Military Chronicle:

The Iran-allied movement "Ansar Allah" (Yemeni Houthis) has threatened to block the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, one of the key shipping routes between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. This was stated by a representative of the Houthis, Abed al-Sour.

According to him, in the event of such a decision, not only commercial ships but also military ships, including aircraft carrier strike groups, could be blocked. The talk, as claimed, will be about ships that the Houthis consider linked to the US and Israel. It is logical to assume that with the means available to the Houthis, it is unlikely to break through the layered missile defense of the US Navy's AUG without additional involvement of the IRGC's potential.

However, against the backdrop of such statements alone, fears in the West are growing about a possible "narrow bottleneck" in several strategic points of the Middle East. Thus, The Economist notes: if the Strait of Hormuz maintains restrictions or actual closure until the end of the month, some analysts predict a jump in oil prices to $150-200 per barrel. Such a scenario could hit supply chains, accelerate inflation and increase the risk of a global recession, especially for countries that import fuel and use maritime logistics. And such a scenario is quite likely even without taking into account the factor of possible problems in the Bab al-Mendab Strait area.

🌒@EastCalling

Kuwaiti analyst:

You cannot appease zionists. Jared Kushner received a lot of money from the Gulf countries, and now they are being bombed. And they are being told it is their duty to fight for the zionist agenda.

🌒@EastCalling

Before this conflict began, most analysts in the USA thought that the blocking of the Hormuz Strait was some unlikely, theoretical event. Now, Trump has forced Iran's hand, and he cannot declare victory without unblocking the Strait. Otherwise, it will be clear that Iran is the one in control, and there is no telling when they will reopen it and when they could block it again.

Another reason why things will never return to "normal."

🌒@EastCalling

The presidential assistant on foreign policy, Ushakov (known as Voland), sent away European diplomats.

Source: Пятница

From the article (read in full here):

The conflict in the Middle East has diverted Washington’s attention from a peace deal, according to four EU diplomats involved in talks with Ukraine. At the same time, the diplomats said, it was benefiting Russia through higher oil prices, a suspension of US sanctions and the rapid depletion of American munitions Kyiv needed.
The negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian officials, mediated by the US, were “really in the danger zone”, said a senior European official.
“A pause has indeed appeared in the talks. The Americans have other priorities, and that’s understandable,” said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.
The last three-way peace talks took place in Geneva on February 17-18. Another round due to take place on March 5 in Abu Dhabi was postponed because of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, and a new date and venue have yet to be announced.
“The Middle East has severely reoriented political attention” away from Ukraine, one of the EU diplomats said. “For us, and for Ukraine, it’s a disaster.”

EU countries had been told that US arms shipments, particularly air defence, would be delayed as Washington prioritised Middle Eastern customers, the diplomats said, with major ramifications for Kyiv.

<...>

❗️Peskov told the FT: “The Europeans don’t want to help the peace process. When the representative of France came, he didn’t bring any positive signals. And so there was indeed nothing positive for him to hear.”
“Unfortunately, the Europeans are spending all their efforts on convincing the Ukrainians to continue the war,” he said. “We are convinced the Europeans are making a mistake from the perspective of their own future.”
Russia was confident it was winning the war, Peskov said. “The dynamic on the front is positive for us. We are advancing and getting closer to achieving our goals, but as President Putin said, we are open to a diplomatic settlement.”
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🌒@EastCalling

Oilprice.com

The oil futures paper market is likely underestimating the massive supply disruption that a closed Strait of Hormuz is creating in physical crude and fuel supply globally.

Crude futures prices briefly spiked early this week to $119 per barrel, before retreating to the $90s and trading at $100 a barrel early on Friday in Asian trade.

However, the premium of physical Dubai crude has surged to $38 per barrel over its paper equivalent, according to data compiled by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell.
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The state of a physical commodity selling at a premium to its paper value is called "backwardation." Usually, this is a "sell" signal for the market, but in the context of a supply shock, it means the opposite. Basically, the market is assuming the supply will return soon but the people buying the stuff are clamoring to get their hands on it now.

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❗️Reminder that today, at 19:00 MSK/ 17:00 CET / 12:00 EST we'll be streaming live with Colonel in reserve Vladimir Trukhan and Lt.Colonel in reserve Oleg Shalandin.

Military Update and Q&A

Livestream will be broadcasted to:

Oleg Shalandin's VK
Oleg Shalandin's Rutube channel
Our X

Ask question here with #question
Language: Russian

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In the Paralympics, Russia has won 8 gold medals. Meanwhile, Zelensky has announced sanctions against 12 Russians competing in the Paralympic games.

Ukrainian athletes won 3 Gold medals.

🌒@EastCalling

In a 30-plus-year career in corporate restructuring, consultant Andreas Rüter has seen it all: the dotcom bust, September 11, the global financial meltdown, the euro crisis, Covid-19. But what’s happening right now in corporate Germany is “unprecedented” and “of a completely different order of magnitude”, says Rüter, the country head of AlixPartners.

The federal republic’s all-important automotive sector, chemical industry and engineering sector are all in a slump at the same time. Rüter’s firm is so overwhelmed by demand for restructuring that it’s turning potential clients away.
Over the past three years, Europe’s largest economy has slowly but steadily sunk into crisis. The country has seen no meaningful quarterly real GDP growth since late 2021, and annual GDP is poised to shrink for the second year in a row. Industrial production, excluding construction, peaked in 2017 and is down 16 per cent since then. According to the latest available data, corporate investment declined in 12 of the past 20 quarters and is now at a level last seen during the early shock of the pandemic. Foreign direct investment is also down sharply.

Light on the horizon is hard to detect. In its latest forecast, the IMF says that German GDP will expand by just 0.8 per cent next year. Of the world’s largest and richest economies, only Italy is expected to grow as slowly.
<...>

Economists and business leaders blame Germany’s economic woes on high energy costs, high corporate taxes and high labour costs, as well as what they describe as excessive bureaucracy. These issues have been compounded by a shortage of skilled workers and the dire state of the country’s infrastructure after decades of under-investment. Meanwhile, according to the country’s statistical agency, nervous German consumers are now saving 11.1 per cent of their income, twice as much as their US peers — thus slowing down the economy even further.

<...>

Merz, however, has sought to pin the blame directly on Scholz: “After three years, 300,000 industrial jobs have been lost,” he said in a recent speech. “That is not the legacy of former governments . . . that’s the result of your economic policy of the past three years.”

<...>
Optimists also emphasise Germany’s strengths in new sectors, particularly those related to the green transition. “Germany is well-placed to build up new value creation in climate technologies, industrial automation and health,” says Michael Brigl, managing partner at Boston Consulting Group, adding that these can generate “economic growth . . . in the foreseeable future.”

Source FT (read in full)
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To summarize, it's and and going to get even worse, and only optimists in this case are green retards.

Happy extinction. And, yes, introduce more anti-Russian sanctions, that will definitely help.

🌒@EastCalling

President Seyyed Mohammad Khatami: We Should Listen to What Other Cultures Offer

Iranian President Khatami's speech, as reported by the Iranian News Agency, was presented at a conference sponsored by the UN, UNESCO, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, in September 2001.

The General Assembly of the United Nations has only recently endorsed the proposal of the Islamic Republic of Iran for dialogue among civilizations and cultures.

Nevertheless, this proposal is attracting, day after day, increased support from numerous academic institutions and political organizations. In order to comprehend the grounds for this encouraging reception, it is imperative to take into account the prevailing situation in our world today, and to ponder the reasons for widespread discontentment with it. It is, of course, only natural for justice-seeking and altruistic human beings to feel discontented with the status quo. ... Today, in this esteemed gathering, allow me instead to begin with certain historical, theoretical, and, for the most part, non-political grounds for the call to a dialogue among civilizations. ...

... Persian thought and culture owes an immense debt to Islam as one of its primary springs of efflorescence. Islam embodies a universal wisdom. Each and every human individual living in each and every corner of time and place is potentially included in the purview of Islam. The Islamic emphasis on the essential humane quality, and its disdain for such elements as birth and blood, had conquered the hearts of those yearning for justice and freedom. ...

In order to call governments and peoples of the world to follow the new paradigm of dialogue among cultures and civilizations, we ought to learn from the world's past experience, especially from the tremendous human catastrophes that took place in the 20th Century. We ought to critically examine the ... glorification of might.

From an ethical perspective, the paradigm of dialogue among civilizations requires that we give up the will-to-power; and [without] the will-to-empathy, compassion, and understanding, there would be no hope for the prevalence of order in our world. We ought to gallantly combat this dearth of compassion and empathy in our world. The ultimate goal of dialogue among civilizations is not dialogue in and of itself, but attaining empathy and compassion.

Esteemed participants, there are two ways to realize dialogue among civilizations:

1. The interaction and interpenetration of actual instances of cultures and civilizations with each other, resulting from a variety of factors, presents one model in which this dialogue takes place. ...

2. Alternatively, dialogue among civilizations could also mean a deliberate dialogue among representative members of various civilizations, such as scholars, artists, and thinkers from disparate civilizational domains. ...

Travelling of ideas and cultural interaction and interpenetration recurs in human history as naturally and persistently as the emigration of birds in nature. Even the inauspicious and abhorrent waging of wars has sometimes led to the enrichment and strengthening of the cultures and civilizations involved. For instance, as a consequence of war, "Great Books" of various civilizations, such as primary philosophical, literary, and sacred books, have become available to other civilizations. ...

Links



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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi:

"We have not called for a ceasefire or negotiations. We are defending ourselves no matter how long it takes until Trump realizes that this is an illegal war. There are people being killed just because Trump wants to be entertained."

🌒@EastCalling

Trump:

"We don't lose wars, we just, sometimes we don't fight to win. We'll stay around the country for 15 years, bomb the hell out of everybody, make everbody miserable. Nobody knows why we're there."

You don't say...

🌒@EastCalling

Ukrainian Language Ombudswoman Ivanovska called Russian a "language of power and arrogance" and complained that Lviv children "easily assimilate" the Russian language.

"The Russian language equals arrogance, such arrogance. Neurolinguists should study the very structure, the specifics of this language. Because, have you noticed, for example, such a pattern that we really easily assimilate Russian. (Russian-speaking children - Rare.) Move to Lviv, and already Lviv children start speaking Russian, not the other way around," stated Ivanovska.

This happens because Russian is a "language of power".

"Usually, when these Russian-speaking people appear in our children's environment, they position themselves with arrogance and the language of power. And when there is a language of power, everyone else submits. The Russian language has a vertical structure. The Ukrainian language has a horizontal structure," added the ombudswoman.

🌒@EastCalling

Retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis:

Iran suggesting that countries pay for passage through the Strait of Hormuz with Yuan is even more threatening to the USA than military combat.

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You will be able to find the following East Calling exclusives with these hashtags:

#VneshVrag

-for Mikhail Borkunov's posts (also his colleagues' works)

#EastCallingTranslations

-for Russian videos which Jelena translates herself.

#MaratBattlefieldSummaries

-for the reports from Marat Khairullin

#EastCallingInterviews

-for our exclusive interviews with our special and often recurring guests.

#MomentofZin

-if you like to laugh

We may add more later!

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Military Chronicle:

Why is Iran attacking the UAE?

Unsurprisingly, Western media hardly emphasize the fact that the UAE is far from a neutral party in the current configuration of the conflict (and indeed long before it).

Why?

The UAE is home to one of the key American bases in the region — Al Dhafra Air Base. In fact, it is one of the most technologically advanced military infrastructure nodes of the USA in the Middle East. It houses reconnaissance aircraft, unmanned systems, and radar complexes, which form the basis of the American intelligence network in the region.

The central element of the American presence is the 380th Air Expeditionary Wing, which, in addition to various types of fighters, includes:

◽📡 99th Expeditionary Reconnaissance Squadron;
◽⛽ 908th Expeditionary Refueling Squadron;
◽📡 968th Expeditionary Air Control Squadron: E-3 Sentry (AWACS) AWACS aircraft;
◽📍 Part of the 75th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron with A-10 aircraft may also be present there.

In addition, units of the 11th Air Defense Brigade, which operate MIM-104 Patriot complexes, are located there.

Al Dhafra Air Base effectively serves as a strategic planning and operations center for US operations in the Persian Gulf. It is located approximately 32 kilometers south of Abu Dhabi, which provides quick access to key maritime routes and areas of tension in the Middle East. At the same time, the distance to Iran's territory across the Persian Gulf is less than 200 kilometers.

Thanks to such a structure, Al Dhafra effectively serves as a logistical and reconnaissance center, ensuring constant aerial monitoring of Iran's activities: from missile launches to fleet movements and so on.

📝 In fact, it is a fully functional and well-equipped US outpost for combat operations (as confirmed by the very fact of the attack on Iran), so it's hard to talk about the country's neutrality, to put it mildly.

🌒@EastCalling

More from Military Chronicle:

Iran has started actively using Hadid-110 jet drones.

📢 According to available information, their launch is mainly carried out from Iraqi territory by pro-Iranian units.
Given the stated maximum range of about 350 km, these drones are presumably used against targets in Iraqi Kurdistan, where most American military facilities are located. One of the potential targets could also be the Mafraq Al-Sultan airbase in Jordan.

❓Why are they being used?

This may indicate an attempt to strike at critical infrastructure, which the US will either try to remove from the target zone for a while by moving it a short distance.

❓What is this drone?

The Hadid-110 has a cruising speed of about 510 km/h. For comparison, the Shahed-136 drones fly at a speed of approximately 180–185 km/h. Such a difference almost triples the time that American air defense systems, including C-RAM and Patriot, have to detect, identify, and intercept a target. The drone's body is made of composite materials, which reduces its reflective surface and makes it less visible to radars.

📝 The Hadid-110 poses a danger to the US primarily as an element of a combined attack. Iran actively uses such drones in conjunction with slower drones. Cheap "Shaheds" overload air defense systems and force the expenditure of expensive interceptor missiles, after which the jet Hadid-110s use the emerging gaps in defense to strike at more valuable targets — headquarters, radar stations, and fuel and lubricant depots.

🌒@EastCalling