1064 days of growth, 364 days of decline.
Every cycle has lasted exactly the same:
From the 2015 bottom to the December 2017 peak, 1064 days passed, followed by a 364-day bear market into the December 2018 bottom.
Then another 1064 days to the November 2021 peak, followed by 364 days down to the November 2022 bottom.
Bitcoin set its latest ATH on October 6, 2025 — exactly 1064 days after the November 2022 bottom.
If this pattern remains intact, the end of the bear market and the next bottom should fall on October 5.
Getting ready to buy.
Every cycle has lasted exactly the same:
From the 2015 bottom to the December 2017 peak, 1064 days passed, followed by a 364-day bear market into the December 2018 bottom.
Then another 1064 days to the November 2021 peak, followed by 364 days down to the November 2022 bottom.
Bitcoin set its latest ATH on October 6, 2025 — exactly 1064 days after the November 2022 bottom.
If this pattern remains intact, the end of the bear market and the next bottom should fall on October 5.
Getting ready to buy.
👀 My BTC Outlook for the Next 2–3 Months
In July, we came close but ultimately failed to reclaim June’s high ($67.3k).
It would make sense to absorb that liquidity first, and only then move lower
(This isn’t a certainty, but it’s entirely possible).
It would also be good to test the 21-Week EMA again
$58k isn’t the bottom!
The final wave of this bear market’s decline is still ahead
In July, we came close but ultimately failed to reclaim June’s high ($67.3k).
It would make sense to absorb that liquidity first, and only then move lower
(This isn’t a certainty, but it’s entirely possible).
It would also be good to test the 21-Week EMA again
$58k isn’t the bottom!
The final wave of this bear market’s decline is still ahead
👀 A whale opened a long position on ASTER with 4x leverage worth $4.3 million, plus locked up another $2.42 million worth of tokens for 4 years.
An interesting move—worth keeping an eye on. Especially since Aster plans to add a HIP-3-like feature on Hyperliquid for stock trading, and that’s where most of the trading volume is currently concentrated.
Plus, Binance itself has been actively building up TradeFi in recent weeks. It’ll be interesting to see if the ASTER token makes a move against this backdrop or not.
An interesting move—worth keeping an eye on. Especially since Aster plans to add a HIP-3-like feature on Hyperliquid for stock trading, and that’s where most of the trading volume is currently concentrated.
Plus, Binance itself has been actively building up TradeFi in recent weeks. It’ll be interesting to see if the ASTER token makes a move against this backdrop or not.
👍 Soon, even millionaires won’t be able to afford 1 BTC
No market review today—the situation remains the same as yesterday. So, let’s do a little math.
As of today, 20.07 million BTC have been mined—95.6% of the total supply. Only 4.4% remains, which will be mined by the year 2140.
But the actual amount of BTC in circulation is even smaller:
16.7% of coins are considered lost forever, and 5.2% are in Satoshi’s wallets—meaning ~22% of the supply can effectively be ruled out. In reality, about 75% of all BTC is actually available.
And the available supply will continue to decline: look at how much BTC large companies and funds are snapping up, and another portion will be lost or burned.
And finally, the most interesting part—a comparison with M2 (global money supply), which is constantly growing: the economy and inflation are structured in such a way that there is always more money in the world.
The rest is simple: BTC issuance is limited, the money supply is growing → part of it flows into BTC → the price rises. No cycles, bull markets, or other factors. Just math.
And one day, there will come a time when even $1 million won’t be enough to buy 1 BTC. To some, this sounds like a fairy tale, but when BTC was worth $100, a price of $100k also seemed like a fairy tale.
No market review today—the situation remains the same as yesterday. So, let’s do a little math.
As of today, 20.07 million BTC have been mined—95.6% of the total supply. Only 4.4% remains, which will be mined by the year 2140.
But the actual amount of BTC in circulation is even smaller:
16.7% of coins are considered lost forever, and 5.2% are in Satoshi’s wallets—meaning ~22% of the supply can effectively be ruled out. In reality, about 75% of all BTC is actually available.
And the available supply will continue to decline: look at how much BTC large companies and funds are snapping up, and another portion will be lost or burned.
And finally, the most interesting part—a comparison with M2 (global money supply), which is constantly growing: the economy and inflation are structured in such a way that there is always more money in the world.
The rest is simple: BTC issuance is limited, the money supply is growing → part of it flows into BTC → the price rises. No cycles, bull markets, or other factors. Just math.
And one day, there will come a time when even $1 million won’t be enough to buy 1 BTC. To some, this sounds like a fairy tale, but when BTC was worth $100, a price of $100k also seemed like a fairy tale.
❗️ Trump is threatening to bomb Oman if it stands in the way of U.S. objectives in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
💴 According to CryptoQuant, altcoin trading volume has reached a two-year high.
In recent days, the market capitalization of altcoins, excluding ETH, has increased by approximately $135 billion.
Liquidity is actively shifting from BTC and ETH to riskier assets.
Historically, this shift in capital has served as an important indicator that alt season is approaching.
In recent days, the market capitalization of altcoins, excluding ETH, has increased by approximately $135 billion.
Liquidity is actively shifting from BTC and ETH to riskier assets.
Historically, this shift in capital has served as an important indicator that alt season is approaching.
Historically, every bear market has ended with a crossover of the Realized Price for long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) holders.
The only exception was the COVID-dump. So far, such a crossover has not yet occurred.
And if it doesn’t happen, we will see, for the first time, a transition from a bear cycle to a bull cycle without a crossover of the LTH and STH Realized Prices.
The only exception was the COVID-dump. So far, such a crossover has not yet occurred.
And if it doesn’t happen, we will see, for the first time, a transition from a bear cycle to a bull cycle without a crossover of the LTH and STH Realized Prices.
SHORT #HYPE/USDT
⭐️Leverage: Cross 10X50
✔️Entry: 82.745
🆓TP: 81.500 - 80.000 -
78.000 - 75.000
❌SL: 92.000
⭐️Leverage: Cross 10X50
✔️Entry: 82.745
🆓TP: 81.500 - 80.000 -
78.000 - 75.000
❌SL: 92.000
Stop looking at macro through the lens of “rate cut = BTC up.”
Lower rates can be bullish for $BTC, but the rate itself is not the main variable.
The usual logic is simple:
Rates ↓ → money gets cheaper → financial conditions ease → liquidity rises → capital moves into risk assets → BTC rises.
The problem is that it doesn't always work this way.
The Fed may cut rates because the economy is weakening. At the same time, QT can continue, banks can tighten lending, M2 can stagnate, and investors can reduce risk exposure.
In that scenario: rates ↓ + liquidity ↓ → BTC falls.
And the opposite is also possible. BTC can rally with high inflation and high rates if liquidity in the financial system is expanding.
Previous cycles show this clearly. The biggest BTC bull moves generally came alongside major injections of liquidity through QE, fiscal stimulus, M2 expansion, and credit growth.
The current market is another good example. BTC's move this week wasn't just about rate expectations. Markets have also been pricing in Treasury buybacks, a weaker DXY, the CLARITY Act, and stronger demand for hard assets amid inflation and massive government debt.
So instead of watching one number, watch the whole system: M2, DXY, yields, QT/QE, the Fed balance sheet, government spending, deficits, credit conditions, and the broader news environment.
The interest rate is just one part of the picture — not a simple “BTC up” or “BTC down” button.
Lower rates can be bullish for $BTC, but the rate itself is not the main variable.
The usual logic is simple:
Rates ↓ → money gets cheaper → financial conditions ease → liquidity rises → capital moves into risk assets → BTC rises.
The problem is that it doesn't always work this way.
The Fed may cut rates because the economy is weakening. At the same time, QT can continue, banks can tighten lending, M2 can stagnate, and investors can reduce risk exposure.
In that scenario: rates ↓ + liquidity ↓ → BTC falls.
And the opposite is also possible. BTC can rally with high inflation and high rates if liquidity in the financial system is expanding.
Previous cycles show this clearly. The biggest BTC bull moves generally came alongside major injections of liquidity through QE, fiscal stimulus, M2 expansion, and credit growth.
The current market is another good example. BTC's move this week wasn't just about rate expectations. Markets have also been pricing in Treasury buybacks, a weaker DXY, the CLARITY Act, and stronger demand for hard assets amid inflation and massive government debt.
So instead of watching one number, watch the whole system: M2, DXY, yields, QT/QE, the Fed balance sheet, government spending, deficits, credit conditions, and the broader news environment.
The interest rate is just one part of the picture — not a simple “BTC up” or “BTC down” button.
The arbitrage is coming to an end, so I want to share some feedback and results from people who participated today.
Sometimes other people’s experience says more than another long explanation.
Take a look at the screenshots below and draw your own conclusions.
Sometimes other people’s experience says more than another long explanation.
Take a look at the screenshots below and draw your own conclusions.