breaking news:

due to legal reasons, i will not be giving any more girl advice. a few of my followers are now arrested for sexual harassment after following my advice, and i do not want to be associated with that. i hope you can understand, just protecting myself

something i’ve been playing with is a probability based scenario based on the Monty Hall problem, and implementing it into trading

i find myself initially being early early to most thing, so i size based off the information i have present at the time

as new information presents itself, its statistically +EV it to double down instead of just hold.

upon new info streams building / changing conviction, it’s increasingly +EV in a bull market to double down regardless of price action, if the narrative strengths based on this new information presented

for the brainlets, TDLR:

double down on winners, cut losers

based on the new info:

switching doors: double down

staying at your same door: selling / holding

the analogy of the door revealing the goat is similar to the token revealing there is SOME bid. you already know its not a launch PnD. based on this info you are +EV to double down instead of simply holding

amazing read here down, i like to read my old writing to kinda freshen up myself. found myself implementing this strategy alot in recent wins

if your not already in Pow’s channel, make sure you join. he’s 70 people away from 100,000 degens

twizzy🤞

https://t.me/PowsGemCalls

never crash out based on emotions

stay true to the game, never fuck over your brothers, and sacrifice the time needed to reach the pinnacle, those 3 are the ingredients to turn your dreams into a reality

they can never buy my time, that’s how i know i truly made it

how the market feels right now

block out noise

rebalancing going into EOTY. will be slowly selling every single loss across every position before EOTY to tax harvest, and riding out current bigger positions till jan 1st, 2025

roughly 75% stabled here, remaining in exposure as low lev DOGE, PENGU, some HYPE, and liquid solana on Photon for new flips. have one BSC, BASE, FTM, hedge per chain, in case either get a random bid, and a lil liquid on each chain just in case anything pops up

besides that, going to be treating myself and fam for christmas

godspeed and happy holidays frens

the greater the challenge, the more glory in surmounting it

if it was easy, everyone would have accomplished it

i think $AIT is the perfect example of the monty hall scenario implemented in trading

ive been implementing this into my trading, doors being reveal as the analogy of statistically most pumpfuns go to zero, its a -EV game odds wise. however once a token your in is reveal as the .1% pumpfuns that bond and arnt at zero a day later, its better +EV to double down, choose the other door in the analogy, as its now +EV 66% odds

the moment that i bid AIT before confirmation, -EV oddwise bet, and it turned out to be real, the odds went from 33% to 66% chance of me doubling down here (reference monty hall door odds, on chain odds slightly differ but it’s the same picture EV wise)

doubling down here is the move i chose, instead of hold or sell. regardless of the PA of AIT, i understand this trade is just a bet. i will be right and profitable on x time frame as variance plays over time

godspeed

this is not a call, more so insight into how i trade

> me when i say im going to enjoy the holidays yet still blast 100 sol for no reason bc im bored