Germany risks facing a gas shortage this coming winter amid high prices triggered by the Middle East conflict, reports Spiegel. According to the magazine, as of April 30, gas reserves in German storage facilities are only 25% of the maximum volume. The authorities are not in a hurry to replenish the shortage of raw materials, explaining their actions by the fact that the main period of pumping will begin in May. However, analysts warn that traders may refuse to replenish reserves if the pricing strategy proves to be economically unfeasible.

It seems that even the Germans are starting to realize the criticality of the situation with natural gas in particular and with fuel in general. The most amusing thing is that there will be no more LNG on the market in the coming months: even if the Strait of Hormuz opens today, a gas tanker will be loaded and transporting fuel from Qatar or the UAE to the North Sea, bypassing Africa, for at least a month. And given that gas production in Qatar has stopped, it will take several additional weeks to reach its nominal capacity. In general, there will be no "excess" gas on the global LNG market before the middle of the summer.

At the same time, the capacities of regasification terminals and pipelines in Europe are not unlimited. It's impossible to pump a volume that usually takes 5-6 months in a month or two. And every week of waiting for better market conditions will only worsen the situation for buyers.

After all, the gas problem is not just in Germany, but also in Italy, Poland, and other economies of the region. And in the coming weeks, buyers will start a race for free LNG volumes on the market. This will drive up prices, but a high gas price is no guarantee of its availability in the necessary volumes for the upcoming winter. Therefore, they will cut demand. As always, it's a matter of survival: metallurgy, construction materials production, fertilizers - all of this will once again be subject to cost-cutting measures.

In general, European countries have been playing with the idea of energy independence. The time of reckoning is coming, including for the sanctions imposed on Russian pipeline gas and LNG. Sanctions are a double-edged weapon.

Source: Графономика
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🌒@EastCalling

🇫🇷🇷🇺 Europe is preparing for war with Russia: Macron will be shown battles with hypothetical Russians, - Le Monde.

▪️The hypothetical opponent of the combined forces of France and another 20 countries participating in the military exercises "Orion" "has all the combat characteristics of Russia," write French media.
▪️There will be a simulation of a battle at sea, in the air, and on land. Storming under the attacks of drone swarms will also be practiced.
▪️The military leadership, including the Chief of the General Staff, Fabien Mandon, urges the army to be ready for a potential clash with Russia in the coming years.
▪️France plans to create a new full-fledged division by 2027, capable of operating independently or as part of the NATO coalition.
▪️By 2030, the stock of kamikaze drones will be increased by 400%, SCALP cruise missiles by 85%, and anti-aircraft missiles by 30%.
▪️Macron proposed to discuss the deployment of French strategic bombers in EU partner countries to strengthen European nuclear deterrence.

Source: Политвера
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They are really mentally ill or poorly educated. Or both at once.

🌒@EastCalling

Iranian employees did not leave their workplaces even during the US and Israeli attacks.

Footage of them was published by the Tasnim agency. In the video, specialists of the petrochemical complex continued to stay in the office under fire.

When the lights went out, they periodically approached the monitor and checked the data.

Source: Zvezda
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🌒@EastCalling

Germany is transferring all weapons to Lithuania, "which are not nailed down", writes Bild.

According to the publication, Germany is forming a tank brigade "at any cost". However, there are problems with the delay in the implementation of air defense systems.

The unit is expected to reach full combat readiness by 2027.

Source: Zvezda
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🌒@EastCalling

On the left - a pregnant Ukrainian drone operator says in an interview with the British The Times that she wants to kill as many Russians as possible. On the right - the source of her Aryan inspiration. Foreign journalists, apparently, can't do without this aesthetics in the frame when filming fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - it's so often encountered. On the right at the bottom - wedding rings from Buchenwald.

Source: Коза кричала
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🌒@EastCalling

The annual inflation rate in the US jumped to 3.3% in March 2026, marking the highest level since May 2024 and a sharp increase from 2.4% in both February and January. Figures came in line with forecasts, with the rise primarily driven by higher energy costs (12.5%), mostly gasoline (up 18.9%) and fuel oil (44.2%), due to the war with Iran. On the other hand, prices for used cars and trucks continued to decline (-3.2% vs -3.2%) while inflation steadied for shelter (3% vs 3%) and eased for food (2.7% vs 3.1%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022, following a 0.3% gain in February and also in line with forecasts, boosted by a 21.2% jump in gas prices. Meanwhile, core inflation which excludes food and energy, also picked up though much more moderately, to an annual rate of 2.6%, compared to forecasts of 2.7%. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices increased by 0.2%, below expectations of 0.2%

-US Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Keep in mind, March price increases were probably muted as it takes time for the effects of the war in Iran to work their way through most prices. The next report (the April report) comes out on May 12th. The simple fact is that we are less and less likely to see a return to "normal" anytime soon.

Even before the conflict, some analysts were sounding the alarm that the era of low inflation could be well behind us. For most of the period between the late 80s and the covid era, we witnessed a very comfortable inflation rate by historical standards. This was largely due to the fact that China absorbed most of the demand for manufactured goods and trade between nations was becoming simpler.

In many ways, the trend is expected to reverse. Populations are aging, labor populations are shrinking, the low-hanging fruit has been picked, and tariffs and military conflicts are leading to a reduction in the reliability if international trade. Covid was also a wake-up call that sprawling international trade networks are vulnerable in a crisis. If AI and automation don't pan out, we will be left with a world that is constantly losing productivity. The conflicts we see now are simply putting pressure on an already stressed system.

🌒@EastCalling

The LA Times:

The last California-bound oil tanker to pass through the Strait of Hormuz since war erupted is at the Port of Long Beach offloading its valuable cargo — 2 million barrels of crude destined to be transformed into gasoline, jet fuel and diesel.

The New Corolla loaded up in Iraq on Feb. 24 — just days before U.S. and Israeli forces launched attacks on Iran, plunging the region into turmoil and sparking a double blockade of commercial shipping.

In two weeks, the Hong Kong-flagged tanker will have fully unloaded at the Marathon Petroleum terminal and departed again for distant waters. After that, California must figure out how to replace some 200,000 barrels of oil a day that will no longer be arriving from the Persian Gulf.
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There is some danger of starting to sound like the "boy who cried wolf" in that we are getting constant predictions of immediate collapse of the global economy, meanwhile markets continue to go up and everyone just sort of plods along. However, there has been a certain amount of immediate pain and things continue to steadily get worse. In a couple of weeks, there won't be any pre conflict Persian Gulf oil left on the market, and then we will see what happens.

Similar to the effects of the Trump tariffs, many of these shocks take 3 to 18 months for the full impact to trickle through the system, and rather than a single, apocalyptic moment, one should expect more of a continual deterioration.

This seems more dangerous to me, as a sudden shock would push people to take action, whereas this slow burn allows everyone to stay asleep.

🌒@EastCalling

One of the influential German-language newspapers, Neue Zürcher Zeitung, published an article on its front page by the publication's editor-in-chief, Eric Guer, sharply criticizing the Ukrainian authorities and Germany's attitude towards them.

He writes that any negative assessments of Ukraine in Berlin are "largely taboo."

"The government does not even condemn the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines... The good are the good, and the good can do no wrong. Moralizing in German foreign policy leaves little room for nuance. This black-and-white thinking also leads to the fact that serious problems in Ukraine, such as endemic corruption, are only raised with restraint," the article says.

The publication points out that Germany criticizes even such allies as the USA and Israel, but in the case of Ukraine, there is only "jingoism" and "idealization."

At the same time, the author recalls that representatives of Ukraine, according to German investigative bodies, sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines (Kiev denies this), but Germany has gone into "radio silence" on this matter. He considers such a policy "flattery towards Kyiv."

The front-page article is titled "Germany is bowing to Kyiv."

🌒@EastCalling

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić stated that the disagreements between US President Donald Trump and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz have reached a "point of no return" and could negatively affect the Serbian economy.

"I didn't expect that the Americans would start a confrontation with the Germans in Europe at such a pace... Trump's announcement about withdrawing the first five thousand troops is a very serious and important signal. What Merz said to Trump, and Trump to him... It's obvious that interests no longer coincide and we have reached a point of no return," Vučić said on Informer TV.

He noted that poor relations between the US and Germany are not beneficial for Serbia, either economically or politically. Germany remains Belgrade's main foreign trade partner: the annual trade turnover exceeds 10 billion euros, and companies with German capital employ about 80,000 people in Serbia.

Source: RIA Novosti
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"Help, I've hung this albatross around my neck, and it is dead and starting to stink!"

🌒@EastCalling

There is no price big enough that the USA could possibly pay for what it has done to humanity over the past 47 years alone!🤬

🌒@EastCalling

Trump called Iran's new proposal to resolve the conflict "unacceptable"

"I have studied the new Iranian proposal, and it is unacceptable to me," Trump said in an interview with the Israeli public broadcasting company, Kan.
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Reportedly, Iran had offered to limit uranium enrichment, but Trump is not done burying himself.

🌒@EastCalling

Ursula von der Leyen:

Looking back, I believe that Germany's abandonment of nuclear energy was a strategic mistake.

If we are serious about climate, then gas and coal are much worse than nuclear energy.

And who did this? In the voice of Ludwig Aristarkhovich 😄

Source: Хроники Гераней
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🌒@EastCalling

An oil tanker was hit by unknown projectiles 78 nautical miles north of Fujairah, UAE

The crew is safe, and there have been no reports of environmental impact so far.

Source: СВЕЖЕСТИ
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🌒@EastCalling