Cryptoz
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#onchain
🎯RSI indicator indicates that Bitcoin is oversold (minimum value since August 2023). – Matrixport

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#opinion
🤔 JPMorgan: Payments from Mt․Gox will provoke pressure from sellers only at the initial stage (in July) - in August the crypto markets will recover.

Mt․Gox customers will receive 142,000 BTC ($8.6 billion) between July and October 2024.

+ Payouts from FTX could become a growth driver for crypto markets - clients will get back $11 billion in fiat, which they will potentially reinvest in cryptocurrency in October/November.

Earlier, JPMorgan analysts questioned the influx of capital into spot Bitcoin ETFs - of the $16 billion in net inflows this year, most of the funds likely came from existing wallets on exchanges. (not new money/investors)

The asset rotation is confirmed by the reduction in BTC reserves on the CEX.

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#hacking #scam
🏴‍☠️Hackers and scammers stole $572,688,861 worth of cryptocurrencies in the second quarter of 2024. – Immunefi

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🇺🇸 US macro data:

▪️ GDP (q/q) (Q1)

FACT: 1.4%
FORECAST: 1.3%
PREV: 3.4%

▪️ GDP deflator (q/q) (Q1)

FACT: 3.1%
FORECAST: 3.1%
PREV: 1.7%

▪️ Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits

FACT: 233K
FORECAST: 236K
PREV: 239K

▪️ Basic Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May)

FACT: -0.1%
FORECAST: 0.2%
PREV: 0.4%

▪️ Volume of orders for durable goods (MoM) (May)

FACT: 0.1%
FORECAST: -0.5%
PREV: 0.2%

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💸 8050 BTC ($518 million) were transferred from the Genesis Trading wallet to the Coinbase exchange over the past two weeks.

Today 1000 BTC ($61 million) were added to the exchange.

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⚡️#MANTA Stablecoin wUSDM from Manta Network is now backed by shares of BUIDL (BlackRock fund).

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🇺🇸 US authorities missed out on profits of $11,600,000,000+...

Since 2014, the US government has sold 195,091 BTC for $366,493,104 - today 195,091 BTC is worth more than $12,000,000,000.

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#opinion #sol
🚀 The value of SOL could increase almost 9 times if the SEC approves the Solana ETF.

Founder of DWF Labs: “Whether the Solana ETF is approved this year or next, everyone has a clear vision for its future. New high Solana = $280 and Ethereum ETF is on the way.”

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🤔 Some FTX customers are being refused refunds.

One of the clients was denied compensation because... there is less money in the bank account than there was on the stock exchange.

The user must prove that he has officially earned or holds in his bank account (or other assets) an amount comparable to the balance in the FTX application.

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#onchain
📉The number of active addresses in BTC is at least since 2018.

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🔞 FAIL: Someone paid a fee of 49 ETH ($171,263) for one transaction!

UPD: Operator of the MEV bot “jaredfromsubway”.

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🇺🇸 US macro data (PCE):

▪️ Basic price index of personal consumption expenditures (YoY) (May)

FACT: 2.6%
FORECAST: 2.6%
PREV: 2.8%

▪️ Basic price index of personal consumption expenditures (MoM) (May)

FACT: 0.1%
FORECAST: 0.1%
PREV: 0.3%

▪️ Price index of personal consumption expenditures (y/y) (May)

FACT: 2.6%
FORECAST: 2.6%
PREV: 2.7%

▪️Personal consumption expenditure price index (MoM) (May)

FACT: 0.0%
FORECAST: 0.0%
PREV: 0.3%

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🇺🇸 After the debate with Joe Biden, the chances of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election increased to 64%. (based on rates on Polymarket)

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⛔️ #ETH SEC sued Consensys.

Consensys is accused of “unregistered securities sales” in the MetaMask wallet (Ethereum staking).

+ “As an unregistered broker, the company collected $250,000,000+ in commissions.”

ConsenSys is an Ethereum developer and the parent company of MetaMask.

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🔥 #SOL 21Shares Fund has applied to launch a spot Solana ETF. (document)

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🇺🇸 The US Supreme Court helps the crypto industry.

▫️The US Supreme Court struck down the Chevron doctrine, limiting the powers of federal agencies (such as the SEC).

▫️Chevron gave regulators leeway to interpret the laws they were charged with enforcing—i.e. allowed its rules to be adopted until Congress passed a new law.

❕It will become more difficult for the SEC to take enforcement action against crypto companies due to the almost complete lack of legal and regulatory clarity in the crypto industry.

FOX: “This is a huge win for the crypto industry and other industries.”

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💸 The Fed's balance sheet fell by $21.37 billion in one week.

▪️Bostic, Fed Chairman:
– I think the Fed will cut interest rates once this year and four times in 2025.

▪️Daley, Fed Chairman:
- Good US macro data (PCE) came out today, but for now the Fed needs to continue the fight against inflation.

▪️Bowman, Fed Chairman:
- I am still not ready to support a Fed rate cut as inflation pressure remains elevated.

▪️IMF:
- The Fed should wait to ease monetary policy until the end of 2024.
- We predict one Fed rate cut this year.

📌 Market expectations (#Fed rate):
- July 31: Pause.
- September 18: decrease by 25 bp. up to 5.00-5.25%.
- November 7: Pause.
- December 18: decrease by 25 bp. up to 4.75-5.00%.

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🔥BTC is now trading well below the average “breakeven” of short-term holders (historically bullish).

Long-term holders' average breakeven is still a long way off.

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⚡️Bitcoin and Ethereum are the most profitable assets for the first half of 2024! - Matrixport

- Bitcoin and Ethereum have surpassed Nasdaq, S&P 500, oil, gold, USD, government bonds, etc. in profitability.

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#calendar
⚡️ Calendar of key events for this week:

Monday 1 July:
🇭🇰Hong Kong - no trading
🇨🇦Canada - no bidding
🇺🇸USA - Manufacturing PMI (June)
🇺🇸USA - ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)

Tuesday 2 July:
🇪🇺EU - CPI consumer inflation (June)
🔥USA - Speech by J. Powell
🔥USA - Number of open vacancies on the JOLTS labor market (May)

Wednesday 3 July:
🇺🇸USA - Nonfarm Payrolls from ADP (June)
🇺🇸USA - Initial Jobless Claims
🇺🇸USA - Services/Composite PMI (June)
🇺🇸USA - ISM Services PMI (June)
🇺🇸Minutes from the last Fed meeting

Thursday 4 July:
🇺🇸USA - no trading - Independence Day

Friday 5 July:
🔥USA - Nonfarm Payrolls (June)
🇺🇸USA - Lv. unemployment (June)

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#finflows
📊 Coinshares: Report on cryptocurrency financial flows.

▫️Capital outflow from the crypto industry in a week = $30,000,000.

▫️Inflow of capital into crypto products related to #BTC = $10,000,000.

🩸Capital outflow from #ETH-related crypto products = $60,700,000.

▫️Last week there was a slight influx of capital into crypto products related to #SOL, #LTC, #LINK and #XRP.

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