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Gold prices fell more than 1% on Tuesday and were set for their biggest monthly decline since October 2008, as uncertainty in the Middle East gave way to expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes to tame elevated inflation.
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Bullion was also set for its first quarterly fall since 2024 and the largest since the June quarter of 2013, as the Iran war sent energy prices sharply higher, stoking inflation fears and bets for interest rate hikes.
"You have high inflation, high interest rate expectations, and a strong dollar, and that's overriding all other bullish factors that are typically associated with a gold rally," said Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex.
While gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation, it loses its appeal in a high-interest-rate environment.
Traders expect three Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, and are currently pricing in about a 64% chance of a September increase, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Investors are now awaiting the June ADP employment and nonfarm payroll data, both due this week, to further gauge the Fed's stance on rate hikes.
The U.S. dollar was headed for a second monthly gain, making bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Oil prices were on track for their sharpest quarterly decline since 2020 as investors eyed the outcome of Iranian and U.S. talks in Doha this week, even as Iran said no meeting had been scheduled.
Meir sees gold trading in the $3,500 to $4,400 range in the second half of the year.
"You have high inflation, high interest rate expectations, and a strong dollar, and that's overriding all other bullish factors that are typically associated with a gold rally," said Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex.
While gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation, it loses its appeal in a high-interest-rate environment.
Traders expect three Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, and are currently pricing in about a 64% chance of a September increase, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Investors are now awaiting the June ADP employment and nonfarm payroll data, both due this week, to further gauge the Fed's stance on rate hikes.
The U.S. dollar was headed for a second monthly gain, making bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Oil prices were on track for their sharpest quarterly decline since 2020 as investors eyed the outcome of Iranian and U.S. talks in Doha this week, even as Iran said no meeting had been scheduled.
Meir sees gold trading in the $3,500 to $4,400 range in the second half of the year.
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Gold falls over 1% as oil jumps after Trump says Iran peace deal 'over'
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π1
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The conflict between the United States and Iran has intensified significantly, with both sides exchanging fresh military strikes and tensions spreading across the Gulf region. As geopolitical uncertainty rises, expect increased volatility across Gold, Oil, the US Dollar, and global indices.
Stay disciplined. Respect your risk management. Wait for confirmation, follow your trading plan, and remember that capital preservation is just as important as capital growth during periods of heightened uncertainty.
Trade with knowledge, not emotion.
Stay disciplined. Respect your risk management. Wait for confirmation, follow your trading plan, and remember that capital preservation is just as important as capital growth during periods of heightened uncertainty.
Trade with knowledge, not emotion.
Forwarded from Dynamic - Trading Group π α΄ Ιͺα΄ (Dynamic Support)
Gold slides over 1% as oil surges on Strait of Hormuz closure fears
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#XAUUSD - Market outlook
Gold prices hovered around $4,050 per ounce on Friday, holding a nearly 2% decline from the previous session, as surging oil prices fueled by the escalating Middle East conflict strengthened the case for tighter US monetary policy.
President Donald Trump warned of expanded military action against Iran and vowed to hold Tehran accountable for any future Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, helping lift Brent crude above $100 a barrel for the first time since May.
Higher oil prices stoked inflation fears, boosting expectations of tighter Fed policy and pressuring non-yielding assets.
Markets currently assign a 34% probability to a Fed rate hike next week, while the odds of a September increase have climbed above 78%.
Meanwhile, fresh US tariffs of 10%β12.5% on imports from major trading partners added to the uncertain market backdrop.
Gold is still heading for a modest weekly gain.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RDQHxbDw/
Gold prices hovered around $4,050 per ounce on Friday, holding a nearly 2% decline from the previous session, as surging oil prices fueled by the escalating Middle East conflict strengthened the case for tighter US monetary policy.
President Donald Trump warned of expanded military action against Iran and vowed to hold Tehran accountable for any future Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, helping lift Brent crude above $100 a barrel for the first time since May.
Higher oil prices stoked inflation fears, boosting expectations of tighter Fed policy and pressuring non-yielding assets.
Markets currently assign a 34% probability to a Fed rate hike next week, while the odds of a September increase have climbed above 78%.
Meanwhile, fresh US tariffs of 10%β12.5% on imports from major trading partners added to the uncertain market backdrop.
Gold is still heading for a modest weekly gain.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RDQHxbDw/
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OANDA:XAUUSD Chart Image by DynamicCapital-FX
It is important to remember that not every trading day, week or month is suitable for trading. The market is not always trending and when it is not it indicates investor indecision. Therefore, it is crucial to be selective about the trades you take. This approach often leads to a more comfortable position in volatile markets.
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πΊπΈ US dollar has lost over 96% of its purchasing power since the Federal Reserve's creation in 1913.
Gold Rises as Oil Prices Drop
Gold climbed 1% toward $4,100 an ounce on Monday, moving away from nine-month lows as oil prices dropped sharply following a pause in hostilities between the US and Iran over the weekend, reducing concerns over supply disruptions and inflation.
The US suspended its nearly two-week campaign of strikes against Iran beginning late Friday without an official announcement, while Tehran said it had ended its retaliatory strikes in response and held discussions with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold struggled in recent weeks amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East, with supply disruption spreading from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday before raising them in September, although some market participants believe the central bank could move as early as this week's meeting in response to renewed inflationary pressures.
Gold climbed 1% toward $4,100 an ounce on Monday, moving away from nine-month lows as oil prices dropped sharply following a pause in hostilities between the US and Iran over the weekend, reducing concerns over supply disruptions and inflation.
The US suspended its nearly two-week campaign of strikes against Iran beginning late Friday without an official announcement, while Tehran said it had ended its retaliatory strikes in response and held discussions with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold struggled in recent weeks amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East, with supply disruption spreading from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday before raising them in September, although some market participants believe the central bank could move as early as this week's meeting in response to renewed inflationary pressures.
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