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According to CF Benchmarks, Bitcoin is currently diverging сильно from global M2 trends.
Since mid-2025:
• Global M2 money supply +12%
• BTC price −35%
Historically, Bitcoin has shown strong correlation with M2 — liquidity expansion often leads to price growth.
Based on this model, BTC’s “fair value” is estimated around $136K, while it trades near ~$70K.
So why the gap?
Analysts point to tight monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. High interest rates limit capital flow into risk assets, making BTC more sensitive to macro conditions than money supply growth.
Similar divergence is also seen vs rising US national debt (> $39T), which historically moved in line with BTC.
Such gaps between liquidity and BTC have happened before — and were usually temporary
@Cryptoz
According to CF Benchmarks, Bitcoin is currently diverging сильно from global M2 trends.
Since mid-2025:
• Global M2 money supply +12%
• BTC price −35%
Historically, Bitcoin has shown strong correlation with M2 — liquidity expansion often leads to price growth.
Based on this model, BTC’s “fair value” is estimated around $136K, while it trades near ~$70K.
So why the gap?
Analysts point to tight monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. High interest rates limit capital flow into risk assets, making BTC more sensitive to macro conditions than money supply growth.
Similar divergence is also seen vs rising US national debt (> $39T), which historically moved in line with BTC.
Such gaps between liquidity and BTC have happened before — and were usually temporary
@Cryptoz
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#mining
❌ Checkonchain: The estimated cost to mine 1 BTC has risen to about $88,000. With a market price around $69,200, this means a gap of nearly $19,000 per coin.
This isn’t about the literal “cost for each miner.” The Difficulty Regression Model is an industry-wide all-in estimate, where network difficulty acts as a proxy for hardware, CAPEX, electricity, and overall network competition. In other words, the most efficient operators can have a much better economics than average, while older, more expensive fleets fare significantly worse.
@Cryptoz
❌ Checkonchain: The estimated cost to mine 1 BTC has risen to about $88,000. With a market price around $69,200, this means a gap of nearly $19,000 per coin.
This isn’t about the literal “cost for each miner.” The Difficulty Regression Model is an industry-wide all-in estimate, where network difficulty acts as a proxy for hardware, CAPEX, electricity, and overall network competition. In other words, the most efficient operators can have a much better economics than average, while older, more expensive fleets fare significantly worse.
@Cryptoz
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#rwa
The US hearing on tokenization is a historic f*cking deal!
On March 25, 2026, the US House of Representatives held a 5-hour hearing on RWA, which will likely go down in history as one of the key moments of institutional recognition of blockchain in the US.
Transcript: in Russian
@web3ru
@Cryptoz
The US hearing on tokenization is a historic f*cking deal!
On March 25, 2026, the US House of Representatives held a 5-hour hearing on RWA, which will likely go down in history as one of the key moments of institutional recognition of blockchain in the US.
Transcript: in Russian
@web3ru
@Cryptoz
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🤑 The Fed's balance sheet increased by $18,183,000,000 in just one week!
▪️Market expectations (Fed rate):
- PAUSE until December 2027.
▪️Miran, Fed Chair:
- Rising oil prices do not yet affect inflation expectations.
- I allow for a 1 percentage point rate cut over the year.
- I support reducing the Fed’s balance sheet, but gradually.
▪️Schmidt, Fed Chair:
- Inflation remains the main risk, possibly around 3%.
- The rise in oil prices can’t be considered a temporary factor.
- More expensive energy could also push core inflation.
▪️Musalem, Fed Chair:
- The war has increased risks to inflation and the economy.
- Base scenario – holding the rate for some time.
@Cryptoz
▪️Market expectations (Fed rate):
- PAUSE until December 2027.
▪️Miran, Fed Chair:
- Rising oil prices do not yet affect inflation expectations.
- I allow for a 1 percentage point rate cut over the year.
- I support reducing the Fed’s balance sheet, but gradually.
▪️Schmidt, Fed Chair:
- Inflation remains the main risk, possibly around 3%.
- The rise in oil prices can’t be considered a temporary factor.
- More expensive energy could also push core inflation.
▪️Musalem, Fed Chair:
- The war has increased risks to inflation and the economy.
- Base scenario – holding the rate for some time.
@Cryptoz
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Since April 11, it’s closed “YES” every single day.
The guy in the Oval Office physically can’t go 24 hours without talking shit about someone
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April 15: he bets on 22°C (forecast was 18°C), shows up with a hair dryer — and heats the sensor to the target.
Smart contract closes in his favor — +$34K profit.
Now the sensor is guarded, and Polymarket uses multiple data sources.
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They’ve launched MDK — an open framework to manage everything from a single ASIC to full-scale farms in one dashboard.
Mining is no longer “plug and pray” — it’s becoming a smart system.
Tether isn’t just printing stablecoins anymore… they’re moving into Bitcoin infrastructure.
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The billionaire believes that AGI (artificial intelligence superior to humans) could emerge as early as next year and warns of the risk of losing control – such systems can act unpredictably and not align with human interests, especially if they become concentrated in the hands of a single entity.
Elon Musk recalled that OpenAI was initially created as a non-profit organization and raised approximately $44 million in donations to develop safe AI technologies, but over time, Sam Altman transformed it into a commercial project with a valuation in the hundreds of billions of $$$.
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People are increasingly less interested in guessing at coins and more interested in trading specific events. Elections, Fed rates, wars.
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