United States Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick arrives in Jodhpur. #ForeignAffairs

🇦🇫⚔️🇵🇰 Afghanistan announces it carried out airstrikes using drones at targeting military bases in Pakistan.
1. Faizabad in Islamabad.
2. Army cantonment in Nowshera
3. Military colonies in Jamrud and Abbottabad.

Pakistan has confirmed these drone strikes took place. #IndianSubcontinent

Its that time of the year again

Persons may wish to consider leaving Israel while commercial flights are available: US embassy in Israel #InternationalNews

India's GDP growth rate was 7.8% in the Q3 of Fiscal Year 2026 #Economy

Today's growth estimates and GDP base year revisions results summary

FY26 - 7.6 real and 8.6 nominal
FY25 - 7.1 (against 6.5%) and 9.7 (against 9.8)
FY24 - 7.2 (against 9.2) and 11 (against 12)

- As for base year revisions, many expected nominal GDP to expand but it shrunk by around Rs 12 lac cr in FY26 estimates

- Earlier Nominal GDP was expected to be Rs 357 lac cr in FY26, now estimated at Rs 345.47 lac cr... this is close to 3.3% fall in size... Little bit surprised but not shocked

- In $ terms, this is close to $3.9+ trn, marginally below $4 trn, unless of course Q3 and Q4 of FY26 do better than expected in May provisional estimates, which can happen

- We will surpass Japan 2 years late in FY28 and Germany by 4 years in FY30, instead of FY27 and FY29... unless of course there is change in dollar strength against respective currencies and also Japan and Germany grow slower than expected... and will cross $5 trn by early FY29

What these numbers mean effectively?

- When seen with above growth numbers, it means that while there has been positive recovery trend growth of over 7% consistently, extent of recovery has been somewhat lower than estimated earlier

- Shrunken size of nominal GDP also means that stress on both Centre and State budgeting as it puts stress on metrics like Debt/GDP and fiscal deficit... so this means even lesser room for freebies

- This is in a way good as coming clean on all the data with more robust indicators means that the state of the economy is very clean and now everyone knows the what to spend, where to spend and how to spend... This is a bit like how govt came clean on budget numbers, especially off budget borrowings, since FY21 budget

- Now all data metrics across economic departments are clean and transparent... now anyone dare to accuse govt of data fraud, fudging or manipulation... with 2027 Census, this data will be clean even on socio-economic parameters

- coming 360 degrees clean on all data metrics — from budgeting to economic metrics to socio-economic metrics — in itself is a big reform, which previous govts didn't do

- Post pandemic, while real growth for almost all years seem to be estimated well except FY24 when it was overestimated way high

- also deflator seem to be persistently lower than estimated since the pandemic; inflation was overestimated... this also means while Indian growth has been fine, it has been tracking consistently below potential... indicating slack in the economy

- when seen in combination with new CPI series data, economy has formalised a lot... and the size of informal economy was overestimated in the old series

- This also means RBI monetary policy didn't reflect the increasing formalisation of the economy, thereby, causing expensive credit costs and slack in the formal economy

- RBI needs to cut more 50 bps rates like yesterday looking at the economic slack in this data

Compared to old series, in the new series:

- The share of Primary Sector expanded as Agri, livestock, forestry and fishing expanded by 6.9% in FY23, 4.9% in FY24 and 3.8% in FY25, and mining and quarrying shrunk by 0.9% in FY23, expanded by 1.1% in FY24 and 5.9% in FY25... this doesn't mean informal economy expanded... a lot of agri et al is formal now

- In the tertiary sector, Financial services, Real estate, Ownership of dwelling & Professional services expanded by 7.5% in FY23, 6.9% in FY24 and 9.7% in FY25

- Rest all industries in both secondary and tertiary sector shrunk significantly compared to Old series, which you can see in the picture below

- Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) did worse than expected as it shrunk relative to old series in FY23, FY24 and FY25, indicating poor demand and major slack

- Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) did better than expected as their share expanded... GFCE expanded in FY23, shrunk in FY24 marginally and expanded in FY25... GFCF expanded in FY23, FY24 and FY25 relative to old series

🔗 Aditya Jakki

Read the whole thing ☝️

Worrisome data about Indian #Economy.

Atleast we are certain that data is accurate.

Four lines summary of today's GDP data with 1 bad news and 3 good news:

Bad news: We overestimated our post-pandemic recovery till FY24. Our GDP will probably be below $4 trillion this year.

Good news 1: We are doing well and in line with estimates since FY25, and momentum is likely to continue into FY27

Good news 2: While economic momentum is real, it is well below real potential, reflected in low inflation... we can grow more without overheating the economy

Good news 3: Manufacturing has been doing well consistently over the last 3 FYs... New deregulatory reforms, upcoming discom reforms, ongoing infra work and with several FTA implementations, it is likely to well going forward

🔗 Aditya Jakki #Economy

Indonesia is halting an order for 105,000 trucks from India’s Tata Motors Ltd. and Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. following pushback from policymakers (backed by Chinese forces ofc) #Exports #Geopolitics

https://t.co/sMlxmQInTg

⚠️ China urges its citizens to leave Iran immediately. #InternationalNews

NOMINAL GDP IN AGGREGATE NUMBERS (Rs lakh crore)

Fiscal Year Old Revised
FY26 357.4 345.47
FY25 330.6 318.07
FY24 301.23 289.83
FY23 268.9 261.17

#Economy

India orders more Polish #drones.

https://t.co/6xQlBtm1AP

The UK says British diplomatic staff have been temporarily withdrawn from its embassy in Tehran, Iran. #InternationalNews #Geopolitics

🇺🇸🇮🇱⚡🇮🇷 #InternationalNews #Geopolitics

Mauritius suspends all diplomatic ties with Maldives on Chagos Island issue #InternationalNews

China, Canada, France, UK and Germany advises its citizens to not to travel to Iran and Israel #InternationalNews

🇦🇫⚔️🇵🇰 Afghani BM-21 "Grad"122mm multiple rocket launcher (MRL) in action against Pak army on Durand line.