On the prediction market Polymarket, three new accounts have wagered a total of $23.6k over the past day that the US or Israel will strike Iran between Jan 26 and Jan 31. Of this, $10k is bet specifically on a US strike occurring before Jan 26. The current probability of a US strike before Jan 26 stands at 11%, while the probability for a strike before Jan 31 is 26%.
On the prediction market Polymarket, three new accounts have wagered a total of $23.6k over the past day that the US or Israel will strike Iran between Jan 26 and Jan 31. Of this, $10k is bet specifically on a US strike occurring before Jan 26. The current probability of a US strike before Jan 26 stands at 11%, while the probability for a strike before Jan 31 is 26%.
Forwarded from PolyBeats（EN）
ICO Rule Change & Team Dump Spark Outrage; Community Calls for Trove Founder's Arrest
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Trove Founder arrested by Mar 31?" was created today, with the probability currently standing at 29%.
Trove Markets, a DEX project for RWA trading promoted since late last year, was founded by the anonymous account "unwisecap."
Recent suspicious behavior by the Trove team has sparked outrage among the community and investors. During the ICO phase, the team abruptly modified rules, causing drastic shifts in Polymarket's "ICO Raise Amount" market and fueling suspicions of insider betting prior to the change. On January 18, the project announced a migration from the Hyperliquid ecosystem to Solana, and angel round funds were subsequently traced to casino addresses.
Following the official launch of the TROVE token on Solana on January 19, multiple new wallets that received large allocations dumped their holdings immediately, crashing the price by over 95% within 15 minutes. Additionally, funds raised in excess during the presale have not been refunded, with the team claiming they will be used for "rebuilding" or personal purposes.
Currently, on-chain sleuth ZachXBT has exposed a photo of the suspected founder, and multiple investors have begun retaining lawyers to initiate a class-action lawsuit against unwisecap.
---------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Trove Founder arrested by Mar 31?" was created today, with the probability currently standing at 29%.
Trove Markets, a DEX project for RWA trading promoted since late last year, was founded by the anonymous account "unwisecap."
Recent suspicious behavior by the Trove team has sparked outrage among the community and investors. During the ICO phase, the team abruptly modified rules, causing drastic shifts in Polymarket's "ICO Raise Amount" market and fueling suspicions of insider betting prior to the change. On January 18, the project announced a migration from the Hyperliquid ecosystem to Solana, and angel round funds were subsequently traced to casino addresses.
Following the official launch of the TROVE token on Solana on January 19, multiple new wallets that received large allocations dumped their holdings immediately, crashing the price by over 95% within 15 minutes. Additionally, funds raised in excess during the presale have not been refunded, with the team claiming they will be used for "rebuilding" or personal purposes.
Currently, on-chain sleuth ZachXBT has exposed a photo of the suspected founder, and multiple investors have begun retaining lawyers to initiate a class-action lawsuit against unwisecap.
---------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
ICO Rule Change & Team Dump Spark Outrage; Community Calls for Trove Founder's Arrest
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Trove Founder arrested by Mar 31?" was created today, with the probability currently standing at 29%.
Trove Markets, a DEX project for RWA trading promoted since late last year, was founded by the anonymous account "unwisecap."
Recent suspicious behavior by the Trove team has sparked outrage among the community and investors. During the ICO phase, the team abruptly modified rules, causing drastic shifts in Polymarket's "ICO Raise Amount" market and fueling suspicions of insider betting prior to the change. On January 18, the project announced a migration from the Hyperliquid ecosystem to Solana, and angel round funds were subsequently traced to casino addresses.
Following the official launch of the TROVE token on Solana on January 19, multiple new wallets that received large allocations dumped their holdings immediately, crashing the price by over 95% within 15 minutes. Additionally, funds raised in excess during the presale have not been refunded, with the team claiming they will be used for "rebuilding" or personal purposes.
Currently, on-chain sleuth ZachXBT has exposed a photo of the suspected founder, and multiple investors have begun retaining lawyers to initiate a class-action lawsuit against unwisecap.
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Trove Founder arrested by Mar 31?" was created today, with the probability currently standing at 29%.
Trove Markets, a DEX project for RWA trading promoted since late last year, was founded by the anonymous account "unwisecap."
Recent suspicious behavior by the Trove team has sparked outrage among the community and investors. During the ICO phase, the team abruptly modified rules, causing drastic shifts in Polymarket's "ICO Raise Amount" market and fueling suspicions of insider betting prior to the change. On January 18, the project announced a migration from the Hyperliquid ecosystem to Solana, and angel round funds were subsequently traced to casino addresses.
Following the official launch of the TROVE token on Solana on January 19, multiple new wallets that received large allocations dumped their holdings immediately, crashing the price by over 95% within 15 minutes. Additionally, funds raised in excess during the presale have not been refunded, with the team claiming they will be used for "rebuilding" or personal purposes.
Currently, on-chain sleuth ZachXBT has exposed a photo of the suspected founder, and multiple investors have begun retaining lawyers to initiate a class-action lawsuit against unwisecap.
Forwarded from PolyBeats（EN）
New Address Bets $8.5k on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair; Previously Reported VC Continues Accumulation
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, a new address wagered $8.5k that Rick Rieder will be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Simultaneously, the prominent VC address previously reported by this channel added another $13.3k to its position on Rieder. His implied probability currently stands at 27.3%, continuing the upward trend from yesterday.
Recently, Trump emphasized that the "new Fed Chair selection will be decided soon." Rieder's odds improved after Trump's transition team highlighted his fixed-income management experience at BlackRock and described him as a "market-friendly outsider." Meanwhile, support for Christopher Waller has receded, potentially because the Trump camp leans toward appointing a non-incumbent official.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0x817abf38d75aa526db01da7f94bc4bf8023d7f1c
Total Position: $105.1k
-----------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, a new address wagered $8.5k that Rick Rieder will be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Simultaneously, the prominent VC address previously reported by this channel added another $13.3k to its position on Rieder. His implied probability currently stands at 27.3%, continuing the upward trend from yesterday.
Recently, Trump emphasized that the "new Fed Chair selection will be decided soon." Rieder's odds improved after Trump's transition team highlighted his fixed-income management experience at BlackRock and described him as a "market-friendly outsider." Meanwhile, support for Christopher Waller has receded, potentially because the Trump camp leans toward appointing a non-incumbent official.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0x817abf38d75aa526db01da7f94bc4bf8023d7f1c
Total Position: $105.1k
-----------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Forwarded from PolyBeats
三个新地址下注 $23.6k 美国将在数日内袭击伊朗
在预测市场 Polymarket 上，过去一日内有三个新账户共下注 $23.6k 美国或以色列将在 1.26~1.31 前袭击伊朗，其中美国在 1.26 前袭击伊朗的开仓共 $10k，目前美国在 1.26 前袭击伊朗的概率为 11%，美国在 1.31 前袭击伊朗的概率为 26%。
过去一日内，美伊紧张局势继续升温，伊朗高级官员公开警告，任何来自美国的军事攻击都将被视为「全面战争」，并将遭到强力回应；美国总统称一支由「航空母舰及驱逐舰组成的舰队」正驶向中东以监视伊朗局势，并且宣布对 9 艘与伊朗石油贸易相关的油轮及关联方实施制裁，冻结资产并禁止交易。
账户：
0xc37c6c989bc5d86b3eb6095020899fedd585cd7e
0x10b228189907b678fecf998f87237a6d69ddcc72
0x7f5d096244365ebf7dd351a5fc002e7a7fcf78fb
总开仓：$23.6k
---------------------------------
让你更早看到未来，关注 @PolyBeats_Bot
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
在预测市场 Polymarket 上，过去一日内有三个新账户共下注 $23.6k 美国或以色列将在 1.26~1.31 前袭击伊朗，其中美国在 1.26 前袭击伊朗的开仓共 $10k，目前美国在 1.26 前袭击伊朗的概率为 11%，美国在 1.31 前袭击伊朗的概率为 26%。
过去一日内，美伊紧张局势继续升温，伊朗高级官员公开警告，任何来自美国的军事攻击都将被视为「全面战争」，并将遭到强力回应；美国总统称一支由「航空母舰及驱逐舰组成的舰队」正驶向中东以监视伊朗局势，并且宣布对 9 艘与伊朗石油贸易相关的油轮及关联方实施制裁，冻结资产并禁止交易。
账户：
0xc37c6c989bc5d86b3eb6095020899fedd585cd7e
0x10b228189907b678fecf998f87237a6d69ddcc72
0x7f5d096244365ebf7dd351a5fc002e7a7fcf78fb
总开仓：$23.6k
---------------------------------
让你更早看到未来，关注 @PolyBeats_Bot
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
三个新地址下注 $23.6k 美国将在数日内袭击伊朗
在预测市场 Polymarket 上，过去一日内有三个新账户共下注 $23.6k 美国或以色列将在 1.26~1.31 前袭击伊朗，其中美国在 1.26 前袭击伊朗的开仓共 $10k，目前美国在 1.26 前袭击伊朗的概率为 11%，美国在 1.31 前袭击伊朗的概率为 26%。
过去一日内，美伊紧张局势继续升温，伊朗高级官员公开警告，任何来自美国的军事攻击都将被视为「全面战争」，并将遭到强力回应；美国总统称一支由「航空母舰及驱逐舰组成的舰队」正驶向中东以监视伊朗局势，并且宣布对 9 艘与伊朗石油贸易相关的油轮及关联方实施制裁，冻结资产并禁止交易。
账户：
0xc37c6c989bc5d86b3eb6095020899fedd585cd7e
0x10b228189907b678fecf998f87237a6d69ddcc72
0x7f5d096244365ebf7dd351a5fc002e7a7fcf78fb
总开仓：$23.6k
---------------------------------
让你更早看到未来，关注 @PolyBeats_Bot
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
在预测市场 Polymarket 上，过去一日内有三个新账户共下注 $23.6k 美国或以色列将在 1.26~1.31 前袭击伊朗，其中美国在 1.26 前袭击伊朗的开仓共 $10k，目前美国在 1.26 前袭击伊朗的概率为 11%，美国在 1.31 前袭击伊朗的概率为 26%。
过去一日内，美伊紧张局势继续升温，伊朗高级官员公开警告，任何来自美国的军事攻击都将被视为「全面战争」，并将遭到强力回应；美国总统称一支由「航空母舰及驱逐舰组成的舰队」正驶向中东以监视伊朗局势，并且宣布对 9 艘与伊朗石油贸易相关的油轮及关联方实施制裁，冻结资产并禁止交易。
账户：
0xc37c6c989bc5d86b3eb6095020899fedd585cd7e
0x10b228189907b678fecf998f87237a6d69ddcc72
0x7f5d096244365ebf7dd351a5fc002e7a7fcf78fb
总开仓：$23.6k
---------------------------------
让你更早看到未来，关注 @PolyBeats_Bot
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Forwarded from PolyBeats（EN）
MrBeast's "Beast Games" S2: 4 Suspicious Accounts Bet $25k on Contestant 167
On the prediction market Polymarket, four suspicious accounts have wagered $25,000 on contestant #167 to win Season 2 of Beast Games. The contestant currently holds a winning probability of 73%.
The position sizes for these accounts in this specific market are more than 10 times their average across other markets, with the majority of their holdings highly concentrated on this outcome.
Beast Games, the reality competition hosted by top creator MrBeast, premiered its second season on January 7. As the field narrows after several rounds, Contestant #167 (Tyler) has excelled in physical challenges—such as rope climbing and obstacle courses—as well as strategic gameplay.
Accounts: 0x1d718065c53a616051136b0ada70d7d94c436c23 0xd4bb827c0227774bcde1bd881b36c7d93854a993 0x9a3ac5aaedb9294d50133959f2f60f45e47699fe 0x7879fc0d6a6f21d892c8b80d51dde576608b822a
Position: $24.9k
--------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, four suspicious accounts have wagered $25,000 on contestant #167 to win Season 2 of Beast Games. The contestant currently holds a winning probability of 73%.
The position sizes for these accounts in this specific market are more than 10 times their average across other markets, with the majority of their holdings highly concentrated on this outcome.
Beast Games, the reality competition hosted by top creator MrBeast, premiered its second season on January 7. As the field narrows after several rounds, Contestant #167 (Tyler) has excelled in physical challenges—such as rope climbing and obstacle courses—as well as strategic gameplay.
Accounts: 0x1d718065c53a616051136b0ada70d7d94c436c23 0xd4bb827c0227774bcde1bd881b36c7d93854a993 0x9a3ac5aaedb9294d50133959f2f60f45e47699fe 0x7879fc0d6a6f21d892c8b80d51dde576608b822a
Position: $24.9k
--------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Forwarded from PolyBeats（EN）
MrBeast's "Beast Games" S2: 4 Suspicious Accounts Bet $25k on Contestant 167
On the prediction market Polymarket, four suspicious accounts have wagered $25,000 on contestant #167 to win Season 2 of Beast Games. The contestant currently holds a winning probability of 73%.
The position sizes for these accounts in this specific market are more than 10 times their average across other markets, with the majority of their holdings highly concentrated on this outcome.
Beast Games, the reality competition hosted by top creator MrBeast, premiered its second season on January 7. As the field narrows after several rounds, Contestant #167 (Tyler) has excelled in physical challenges—such as rope climbing and obstacle courses—as well as strategic gameplay.
Accounts: 0x1d718065c53a616051136b0ada70d7d94c436c23 0xd4bb827c0227774bcde1bd881b36c7d93854a993 0x9a3ac5aaedb9294d50133959f2f60f45e47699fe 0x7879fc0d6a6f21d892c8b80d51dde576608b822a
Position: $24.9k
--------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, four suspicious accounts have wagered $25,000 on contestant #167 to win Season 2 of Beast Games. The contestant currently holds a winning probability of 73%.
The position sizes for these accounts in this specific market are more than 10 times their average across other markets, with the majority of their holdings highly concentrated on this outcome.
Beast Games, the reality competition hosted by top creator MrBeast, premiered its second season on January 7. As the field narrows after several rounds, Contestant #167 (Tyler) has excelled in physical challenges—such as rope climbing and obstacle courses—as well as strategic gameplay.
Accounts: 0x1d718065c53a616051136b0ada70d7d94c436c23 0xd4bb827c0227774bcde1bd881b36c7d93854a993 0x9a3ac5aaedb9294d50133959f2f60f45e47699fe 0x7879fc0d6a6f21d892c8b80d51dde576608b822a
Position: $24.9k
--------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
MrBeast's "Beast Games" S2: 4 Suspicious Accounts Bet $25k on Contestant 167
On the prediction market Polymarket, four suspicious accounts have wagered $25,000 on contestant #167 to win Season 2 of Beast Games. The contestant currently holds a winning probability of 73%.
The position sizes for these accounts in this specific market are more than 10 times their average across other markets, with the majority of their holdings highly concentrated on this outcome.
Beast Games, the reality competition hosted by top creator MrBeast, premiered its second season on January 7. As the field narrows after several rounds, Contestant #167 (Tyler) has excelled in physical challenges—such as rope climbing and obstacle courses—as well as strategic gameplay.
Accounts: 0x1d718065c53a616051136b0ada70d7d94c436c23 0xd4bb827c0227774bcde1bd881b36c7d93854a993 0x9a3ac5aaedb9294d50133959f2f60f45e47699fe 0x7879fc0d6a6f21d892c8b80d51dde576608b822a
Position: $24.9k
--------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, four suspicious accounts have wagered $25,000 on contestant #167 to win Season 2 of Beast Games. The contestant currently holds a winning probability of 73%.
The position sizes for these accounts in this specific market are more than 10 times their average across other markets, with the majority of their holdings highly concentrated on this outcome.
Beast Games, the reality competition hosted by top creator MrBeast, premiered its second season on January 7. As the field narrows after several rounds, Contestant #167 (Tyler) has excelled in physical challenges—such as rope climbing and obstacle courses—as well as strategic gameplay.
Accounts: 0x1d718065c53a616051136b0ada70d7d94c436c23 0xd4bb827c0227774bcde1bd881b36c7d93854a993 0x9a3ac5aaedb9294d50133959f2f60f45e47699fe 0x7879fc0d6a6f21d892c8b80d51dde576608b822a
Position: $24.9k
--------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Forwarded from PolyBeats（EN）
MrBeast's "Beast Games" S2: 4 Suspicious Accounts Bet $25k on Contestant 167
On the prediction market Polymarket, four suspicious accounts have wagered $25,000 on contestant #167 to win Season 2 of Beast Games. The contestant currently holds a winning probability of 73%.
The position sizes for these accounts in this specific market are more than 10 times their average across other markets, with the majority of their holdings highly concentrated on this outcome.
Beast Games, the reality competition hosted by top creator MrBeast, premiered its second season on January 7. As the field narrows after several rounds, Contestant #167 (Tyler) has excelled in physical challenges—such as rope climbing and obstacle courses—as well as strategic gameplay.
Accounts: 0x1d718065c53a616051136b0ada70d7d94c436c23 0xd4bb827c0227774bcde1bd881b36c7d93854a993 0x9a3ac5aaedb9294d50133959f2f60f45e47699fe 0x7879fc0d6a6f21d892c8b80d51dde576608b822a
Position: $24.9k
--------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, four suspicious accounts have wagered $25,000 on contestant #167 to win Season 2 of Beast Games. The contestant currently holds a winning probability of 73%.
The position sizes for these accounts in this specific market are more than 10 times their average across other markets, with the majority of their holdings highly concentrated on this outcome.
Beast Games, the reality competition hosted by top creator MrBeast, premiered its second season on January 7. As the field narrows after several rounds, Contestant #167 (Tyler) has excelled in physical challenges—such as rope climbing and obstacle courses—as well as strategic gameplay.
Accounts: 0x1d718065c53a616051136b0ada70d7d94c436c23 0xd4bb827c0227774bcde1bd881b36c7d93854a993 0x9a3ac5aaedb9294d50133959f2f60f45e47699fe 0x7879fc0d6a6f21d892c8b80d51dde576608b822a
Position: $24.9k
--------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Forwarded from PolyBeats（EN）
Three New Addresses Bet $23.6k on US Strike on Iran Within Days
On the prediction market Polymarket, three new accounts have wagered a total of $23.6k over the past day that the US or Israel will strike Iran between Jan 26 and Jan 31. Of this, $10k is bet specifically on a US strike occurring before Jan 26. The current probability of a US strike before Jan 26 stands at 11%, while the probability for a strike before Jan 31 is 26%.
US-Iran tensions have continued to escalate over the last 24 hours. A senior Iranian official publicly warned that any military attack by the US would be considered "total war" and met with a forceful response. Meanwhile, the US President announced that a fleet composed of "aircraft carriers and destroyers" is steaming toward the Middle East to monitor the situation. Additionally, the US imposed sanctions on nine oil tankers and associated parties involved in the Iranian oil trade, freezing assets and prohibiting transactions.
Accounts: 0xc37c6c989bc5d86b3eb6095020899fedd585cd7e 0x10b228189907b678fecf998f87237a6d69ddcc72 0x7f5d096244365ebf7dd351a5fc002e7a7fcf78fb
Total Position: $23.6k
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, three new accounts have wagered a total of $23.6k over the past day that the US or Israel will strike Iran between Jan 26 and Jan 31. Of this, $10k is bet specifically on a US strike occurring before Jan 26. The current probability of a US strike before Jan 26 stands at 11%, while the probability for a strike before Jan 31 is 26%.
US-Iran tensions have continued to escalate over the last 24 hours. A senior Iranian official publicly warned that any military attack by the US would be considered "total war" and met with a forceful response. Meanwhile, the US President announced that a fleet composed of "aircraft carriers and destroyers" is steaming toward the Middle East to monitor the situation. Additionally, the US imposed sanctions on nine oil tankers and associated parties involved in the Iranian oil trade, freezing assets and prohibiting transactions.
Accounts: 0xc37c6c989bc5d86b3eb6095020899fedd585cd7e 0x10b228189907b678fecf998f87237a6d69ddcc72 0x7f5d096244365ebf7dd351a5fc002e7a7fcf78fb
Total Position: $23.6k
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Address Bets $5.8k on Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by Year-End
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $5.8k within the last five hours that Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire before the end of 2026. The position was entered at a cost of 43¢, and the current probability stands at 44%, having fluctuated between 41% and 44% over the last three days.
In the past two days, Zelenskyy stated that the text of a US-backed security guarantee agreement is "fully ready" for review as part of a potential ceasefire or peace framework, though he noted the agreement itself is not a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Russia, the US, and Ukraine held their first direct trilateral talks since 2022 in Abu Dhabi. Although no ceasefire or peace deal was reached, the parties described the meeting as "constructive" and agreed to keep channels of dialogue open.
Account: 0x2f03c2a4ea6cdb5e0eac5c29a58981339c70ec6a
Position: $5.8k
--------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $5.8k within the last five hours that Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire before the end of 2026. The position was entered at a cost of 43¢, and the current probability stands at 44%, having fluctuated between 41% and 44% over the last three days.
In the past two days, Zelenskyy stated that the text of a US-backed security guarantee agreement is "fully ready" for review as part of a potential ceasefire or peace framework, though he noted the agreement itself is not a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Russia, the US, and Ukraine held their first direct trilateral talks since 2022 in Abu Dhabi. Although no ceasefire or peace deal was reached, the parties described the meeting as "constructive" and agreed to keep channels of dialogue open.
Account: 0x2f03c2a4ea6cdb5e0eac5c29a58981339c70ec6a
Position: $5.8k
--------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Address Bets $19k on Israel Striking Iran Before Jan 31
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $19k over the past day that Israel will strike Iran before January 31. The position was entered at a cost of 25¢, with the current price sitting at 16¢. The market probability has fluctuated between 14% and 25% over the last three days.
On January 23, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated in a television interview that there are indications Israel is still seeking an opportunity to launch an attack on Iran, warning that such actions could further destabilize the Middle East. Fidan emphasized the hope for alternative paths to avoid conflict but noted that Israel appears actively looking for military opportunities.
Account: 0xb2d7cebe60e8e667b177993e382ff3b95b81312c
Position: $19k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $19k over the past day that Israel will strike Iran before January 31. The position was entered at a cost of 25¢, with the current price sitting at 16¢. The market probability has fluctuated between 14% and 25% over the last three days.
On January 23, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated in a television interview that there are indications Israel is still seeking an opportunity to launch an attack on Iran, warning that such actions could further destabilize the Middle East. Fidan emphasized the hope for alternative paths to avoid conflict but noted that Israel appears actively looking for military opportunities.
Account: 0xb2d7cebe60e8e667b177993e382ff3b95b81312c
Position: $19k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
AI Model Race Heats Up; New Market Shows GPT-5.3 Unlikely to Launch This Week
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the newly created market "GPT-5.3 released by Jan 31?" stands at just 3%.
Rumors regarding GPT-5.3 stem from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's interviews and X posts in late 2025, where he hinted at a "major model breakthrough in early 2026." Community speculation suggests this may refer to a new iteration of the GPT-5 family—potentially GPT-5.3—with a focus on enhanced multimodal capabilities, reasoning, and efficiency.
There are rumors that the internal model previously known by the codename "Garlic" is, in fact, the upcoming GPT-5.3. Given Altman's prior comments regarding significant model breakthroughs, the community anticipates that GPT-5.3 could be revealed to the public in the near future.
---------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the newly created market "GPT-5.3 released by Jan 31?" stands at just 3%.
Rumors regarding GPT-5.3 stem from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's interviews and X posts in late 2025, where he hinted at a "major model breakthrough in early 2026." Community speculation suggests this may refer to a new iteration of the GPT-5 family—potentially GPT-5.3—with a focus on enhanced multimodal capabilities, reasoning, and efficiency.
There are rumors that the internal model previously known by the codename "Garlic" is, in fact, the upcoming GPT-5.3. Given Altman's prior comments regarding significant model breakthroughs, the community anticipates that GPT-5.3 could be revealed to the public in the near future.
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Whale Bets $49k on Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by April; Previously Profited $400k on Israel-Hamas Truce
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account that wagered $112,000 last October on an Israel-Hamas ceasefire—securing a profit of $394,000—has now placed a $49,000 bet that the Russia-Ukraine war will end before April. The probability for a "Yes" outcome currently stands at 15%.
From January 23–25, the US, Russia, and Ukraine held their first high-level direct talks since the full-scale outbreak of the war in 2022. Although parties labeled the meeting "constructive," no breakthrough was reached. A subsequent round of negotiations is tentatively scheduled for February 1.
Trump has publicly declared that a peace deal is "quite close," pressuring both sides to reach an agreement. Zelenskyy later stated that a bilateral security agreement with the US is "100% ready."
Account: 0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
Position: $49k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, an account that wagered $112,000 last October on an Israel-Hamas ceasefire—securing a profit of $394,000—has now placed a $49,000 bet that the Russia-Ukraine war will end before April. The probability for a "Yes" outcome currently stands at 15%.
From January 23–25, the US, Russia, and Ukraine held their first high-level direct talks since the full-scale outbreak of the war in 2022. Although parties labeled the meeting "constructive," no breakthrough was reached. A subsequent round of negotiations is tentatively scheduled for February 1.
Trump has publicly declared that a peace deal is "quite close," pressuring both sides to reach an agreement. Zelenskyy later stated that a bilateral security agreement with the US is "100% ready."
Account: 0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
Position: $49k
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New Address Bets One Battle After Another to Win Best Picture at 98th Oscars
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $4.4k at an average price of 70¢ that One Battle After Another will win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards. The current probability for a "Yes" outcome stands at 69%.
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for March 15, 2026, following the nomination announcement on January 22. As a World War II epic, One Battle After Another secured 9 nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Cinematography. The film has garnered favor among voters for Director Christopher Nolan's signature visual impact and profound anti-war themes.
Account: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d
Position: $4.4k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $4.4k at an average price of 70¢ that One Battle After Another will win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards. The current probability for a "Yes" outcome stands at 69%.
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for March 15, 2026, following the nomination announcement on January 22. As a World War II epic, One Battle After Another secured 9 nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Cinematography. The film has garnered favor among voters for Director Christopher Nolan's signature visual impact and profound anti-war themes.
Account: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d
Position: $4.4k
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New Address Bets $11k on US Strike on Iran Before Jan 31
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address added $5.8k within the last hour to the wager that the US will strike Iran before January 31. The address now holds a total position of $11k on this outcome, with an average cost of 18¢. The current market price stands at 15¢.
Over the past two days, Iranian authorities unveiled a new mural in a Tehran square depicting a destroyed US aircraft carrier accompanied by the warning "You reap what you sow," serving as a direct caution against US military action. This display coincides with the deployment of a US carrier strike group to the Middle East. A senior Iranian official stated that any US military strike would be regarded as "total war," adding that the country's armed forces are on high alert in response to the movement of US troops into the region.
Account: 0x6452018b718265464dcf6d391db99f56ba899874
Position: $11k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address added $5.8k within the last hour to the wager that the US will strike Iran before January 31. The address now holds a total position of $11k on this outcome, with an average cost of 18¢. The current market price stands at 15¢.
Over the past two days, Iranian authorities unveiled a new mural in a Tehran square depicting a destroyed US aircraft carrier accompanied by the warning "You reap what you sow," serving as a direct caution against US military action. This display coincides with the deployment of a US carrier strike group to the Middle East. A senior Iranian official stated that any US military strike would be regarded as "total war," adding that the country's armed forces are on high alert in response to the movement of US troops into the region.
Account: 0x6452018b718265464dcf6d391db99f56ba899874
Position: $11k
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New Address Adds $1.5k to Khamenei Ouster Bet by Jan 31; Total Position $6.6k
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last four hours, a new address added $1.5k at 3¢ to the wager that Ayatollah Khamenei will step down before Jan 31. The address now holds a total position of $6.6k with an average cost of 8¢, while the current market price sits at just 1¢.
Recently, nationwide protests in Iran have faced a massive crackdown. Activists report at least 6,126 deaths and over 40,000 arrests, marking the most severe internal unrest in decades. The government has implemented an unprecedented, prolonged internet blackout and responded with force. Iranian authorities deny the high death toll, blaming the unrest on external forces, while regional Iranian proxy groups have issued strong statements, keeping tensions high but currently in a pre-escalation standoff.
Account: 0x06ef2c450fd28f7991b200c73e3eb5c6a2674859
Position: $6.6k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last four hours, a new address added $1.5k at 3¢ to the wager that Ayatollah Khamenei will step down before Jan 31. The address now holds a total position of $6.6k with an average cost of 8¢, while the current market price sits at just 1¢.
Recently, nationwide protests in Iran have faced a massive crackdown. Activists report at least 6,126 deaths and over 40,000 arrests, marking the most severe internal unrest in decades. The government has implemented an unprecedented, prolonged internet blackout and responded with force. Iranian authorities deny the high death toll, blaming the unrest on external forces, while regional Iranian proxy groups have issued strong statements, keeping tensions high but currently in a pre-escalation standoff.
Account: 0x06ef2c450fd28f7991b200c73e3eb5c6a2674859
Position: $6.6k
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Two New Addresses Bet $17.5k Against Saturday US Gov Shutdown
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last eight hours, a new address wagered $14.1k that the US government will not shut down before this Saturday (Jan 31), entering at an average price of 25¢. Another new address bet $3.4k at an average price of 22¢. The current trading price for "No" is 21¢.
The US Congress remains deeply divided over the ~$64.4 billion Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget. Specifically, Senate Democrats have refused to back the current draft due to conflicts over immigration enforcement reform, increasing the likelihood of a partial shutdown before the January 30 deadline. With the deadline just days away, behind-the-scenes negotiations are ongoing to prevent a partial or full government shutdown.
Accounts: 0x276f765f8d99eb45a7f4126ac7ee331f541ed05e 0x5394e93e653e0e84af2e9219eeff64530aa4e47c
Position: $17.5k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last eight hours, a new address wagered $14.1k that the US government will not shut down before this Saturday (Jan 31), entering at an average price of 25¢. Another new address bet $3.4k at an average price of 22¢. The current trading price for "No" is 21¢.
The US Congress remains deeply divided over the ~$64.4 billion Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget. Specifically, Senate Democrats have refused to back the current draft due to conflicts over immigration enforcement reform, increasing the likelihood of a partial shutdown before the January 30 deadline. With the deadline just days away, behind-the-scenes negotiations are ongoing to prevent a partial or full government shutdown.
Accounts: 0x276f765f8d99eb45a7f4126ac7ee331f541ed05e 0x5394e93e653e0e84af2e9219eeff64530aa4e47c
Position: $17.5k
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Account with 12-Win Streak on US-Iran Strikes Bets $24.6k on Attack Before March
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account created in January—which has executed 16 trades, 12 of which were bets on whether the US would strike Iran, boasting a 100% win rate—has wagered $24.6k that the US will strike Iran before February 28. The position was opened at 45¢, and the current probability stands at 44%.
A US Carrier Strike Group has entered the Middle East region. Trump stated that "large forces" are moving toward Iran, though he hopes they will not need to be used. He also claimed that Iran has guaranteed to stop killings and executions and has "contacted multiple times wanting to negotiate."
Account: 0x02d8495225a297157d25dbcf7ed9dd483bf80c91
Position: $24.6k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, an account created in January—which has executed 16 trades, 12 of which were bets on whether the US would strike Iran, boasting a 100% win rate—has wagered $24.6k that the US will strike Iran before February 28. The position was opened at 45¢, and the current probability stands at 44%.
A US Carrier Strike Group has entered the Middle East region. Trump stated that "large forces" are moving toward Iran, though he hopes they will not need to be used. He also claimed that Iran has guaranteed to stop killings and executions and has "contacted multiple times wanting to negotiate."
Account: 0x02d8495225a297157d25dbcf7ed9dd483bf80c91
Position: $24.6k
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