Historically, every bear market has ended with a crossover of the Realized Price for long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) holders.
The only exception was the COVID-dump. So far, such a crossover has not yet occurred.
And if it doesn’t happen, we will see, for the first time, a transition from a bear cycle to a bull cycle without a crossover of the LTH and STH Realized Prices.
The only exception was the COVID-dump. So far, such a crossover has not yet occurred.
And if it doesn’t happen, we will see, for the first time, a transition from a bear cycle to a bull cycle without a crossover of the LTH and STH Realized Prices.
SHORT #HYPE/USDT
⭐️Leverage: Cross 10X50
✔️Entry: 82.745
🆓TP: 81.500 - 80.000 -
78.000 - 75.000
❌SL: 92.000
⭐️Leverage: Cross 10X50
✔️Entry: 82.745
🆓TP: 81.500 - 80.000 -
78.000 - 75.000
❌SL: 92.000
Stop looking at macro through the lens of “rate cut = BTC up.”
Lower rates can be bullish for $BTC, but the rate itself is not the main variable.
The usual logic is simple:
Rates ↓ → money gets cheaper → financial conditions ease → liquidity rises → capital moves into risk assets → BTC rises.
The problem is that it doesn't always work this way.
The Fed may cut rates because the economy is weakening. At the same time, QT can continue, banks can tighten lending, M2 can stagnate, and investors can reduce risk exposure.
In that scenario: rates ↓ + liquidity ↓ → BTC falls.
And the opposite is also possible. BTC can rally with high inflation and high rates if liquidity in the financial system is expanding.
Previous cycles show this clearly. The biggest BTC bull moves generally came alongside major injections of liquidity through QE, fiscal stimulus, M2 expansion, and credit growth.
The current market is another good example. BTC's move this week wasn't just about rate expectations. Markets have also been pricing in Treasury buybacks, a weaker DXY, the CLARITY Act, and stronger demand for hard assets amid inflation and massive government debt.
So instead of watching one number, watch the whole system: M2, DXY, yields, QT/QE, the Fed balance sheet, government spending, deficits, credit conditions, and the broader news environment.
The interest rate is just one part of the picture — not a simple “BTC up” or “BTC down” button.
Lower rates can be bullish for $BTC, but the rate itself is not the main variable.
The usual logic is simple:
Rates ↓ → money gets cheaper → financial conditions ease → liquidity rises → capital moves into risk assets → BTC rises.
The problem is that it doesn't always work this way.
The Fed may cut rates because the economy is weakening. At the same time, QT can continue, banks can tighten lending, M2 can stagnate, and investors can reduce risk exposure.
In that scenario: rates ↓ + liquidity ↓ → BTC falls.
And the opposite is also possible. BTC can rally with high inflation and high rates if liquidity in the financial system is expanding.
Previous cycles show this clearly. The biggest BTC bull moves generally came alongside major injections of liquidity through QE, fiscal stimulus, M2 expansion, and credit growth.
The current market is another good example. BTC's move this week wasn't just about rate expectations. Markets have also been pricing in Treasury buybacks, a weaker DXY, the CLARITY Act, and stronger demand for hard assets amid inflation and massive government debt.
So instead of watching one number, watch the whole system: M2, DXY, yields, QT/QE, the Fed balance sheet, government spending, deficits, credit conditions, and the broader news environment.
The interest rate is just one part of the picture — not a simple “BTC up” or “BTC down” button.
The arbitrage is coming to an end, so I want to share some feedback and results from people who participated today.
Sometimes other people’s experience says more than another long explanation.
Take a look at the screenshots below and draw your own conclusions.
Sometimes other people’s experience says more than another long explanation.
Take a look at the screenshots below and draw your own conclusions.
Trade: #AVNT/USDT
Direction: 📈 LONG
🟢 Entry Range: 0.1051 - 0.1030
❌ StopLoss: 0.1000
• Target 1: 0.1061
• Target 2: 0.1071
• Target 3: 0.1082
• Target 4: 0.1092
• Target 5: 0.1103
• Target 6: 0.1114
💠 Leverage : 5x - 10x - 20x
Direction: 📈 LONG
🟢 Entry Range: 0.1051 - 0.1030
❌ StopLoss: 0.1000
• Target 1: 0.1061
• Target 2: 0.1071
• Target 3: 0.1082
• Target 4: 0.1092
• Target 5: 0.1103
• Target 6: 0.1114
💠 Leverage : 5x - 10x - 20x