Russia is attacking on multiple fronts simultaneously, searching for weaknesses. This approach comes at a cost, but Russia is prepared to tolerate significant losses. There may not be as favorable conditions for success again after the Ukrainian mobilization

Despite ongoing attacks since October, Russia hasn't achieved deep breakthroughs. While some local defences have bent or fallen, there's been no widescale Ukrainian collapse. Russians likely presume that the attrition warfare will eventually bring more results.

This spring is about survival. Ukraine still faces existential threats, and various scenarios remain possible. Pessimism should guide policymakers, and especially all aid plans should align with worst-case scenarios. Crisis awareness should match that of early 2022.