AI's response when you ask AI to organize the network of Effective Altruists and AI safetyists

Also: EA insular gate-keeping is a feature, not a bug. The network/money between companies and nonprofits and policy is so circular, and their ethics likewise loose. I strongly suspect that Sam Bankman-Fried is the rule, not the exception.

🇺🇸🗳️ 23-Sept North Carolina Early Voting Update: The First Tea Leaves 🗳️

The DataRepublican North Carolina map is LIVE and is updating on a daily cron job.

Before any numbers: In 2022, Democrats led mail returns by 55 points at this stage and by 41 at the end, and Republicans went on to win the state's statewide races that year. So my analysis judges 2026 against the same point in 2022.

Shift from the same point in 2022 (42 days out):

🔴 R share of mail: −1.8
🔵 D share of mail: −4.9
🟡 I share of mail: +6.7

Raw D–R margin: 🔴+3.1 shift toward Republicans
With independents split by each county's R/D mail split: 🔵+1.3

Democrats are losing share faster than Republicans, and independents are taking it. The reason I still forecast an overall Democratic shift is because I assume those independents break the way their county's mail does, and so far they are breaking Democratic. In 2024, independents broke Republican. That is a big flag to watch here.

Military and overseas ballots, sent by email, are 29% of returns this year, compared with 8% in 2022, and they run about D+47 (unchanged). Without them:

🔴 Domestic D–R margin: 🔴+7.4 shift toward Republicans (D+29.8, against D+37.2 in 2022)
🔴 Urban domestic mail (the 7 biggest metro counties): 🔴+6.3 (D+56.8, against D+63.1)
⚪ White domestic mail: roughly flat (D+35.1, against D+34.6)

Raw counts so far (2022 same point in brackets):

🔴 R : 1,120 [1,501]
🔵 D : 3,971 [5,186]
🟡 I : 3,078 [3,011]

🟡 I leaning 🔴 R: 659
🟡 I leaning 🔵 D: 2,419

Caveats:
- Tiny sample. 8,169 ballots in a state that cast about 3.8M in the last midterm.
- 2022 is the best available comparison, but it still had COVID-era mail habits. That baseline is inflated for Democrats.
- 2024 can't be compared yet. NC mailed its civilian ballots 18 days late that year, after reprinting them to take RFK Jr. off, so almost everything back by this point in 2024 was military and overseas.
- NC has no permanent mail list, so every civilian ballot here was requested for this election. Early returners are mostly habitual mail voters: 58% are 65 or older.
- The overseas surge makes Democrats look better statewide than they are on domestic mail. Which picture holds depends on what the civilian returns do over the next few weeks.

This doesn't rule out a Democratic wave. It also doesn't show one. The real signal starts when in-person early voting opens in mid-October.

Website link below: 👇

Instead, all the AI safety "experts" are defending OpenAI's obvious incompetence. The top guy is out there throwing up his hands and saying it's useless.

This is a clear example of how incentive structures drive disaster

If AI safety were a legitimate field, it'd address how frontier companies are incentivizing their own failures.

We’re on a road trip, and my 12 year old son brought his Bible.

I asked him if he read it everyday. He looked at me funny, like I’d asked if water was wet, and said “yes!”

He then proceeded to tell me he reads a chapter in the Old Testament and New Testament everyday. He’s finished 6 books so far.

This is a child who once asked us “who’s Jesus?” when he was 4 years old, because we weren’t saved then.

God works miracles.

This is what serious technical leadership looks like.

No NGOs were needed. No multilateral coalition governing companies. Companies can take responsibility for their own actions.

Thank you NVIDIA for showing what true AI safety should look like.

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