Long note: the scale of the Iranian victory, US loss & the betrayal of Israel. #Geopolitics

𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗦
🇮🇷
• Full sovereignty over Hormuz
• keeps its nuclear, missile & drone programmes
• retains its right to master the entire nuclear fuel cycle, only existing stocks of enriched uranium to be down blended
• retains right to support sub-state actors- Hizbollah, Hamas, Houthis (HHH+)
• legal protection for Hizbollah & Houthis
• attack on HHH+ home bases will be considered a violation of terms.
• 100 billion unfrozen, 300 billion to be invested
• All sanctions (incl non-nuclear, terror related) to be lifted
• all above actions to be passed at UNSC removing any chance of unilateralism by the US (like Trump cancelling the nuclear deal)
• full recognition of Iran’s government & no interference in internal affairs
• full reintegration into the global order

🇺🇸
• blockade of Hormuz ends
• oil prices can recede & stabilise
• status quo ante 8 May 2018 (re:JCPOA)
• JCPOA had a 2031 sunset clause, when restrictions on enrichment would be lifted. The new deal does not have a sunset, the ban on enriched stockpiles is permanent
• Can disengage significant military forces from the gulf - permanently
• reduction in threat environment for gulf allies.

🇮🇱
• JCPOA had a 2031 sunset clause, when restrictions on enrichment would be lifted. The new deal does not have a sunset, the ban on enriched stockpiles is permanent
• oil prices reduce
• Given US abandonment of gulf allies, Israel’s position as a security provider to gulf states could possibly increase

𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗦
🇮🇷
• permanent loss of enriched stockpiles
• permanent commitment to not develop nukes

🇺🇸
• Iran free to resume full scale terrorism across region under the guise of resistance (implications of Bahrain & Iraq), but this time any retaliation will be seen as breach of the treaty
• significant loss of trust in both gulf & israel

🇮🇱
• catastrophic geopolitical disaster
• all gains of last 3 years nixed
• right to retaliate in Lebanon nixed
• all coercive tools against Iran - military, economic, proxy - nixed
• bound by US promise to not carry out military action against Iran
• if Iran retaliates, most probably, no US shield
• Iran can purse terrorism as a tool against israel + retains full rights to build/use ballistic missiles & drones.

US Ambassador to India and Special Envoy to South & Central Asia Sergio Gor meets UHM Amit Shah right after landing in New Delhi

We had a fruitful discussion on enhancing collaboration to combat terrorism, shield our people from narcotics and illicit drugs, secure our borders, and jointly bring criminals to justice in both nations. – US Ambassador

#Geopolitics

BRICS NSA meeting in New Delhi from 22-23 July #Geopolitics

The first indigenously constructed Air Cushion Vehicle (ACV), H-561, was inducted into service on 18 June 2026 at Chowgule & Company Private Limited, Goa.

The induction ceremony was held at the shipyard's Rassaim facility in the presence of senior officials of Bharatiya Tatrakshak and representatives from the shipbuilding industry.

(Source: Indian Coast Guard)

#aatmarnirbharbharat

🇺🇸🤝🇮🇷 Iran-US MoU is a net positive for India 🇮🇳

Energy: India could buy Iran #Oil with sanctions removed

Infra: Post War reconstruction process, possible contracts for Indian conglomerates

Connectivity: Chabahar re-engagement

Shipping: Hormuz situation eases

#Economy #Geopolitics