АДЕКВАТ Z on Trump and Iran:

🈁In one unfortunate week, Agent Donald managed to tear his pants twice in a row, loudly and embarrassingly. First with Greenland - he licked it all over, but didn't dare to swallow it, moreover, he had to declare publicly that he wasn't going to do it. New approaches to the issue, of course, are not excluded, but at the moment, there's an obvious and undeniable embarrassment. Then the capitulation in Minnesota, where the fun of anti-immigration thugs with two shootings in the streets had to be rolled back after well-organized mass protests, and on this basis, the ruler of the galaxy will now be devoured by those who sense his weakness.

As everyone has probably guessed, this was a prelude to the possibility of a confrontation with Iran at any moment. The worse things go for Trump in any direction, the greater the temptation to start an extremely risky game in pursuit of a victory that would overshadow any number of failures. I'm not saying he'll definitely embark on this adventure, but if he does, there's no point in just bombing - the electorate won't appreciate such an act of art for art's sake, and they're generally not thrilled with foreign adventures, which Trump always handles well. Therefore, if he's going to start something, it should be with decisive goals, which he first needs to declare and then achieve. Specifically on Iran, he's already declared such goals twice in half a year, and both times ended in a typical Trump-style fiasco.

What I'm saying is that if things do start spinning now, Iran will from the very beginning be obliged to view the threat as absolutely existential. Leading, in case of success, to de-sovereigntization, dismemberment, puppet scumbags at the helm as carrion worms, chaos, poverty, and an unimaginable amount of blood. And to counter the threat from the first minutes and hours, not in the hope of somehow settling things with a draw as in the previous scenario, but with a course towards unacceptable damage to each of the aggressors. In the clearest understanding that nothing else will stop the aggression.

Unacceptable damage specifically for Americans in this scenario, when even the most loyal fans will start devouring Trump alive in unison with the Democrats - this is very likely to result in hundreds of deaths and thousands of casualties guaranteed. There are many targets in the region for American bases, and it will be necessary for Iran to strive with all its might to take this price from them. At the same time, dispelling any possible illusions of the aggressor that achieving his declared goals can be done quickly - dragging out the war into a long and viscous one is dangerous for Agent Donald almost as much as sudden or near-similar large losses.

I don't guess whether Iran will succeed. A lot will depend on how the complex summer lessons are learned and how usefully the past six months have been spent. But in any case, the level of risk for Trump personally is very high, and if he still decides to go ahead, it's either not for the better, or from a completely exemplary even for him misunderstanding of what and with what force he can get into trouble here.
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Illustration: Geopolitics Prime

🌒@EastCalling

A court in Germany has granted Usmanov's lawsuit against the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, a representative of the businessman told TASS.

The court prohibited FAZ's statements that Usmanov allegedly used his wealth "in the interests or on behalf of the Kremlin", informally represented the interests of the Russian authorities in Uzbekistan, and interfered with the editorial policy of the Kommersant newspaper.

For each violation of the ban, the publication faces a fine of up to €250,000 or administrative arrest.

Source: TASS
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Looks pretty interesting, minding that it was a German court.

🌒@EastCalling

👊ICE agents tried to break into the Ecuadorian consulate in Minneapolis, but the staff blocked the entrance and resisted them. The country expressed an official diplomatic protest.

"The Ministry immediately sent a protest note to the US Embassy in Ecuador to ensure that such actions do not repeat themselves in any of the consular institutions," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.

According to international law, law enforcement officers are prohibited from entering foreign consulates or embassies without permission, except in emergency cases.

The footage shows a consulate employee rushing to the door, blocking the agents' path and saying: "You can't come in here". In response, the ICE officer threatens to "arrest" him if he comes closer.

"The consulate staff immediately prevented the ICE agent from entering the building, thereby ensuring the protection of the Ecuadorians present at the time and activating the emergency protocols issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Migration," the Ecuadorian Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted.

Source: Zvezda
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🌒@EastCalling

Zelensky is ready to destroy Ukraine rather than compromise, said American economist Jeffrey Sachs in an interview with TASS.

The expert was asked whether diplomatic efforts on Ukraine have a real chance of success, especially given the recently launched trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi.

Source: TASS
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Not his people, not his country, not his problem. Isn't it obvious?

🌒@EastCalling

‼️New article from our friends ExternalEnemy [ВнешнийВраг] already on our Substack.

As if the seizure of Venezuela’s resources was not enough, Trump’s team has now set its sights on Turkmenistan and its riches.

Apart from oil and gas, Ashgabat has significant reserves of ore and non-metallic minerals, the production centers of which are concentrated in several velayats: Akhall (limestone, clay), Lebab (sulfur, salt) and Balkan (iodine, bromine, gypsum, bentonite, iron).

In the current turbulent conditions Turkmenistan’s future depends on how efficiently, fairly and environmentally safely the authorities will be able to use these resources.

Read in full via link

🌒@EastCalling

France, together with its partners in the EU, is working on new sanctions against Russia, Macron stated:

"France intends to increase pressure on Russia as long as it continues to evade peace."

Source: TASS
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France can stop evading peace, this will solve the problem.

🌒@EastCalling

The EU plans to exempt key gas suppliers from additional checks amid the refusal to import from Russia. This is reported by Reuters, citing a draft document from the European Commission.

Source: TASS
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😏😏😏

🌒@EastCalling

A dialogue with the EU is only possible if sanctions are lifted and if Kiev stops receiving weapons. This was stated in an interview with TASS by the director of the European Affairs Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maslennikov.

Source: TASS
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🌒@EastCalling

The German Chancellor stated that Ukraine will not be able to join the European Union in 2027.

According to the Financial Times, the US, in the event of Ukraine's agreement to a peace deal, promises it not only security guarantees, but also membership in the EU by January 1, 2027.

Kiev is also making such a demand.

However, Merz stated that this is "excluded" and "impossible". He said this after a meeting of the coalition committee, according to DPA.

The Chancellor recalled that every candidate country must meet the Copenhagen criteria, and this process usually takes several years. A quick accession, in his assessment, is unrealistic.

At the same time, Merz noted that it is important for Ukraine to maintain the prospect of membership. "We can gradually bring Ukraine closer to the European Union. This is always possible, but such a quick accession simply cannot happen," he said.

🌒@EastCalling

Trump announced the approach of an American military group to Iran and warned that "time is running out."

US President Donald Trump stated that the US "Armada" is rapidly heading towards Iran and is ready to carry out its tasks. He also expressed hope that Iran will agree to negotiations and conclude a deal on its nuclear program, but warned that "time is running out."

🌒@EastCalling

Rubio states the fact that Ukraine's security entirely depends on the USA. The presence of a handful of European troops is meaningless, and the real guarantee is the US "backstop" in his opinion.

Of course, the US backstop is also meaningless. Any conflict between the USA and Russia will quickly become a nuclear situation, literally. What guarantees can the USA realistically offer in this scenario. They can only guarantee a grinding war of attrition where the Ukrainians die with the support of aid packages from Europe and "well-wishes" from the USA. The West cannot offer anything after the SMO above and beyond what they have given during the SMO.

🌒@Eastern

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, amid US claims to Greenland, promised to defend NATO's eastern flank against Russia.

"We need to cooperate within the framework of democratic rules. And the area in which we can cooperate is the protection of Europe from Russia. And what we can do together with the US is to stick together," she said in an interview with Tagesschau.

Frederiksen called her views "very transatlantic", partly because of the Americans. However, according to her, now is the time for "new beginnings", when Europeans, including the residents of Denmark and Greenland, will need to take responsibility for their own security and defense.

"For me, the most important thing is that we, Europeans, are now doing what is right to protect our population, our countries, our freedom and security. And this primarily means that we ourselves must be able to defend ourselves," noted the Danish prime minister.

In addition, she stressed that Denmark has a diplomatic channel with the US, within which the parties are trying to reach agreements on common security, including in the Arctic.

Source: Izvestia
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🤦🏻‍♀🤦🏻‍♀🤦🏻‍♀

🌒@EastCalling

🔥"Zemledeliye" ["Agriculture"] processed the fields in the Krasnoarmeysky direction - "smart" mines were launched at a range of up to 15 kilometers, blocking key routes of retreat and supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The mines, which are delivered by 122-mm reactive ammunition, are pre-programmed. They can be activated with a specified delay or self-destruct at a set time.

One salvo of a launcher designed for 50 ammunition units allows to mine an area of several hectares.

Source: Zvezda
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🌒@EastCalling

Porsche is closing 30% of its dealerships in China due to weak demand, without any sanctions. In just three years, the company's sales have dropped by 52%.

Source: Банкста
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🌒@EastCalling

Some background on air defense capabilities, Iran vs Venezuela:

Trump is drunk on the success of the raid that captured Maduro, but I will reiterate here that Venezuela had about a half a dozen (maybe) operating S300 batteries and a few dozen medium range systems (maybe 10 Buk defense systems and a few dozen old Pechora systems).

Iran tested its S400 systems that it recently received from Russia (back in 2024), for the first time, in July 2025, a month after the US bombed their nuclear sites. The S400 was not operational or integrated into Iranian defenses during the strike, but now it is likely fully in operation. Iran also has about a half dozen S300 batteries (give or take, as some were damaged during its conflict with Israel) along with more than a dozen homegrown Bavar systems and a few hundred S200s. For medium range systems, Iran has hundreds of "3rd Khordad," Khordad-15, and Mersad batteries. There are more medium and short range defense systems that I could mention here, including an unknown number of Chinese systems. Iran's systems are also battle tested and have been upgraded since 2025.

🌒@EastCalling