15. The current probability for this outcome stands at 63%.
Profitability analysis indicates this account has secured 9 wins (+$33.2k) against 3 losses (-$759) in specific crypto prediction categories, including project launch FDV, Airdrop/TGE dates, and ICO raises. These statistics exclude bets on general token price movements.
The Ethereum Layer 2 project MegaETH saw its token, MEGA, added to the Coinbase listing roadmap on January 7. On January 23, the project announced the official launch of stress testing, with plans to replay all historical transactions within one week. As of January 28, MegaETH has not officially announced a confirmed airdrop date.
Account: 0xe7142d1bfd31dc215922a4c7b5ac613a3e01d510
Position: $2k
-----------------------
See tomorrow, tod...
New Address Bets $39.5k on US Strike on Iran by End of Feb or March
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $39.5k over the past day that the US will strike Iran before the end of February or March. The position includes $26.4k bet on a strike before March 31 (average entry 55¢, current price 56¢) and $13.1k bet on a strike before February 28 (average entry 46¢, current price 45¢).
The Guardian reports that the US has announced multi-day aerial military exercises in the Middle East led by US Central Command (CENTCOM), confirming the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group in the region. The drills involve multiple aircraft, including F-15Es and British Typhoon fighters, and are viewed as a demonstration of rapid deployment and air combat capabilities. Although officially labeled as routine, the exercises coincide with escalating US-Iran tensions and are interpreted as a preparatory posture for potential military action.
Account: 0xe13dabe73fbda02a0c7199e2f4a096aa856244...
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $39.5k over the past day that the US will strike Iran before the end of February or March. The position includes $26.4k bet on a strike before March 31 (average entry 55¢, current price 56¢) and $13.1k bet on a strike before February 28 (average entry 46¢, current price 45¢).
The Guardian reports that the US has announced multi-day aerial military exercises in the Middle East led by US Central Command (CENTCOM), confirming the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group in the region. The drills involve multiple aircraft, including F-15Es and British Typhoon fighters, and are viewed as a demonstration of rapid deployment and air combat capabilities. Although officially labeled as routine, the exercises coincide with escalating US-Iran tensions and are interpreted as a preparatory posture for potential military action.
Account: 0xe13dabe73fbda02a0c7199e2f4a096aa856244...