АДЕКВАТ Z on recent events around Iran:

🈁When the alpha-chimp keeps boasting that the negotiations with Iran are going better than ever and victory is just around the corner, even the most naive can't believe him anymore. But when the Persians themselves say that the Americans were literally begging for a 48-hour ceasefire, and the response was given with missile strikes on targets, there's no need to doubt it for a moment. Not only because trusting the pedophile coalition is unthinkable even a little bit, but also because they [Epstein's coalition] are objectively more interested in a brief ceasefire now: to evacuate all unnecessary people from the theater and to beg for at least a small window for the unimpeded deployment of invasion forces.

All this probing is taking place against the backdrop of an unprecedented, who-knows-how-many-decades-long debacle of the American Air Force. According to the most cautious estimates, three planes and a helicopter were lost in a reliable minus in a single day, and Iran has announced roughly twice as many losses. And it's hard to imagine that the announced losses, especially all of them, don't have any basis in reality, in the form of either destruction or at least defeat.

How many of the military whore-coop have been spouting loyal (and is it just a coincidence that it's exactly this kind of loyalty?) drivel about the complete dominance of the aggressors in Iranian airspace - it's impossible to count. But in the second month of the war, the air defense is performing in such a way that no private one-time incident can be blamed for the result. And this is not even mentioning all that is systematically hitting the aggressors at their own airfields, the real results of the ongoing rout of which have yet to be leaked to the public. As well as the truth about the aggressor's losses - officially not acknowledging a single new American casualty in recent weeks is, of course, a very powerful decision, especially against the backdrop of daily hits with an increasingly exhausted air defense. But when water finds its first hole, the entire dam of lies, or rather, silence, could collapse very quickly, and then it will all seem insufficient in every sense.

And every such American fiasco, whether confirmed or waiting for its moment to leak, makes a ground operation not only inevitable, but also increasingly foolish. Trying to retreat without achieving even minimal goals and, moreover, leaving Iran full control over the strait would be a complete suicide with a real prospect of two-thirds of votes for impeachment in the Senate, so there's no way around a go-big-or-go-home strategy.

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🌒@EastCalling

Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil infrastructure are not yet having the expected effect and may even increase Moscow's revenues.

Such an assessment was made by Alexander Kolyandr, a researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis, who previously worked at The Wall Street Journal and Credit Suisse, in the pages of the Spectator magazine.

He recalls Reuters data, according to which 40% of Russia's export capacities were subject to various types of strikes in March.

However, it is necessary to take into account the mechanics of forming Russian oil revenues. After the 2024 tax reform, the Russian budget receives the bulk of these revenues through a production tax, which depends on the price of oil on the global market and production volumes, rather than on exports. That is, the money enters the budget at the moment of oil extraction, even if it is not sent abroad.

Against this backdrop, strikes on infrastructure reduce the supply on the global market and contribute to price increases, including for Russian oil. Due to supply disruptions and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, oil has already exceeded $100 per barrel, and the average price of Urals in March could be 50% higher than in February.

This directly increases the Russian budget's revenues: every $10 increase in the price adds about $1.5 billion per month. In March, the additional income could be about $4.5 billion, even if there is a drop in exports.

As a result, the opposite effect occurs: the reduction in physical supplies is offset by price increases, and the budget receives more. As Kolyandr notes, "at a price of $65, the strategy worked, but at $100 and above, the arithmetic turns in the other direction."

🌒@EastCalling

Krasny Liman is enveloped in a web of fiber-optic cable.

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Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi calls out the hypocrisy of western comments on the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant and the silence on the Bushehr Plant.

🌒@EastCalling

The fate of the second pilot of the downed American F-15E fighter jet, who went missing in Iran, could determine the course of the conflict in the Middle East, reports The Daily Telegraph.

According to its information, in the event of a successful search and rescue operation, Trump might consider expanding the operation against Iran. However, if Iran shows footage of the captured pilot, the US Congress and American public will begin to put intense pressure on Trump to initiate negotiations.

Via TASS

🌒@EastCalling

Military Chronicle:

Today, Iran deployed the widest possible geography of launch positions: from the Mazandaran province in the north to the Lar missile base in the south. It's noteworthy that the launches were carried out even from the most "remote" storage facilities and platforms - objects that are as far as possible from Israel or isolated from main bases.

In the evening, Iran managed to launch about 20 missiles in a short period of time, distributing 1–2 units to each of the "green" zones. Tehran continues the tactic of alternating target zones in Israel. After a week of intensive strikes on southern and central regions, today the main fire was concentrated in the north of Israel.

In parallel, strikes on the infrastructure of US allies in the region were recorded:

▪️Kuwait: The Shuwaikh port, a power station, and a desalination plant were hit. The Mina al-Ahmad oil refinery was attacked by drones.

▪️Bahrain: A strike was carried out on the Jabal al-Dukhan radar station.

▪️UAE: The country's largest gas processing plant, Habshan, was damaged.

🌒@EastCalling

The most comprehensive list of losses of American aviation during the five-week operation "Epic Fury" in Iran.

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Via Geranium Chronicles:

The total export of petroleum products from the Middle East in March plummeted by 63%, or 4.8 million barrels per day, to approximately 2.8 million barrels per day, according to market analysts - Bloomberg

Of the remaining ~2.8 million barrels per day, about 1.1 million barrels per day (or 39%) go through Saudi Arabian ports on the Red Sea, bypassing the closed Strait of Hormuz. Aviation fuel was hit hardest: its exports fell by 85%, causing flight cancellations and fuel shortages in Asia-Pacific countries. At the same time, exports of liquefied petroleum gas and oil decreased by 1.0 million barrels per day.

Exports of diesel, gasoline, and fuel oil also sharply declined - the drop ranged from 60% to 70%.

🌒@EastCalling

Armenia will withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) if Russia decides to raise the prices of gas supplied to the republic, said parliamentary speaker Aren Simonyan.

He added that he doesn't think it will come to that.

Source: Russian media
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Well, to spite my grandma, I'll freeze my ears off, but on the state level.

🌒@EastCalling

🇪🇺 Croatian MEP Kolakusic on the fact that Europeans' money is being taken from EU citizens in favor of Ukraine:

"Every euro from the EU budget was taken from citizens, be they pensioners, unemployed, working people, or schoolchildren. They want a better standard of living with this money. And what have they gotten? Massive inflation. Inflation is the result of hundreds of billions of euros wasted on non-existent "green" initiatives and non-existent vaccines.

And now, on the one hand, we have Orban, who wants to protect the EU budget and prevent 90 billion euros of EU citizens' money from ending up in Ukraine's hands, and on the other hand, we have Mrs. von der Leyen, who once again skipped out of work today. She skipped out cowardly, because she can't handle a three-hour stay at her workplace. Therefore, we need to send security guards to detain her. A woman who can't work three hours a month will achieve nothing. And what is this? A disgrace."

🌒@EastCalling

Russian drones struck the Naftogaz facility in Poltava earlier in the morning.

🌒@EastCalling

КАЦМАН:

How come the oil terminals are intact and undamaged? Oh well, the military idiots were lying, spreading lies about the port being burned down and put out of action? Or were they talking about Kuwait or Qatar? Or Bahrain or the United Arab Emirates? No way! Such disgusting, ugly bastards can't help but lie honest, decent people can't lie!
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It's real, I checked Bloomberg.

🌒@EastCalling

Geran231:

Today, Iran launched 23 ballistic missiles and 56 drones at the UAE.

🌒@EastCalling

#MomentofZin

Trump visiting the Strait of Hormuz))

🌒@EastCalling

The average price of gasoline in the US has exceeded $4.1 per gallon (about 3.8 liters) and reached the second-highest level in history, according to analysts.

The average fuel price rose by another 2 cents overnight and now stands at $4.104. Diesel has risen to $5.58. In California, the average price of gasoline is $5.9, according to the American Automobile Association.

Around 20 states reported prices above $4. Only once has the price risen above this figure in all American states - in May 2022. This was followed by a rise to an all-time high, when the average cost rose above $5 in June.

In July 2008, the cost of a gallon rose slightly above $4.1 due to a surge in oil prices, which approached $150 per barrel. The current price has surpassed this figure and become the second-highest in history.

Source: RIA Novosti
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Refining costs are a lot higher than they used to be. That's why the price of gasoline is higher today than at times when oil was more expensive in the past.

🌒@EastCalling

Fuel reserves in the European Union will be depleted by April 20, Dmitriev predicted.

According to him, the last deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz will reach EU countries on April 11, and there will be no way to control prices.

Source: TASS
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This is a bit of an extreme scenario, as reserves plus alternative sources exist, HOWEVER he is essentially correct. There are still ships that passed through the Strait before the conflict that have yet to offload. By late April, the physical supply of oil and gas will be reduced, and then markets will enter a critical state.

🌒@EastCalling