#XAGUSD - [Market outlook] Silver Falls on Stronger Dollar and Hawkish Fed

Silver fell below $65 per ounce on Friday, its lowest level since June 11, and was on track for a weekly loss of around 4.5% as a stronger US dollar and rising interest-rate expectations dampened demand for precious metals.

The dollar climbed to a one-year high after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged but struck a hawkish tone.

Nine of the Fed’s 19 policymakers now expect at least one rate hike later this year, while markets are pricing in roughly a 70% chance of an increase by September.

Higher-for-longer interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as silver while supporting the dollar.

Geopolitical uncertainty also remained elevated after Switzerland announced that planned US-Iran talks aimed at ending the Middle East conflict would not take place on Friday, clouding prospects for a lasting peace agreement.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/MxPx5sck/

Guys watching match tonight?

🇺🇸🇮🇷 TRUMP THREATENED IRAN WHILE VANCE WAS STILL AT THE NEGOTIATING TABLE

And Iran walked out.

One of the most extraordinary diplomatic moments of this entire conflict unfolded today in Switzerland.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance arrived at the Burgenstock Resort as representatives from the United States, Iran, Pakistan, and Qatar sat down together for a rare round of direct negotiations.

Vance described the talks as making “great progress.”

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif went even further, declaring:

“We are witnessing a great day that will lead to world peace.”

Then everything changed.

While Vance was still inside the negotiating room, President Trump posted on Truth Social:

“Iran must immediately stop their highly paid proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!”

Shortly afterward, Trump told Fox News:

“You close the Strait and you won’t have a country. You won’t even make it back to your country. We may take over the Strait. If they don’t make a deal, we’ll collect tolls.”

Iran’s delegation immediately filed a formal complaint with the mediators.

Then they walked out.

Iran’s chief negotiator responded on X:

“We don’t count on the threats of the Americans. Our armed forces are ready to respond in another way.”

At the same time, Iran’s President publicly reaffirmed:

“We will never back down from the right to enrich uranium.”

For Pakistan, the moment was especially dramatic.

Just minutes after Sharif praised Trump and celebrated the negotiations, the diplomatic breakthrough that had boosted Pakistan’s international standing appeared to be unraveling in real time.

Despite the confrontation, mediators worked behind the scenes to keep discussions alive.

Talks later resumed, and a joint statement from Pakistan and Qatar described the negotiations as “positive and constructive.”

The parties also agreed to establish a political oversight committee to continue the process.

The question now:

Was this a temporary disruption, or a sign that any future deal remains extremely fragile?

Gasoline prices better start GOING DOWN more than what I’m seeing — Trump

‘CUSTOMERS ARE BEING GOUGED’

What about Hormuz?

Gold Falls Toward $4,000 on Stronger Dollar, Rate-Hike Expectations

Gold prices tumbled, extending the previous session's losses as a stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates later this year weighed on investor sentiment.

In morning trading in New York, gold futures fell 2.5% to $4,045.90 a troy ounce. The greenback advanced against a basket of currencies today, which has the effect of making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for overseas buyers.

Other precious metals also declined.

#XAGUSD - Moving as how we expected +29,000 pips so far.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cU329SgU/

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BLOODBATH: 🇨🇳 Approximately $10.6 billion was wiped out from the Chinese stock market value today as the SSE Composite Index fell 2.26%.

This marks the largest daily decline in the past 3 months.

#China

Happy weekends everyone!

🚨 IRAN WAR — DAY 115. ⚔️

HERE ARE 5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW RIGHT NOW. 👇

1️⃣ AMERICA STRUCK IRAN AGAIN TODAY. WHILE PEACE TALKS ARE STILL ONGOING. 🇺🇸💥

Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire by launching four attack drones at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, one striking the upper deck of a large cargo vessel. 🚢💥

CENTCOM responded by striking Iranian missile and drone storage facilities and coastal radar stations inside Iran. 🚀📡

Iran initially declared its retaliation would be "swift and decisive" — then deleted the statement. 🗑️🤐

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2️⃣ ISRAEL AND LEBANON SIGNED A FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT IN WASHINGTON TODAY. 🇮🇱🤝🇱🇧

In a signing ceremony at the State Department, flanked by Israeli and Lebanese envoys, Secretary Rubio signed a trilateral framework agreement for "lasting peace and security" between Israel and Lebanon. 📜🏛️

Lebanese President Aoun called it "a first step" toward restoring full Lebanese sovereignty. 🇱🇧🔓

Rubio said: "It's the beginning of the beginning. There's a lot of work ahead." 🛠️🚧

Hezbollah — which controls southern Lebanon, immediately warned the deal would "thwart plans to resolve the broader conflict." 🛑⚠️

Israel simultaneously issued its first evacuation order in southern Lebanon. 🚨🏃‍♂️

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3️⃣ IRAN IS WARNING GULF STATES NOT TO SIDE WITH WASHINGTON. THREE TANKERS JUST TURNED BACK. 🛑🛢️

Iranian state media confirmed at least three foreign oil tankers attempting to cross Hormuz "without authorisation" turned back after Iranian warnings today. 🛑🌊

Iran simultaneously reasserted full authority over the strait — warning Gulf states against aligning with Washington over Hormuz governance. 🗣️🇮🇷

Iran and the U.S. have established a direct communication line in Hormuz to prevent accidental military confrontation. 📞🛡️

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4️⃣ 115 SHIPS AND 2,500 SAILORS HAVE NOW EVACUATED HORMUZ. 22,000 MORE STILL WAITING. 🚢🚫

The IMO confirmed 115 vessels carrying approximately 2,500 seafarers have safely evacuated the Strait of Hormuz in the last three and a half days. ✅🛡️

Progress — but the IMO paused evacuations again after yesterday's drone strike on a cargo vessel. ⏸️💥

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5️⃣ CSIS PUBLISHED ITS FINAL VERDICT ON THE DEAL. "THE U.S. GETS VERY LITTLE. ISRAEL GETS EVEN LESS." 📉📊

The Center for Strategic and International Studies published its final analysis today: 📝

"The full text of the framework agreement with Iran is lopsided.

Iran gets most of what it wants, up front — before negotiations on a final deal even start. The United States gets very little. Israel gets even less." 📉🇺🇸🇮🇱

CSIS senior analyst Jon Alterman added:

"Trump was right to end the Iran war, not because the U.S. won, but because the conflict exposed the limits of military power." 💭🛑

My thoughts: This war continues. There's no winner yet. ⚔️🔄

This is Day 115. 📅

Follow & turn on your notifications. 🔔👀