#DXY - Market outlook

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.12% on June 19 to close at 100.729 in late trading. According to ChainCatcher, the euro rose to $1.1477 from $1.1459 in the previous session, while the British pound increased to $1.3234 from $1.3203.

The dollar weakened against the Japanese yen, falling to 161.26 yen from 161.68 yen. It strengthened against the Swiss franc to 0.8066 from 0.8051 and against the Canadian dollar to 1.4174 from 1.414.

The dollar also declined versus the Swedish krona, trading at 9.5742 from 9.5874 in the prior session.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OzNctsQp/

#EURUSD - Market outlook

https://www.tradingview.com/x/e3PU4cm8/

#OIL - Market outlook
Crude oil prices were near $77 per barrel on Friday and were heading toward a weekly decline of roughly 8% after Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire agreement set to begin on Friday.

The truce, if maintained, could remove a major obstacle to broader peace efforts between the US and Iran.

Meanwhile, Tehran said vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz would require mandatory insurance policies, which are currently free but could incur charges later, reinforcing its claims over the strategic waterway.

Market data suggested shipping activity slowed after an earlier surge in tanker movements, with no outbound vessels seen leaving the Persian Gulf on Friday morning.

In contrast, nearly 10 million barrels of crude were observed transiting or positioned near the strait on Thursday, including the first Saudi-owned tankers to move since the conflict began more than three months ago.

Uncertainty continues after planned US-Iran talks in Switzerland were canceled.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/4KhBggz8/

#XAGUSD - [Market outlook] Silver Falls on Stronger Dollar and Hawkish Fed

Silver fell below $65 per ounce on Friday, its lowest level since June 11, and was on track for a weekly loss of around 4.5% as a stronger US dollar and rising interest-rate expectations dampened demand for precious metals.

The dollar climbed to a one-year high after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged but struck a hawkish tone.

Nine of the Fed’s 19 policymakers now expect at least one rate hike later this year, while markets are pricing in roughly a 70% chance of an increase by September.

Higher-for-longer interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as silver while supporting the dollar.

Geopolitical uncertainty also remained elevated after Switzerland announced that planned US-Iran talks aimed at ending the Middle East conflict would not take place on Friday, clouding prospects for a lasting peace agreement.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/MxPx5sck/

Guys watching match tonight?

🇺🇸🇮🇷 TRUMP THREATENED IRAN WHILE VANCE WAS STILL AT THE NEGOTIATING TABLE

And Iran walked out.

One of the most extraordinary diplomatic moments of this entire conflict unfolded today in Switzerland.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance arrived at the Burgenstock Resort as representatives from the United States, Iran, Pakistan, and Qatar sat down together for a rare round of direct negotiations.

Vance described the talks as making “great progress.”

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif went even further, declaring:

“We are witnessing a great day that will lead to world peace.”

Then everything changed.

While Vance was still inside the negotiating room, President Trump posted on Truth Social:

“Iran must immediately stop their highly paid proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!”

Shortly afterward, Trump told Fox News:

“You close the Strait and you won’t have a country. You won’t even make it back to your country. We may take over the Strait. If they don’t make a deal, we’ll collect tolls.”

Iran’s delegation immediately filed a formal complaint with the mediators.

Then they walked out.

Iran’s chief negotiator responded on X:

“We don’t count on the threats of the Americans. Our armed forces are ready to respond in another way.”

At the same time, Iran’s President publicly reaffirmed:

“We will never back down from the right to enrich uranium.”

For Pakistan, the moment was especially dramatic.

Just minutes after Sharif praised Trump and celebrated the negotiations, the diplomatic breakthrough that had boosted Pakistan’s international standing appeared to be unraveling in real time.

Despite the confrontation, mediators worked behind the scenes to keep discussions alive.

Talks later resumed, and a joint statement from Pakistan and Qatar described the negotiations as “positive and constructive.”

The parties also agreed to establish a political oversight committee to continue the process.

The question now:

Was this a temporary disruption, or a sign that any future deal remains extremely fragile?

Gasoline prices better start GOING DOWN more than what I’m seeing — Trump

‘CUSTOMERS ARE BEING GOUGED’

What about Hormuz?

Gold Falls Toward $4,000 on Stronger Dollar, Rate-Hike Expectations

Gold prices tumbled, extending the previous session's losses as a stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates later this year weighed on investor sentiment.

In morning trading in New York, gold futures fell 2.5% to $4,045.90 a troy ounce. The greenback advanced against a basket of currencies today, which has the effect of making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for overseas buyers.

Other precious metals also declined.

#XAGUSD - Moving as how we expected +29,000 pips so far.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cU329SgU/

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BLOODBATH: 🇨🇳 Approximately $10.6 billion was wiped out from the Chinese stock market value today as the SSE Composite Index fell 2.26%.

This marks the largest daily decline in the past 3 months.

#China

Happy weekends everyone!