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I'm back Legends, it's been a long stretch. Let's run up the bag in 2025
Whose with me 🥂

2025: The Year of Lock-in. If you are willing to commit to changing your finances, staying healthy, and living a high-quality life, please react here.

📊Market Overview:

#BTC has plummeted, and altcoins have generally fallen.

U.S. stocks have sharply declined, undergoing weekly-level adjustments, and the yield on 10-year U.S.

Treasury bonds has reached a new high for the first time in 20 years. With strong U.S. economic data, the market has lost confidence in a rate cut before July.


📈Market Highlights:

AI projects on exchanges, such as #AI and #ACT, have risen. #ACT is transforming into a framework platform.

On-chain AI projects generally declined. Binance has listed futures for #SWARMS, #COOKIE, and #ALCH, but not on spot market.

#MAX has seen a significant increase, originating from the former #ORAI team, which is developing an AI agent launch platform on the SOL blockchain.

SONIC has been listed on Upbit with a market cap of $2.5 billion.

#SONIC is an EVM on the SOL blockchain and has partnered with TikTok for a point-earning game.

#USUAL has seen a significant drop, with a daily emission rate of 0.7% recently.

#BTC moved as per the plan and dropped towards the $93,000 area which is drawn as support. The Bearishness might continue as price is not giving any signs of bullishness. In short-term buyer are in control but wait for the further session opening to see the clear picture.

Market Update

- US inflation rises to 3%, higher than expectations. https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1889681811191517285

- President Trump says interest rates should be lowered. https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1889661475716763948

- President Trump says he and Russia's Putin agreed to visit each other's nations and "start negotiations immediately." https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1889722046537404606

- Crypto custody firm BitGo said to weigh IPO as soon as 2H 2025. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-11/crypto-custody-firm-bitgo-said-to-weigh-ipo-as-soon-as-this-year

- Trump plans to nominate a16z’s Brian Quintenz to chair CFTC. https://www.theblock.co/post/340249/trump-plans-to-nominate-a16zs-brian-quintenz-to-chair-cftc-bloomberg

- Franklin Templeton extends FOBXX fund to Solana, marking its latest blockchain extension. https://www.theblock.co/post/340432/franklin-templeton-extends-fobxx-fund-to-solana

- Trump's crypto company launches strategic 'token reserve'.  https://www.reuters.com/technology/trumps-crypto-company-launches-strategic-token-reserve-2025-02-12/

- Japan plans to reduce crypto tax from 55% to 20% and Bitcoin ETF incomings. https://99bitcoins.com/news/japan-considers-approving-bitcoin-etfs-can-reduce-crypto-tax-from-55-to-20/

- Goldman Sachs just added $833M more Bitcoin exposure, now holds $1.6 billion in holdings. https://x.com/QuintenFrancois/status/1889420110990827989

- Metaplanet reported unrealized gains of $30M through BTC and announced accumulating 21k BTC in 2025. https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1889509782551224780

- Current projections have rates only going down to 3.75–4%.  https://x.com/brett_eth/status/1889372202987823589

- We have soft landing?? https://x.com/amitisinvesting/status/1889343200793702874

Overall Market Major Update:
USDT.D is currently forming a rounding bottom pattern, which means that it's bullish. I'm expecting that we will go for a cup and handle pattern, because it's not easy to break from above of the neckline since it's a very strong mid-term level.

Which means that we will go for a retest around the support (close to %4.7) in a small dump, after that I believe the USDT.D will go for a massive pump.

How this works;
USDT.D Goes up = Crypto-market goes down
USDT.D Goes down = Crypto market goes up

Basically Trump speech on DAS is nothing, like usual..

I was about to wait for an update after this thinking it could be important but… you know, nothing burger..

I’ll throw update soon..

What we're seeing right now :

- Market finally realizes that the Trump wants the economy to look bad with fear across and put the decrease of interest rate in FED's hands.

- The reciprocal tariffs are negotiation tool to gain advantage over other countries for investment deals for US.

- Potentially with the fastest 10% drop in the history of S&P500, market priced in recession.

- The SMEs are are targeting for expansion in US. This is not the indication for natural recession as well. Market sees this as more clarity in the market.

- Based on seasonality, stock market always bottomed in March on every 3rd week. Market also see this as another odds for bottom.

- The FED will reduce run off balance which market is now seeing it as slowing down in QT with the trend to shift to QE soon.

- Now the job is to maintain the close higher on daily basis on both stocks and crypto and we will see soaring higher from current level.

Bitcoin

Entering this crossing point which potentially bring us for more clarity sooner than we can expect.

This is the most horrible Q1 but I see much better Q2 with the possibility of another run up to $110k BTC.

The home work that the price must do is to close the daily candlestick above $90k.

My view still hasn't changed, upside we go.

#BTC gave a close over in H4 TF and in Daily TF as well. Now its retracing back to the level and can push further higher with NY open.

GMTUSDT SPOT BUY HERE AT 0.0537

Thesis

I think it's now time for another discussion about the market condition, how do the market participants feel and what's the next direction in the market.

We are right now seeing a potential shift in Trump's tariff effect which has impacted the market. As we can see right now, the equities are starting to trend up and leave the extreme fear territory.

Some metrics like the success of gold card sales, new investment into the US and the SMEs corporation which aims to expansion are curving up is showing us that maybe the recession fear is just another illusion that Trump created.

As the time progresses, it's now becoming clear that Trump's shill of the tariff actually is his strategy to open negotiations to the other countries. So far, it's worth the wait as we have seen new direct investment worth of more than $3 trillion has been flowing in to US.

I think that Trump maybe won't make it worst again for the economy through tariff announcement. From this point on, he will be very cautious about using tariff policy to drag down the economy. Why?

- There is benefit of getting new direct investment which has been achieved.
- USA down to just 64% of global equity market cap.
- The spread for recession is super thin, he can't simply play with fire.

which essentially if Trump wants to shill any bad news again, the recovery will be difficult and it'll leave a negative report for Trump's first year administration.

Also that I think several factors like :
1. FED's stance of easing in QT
2. Weakening US Dollar
3. Business cycle expansion
4. Favorable seasonality for US stock indices (bottom in march)
5. And still a so-so credit market which is still resilient.

Will eventually giving us another fresh breath as a rest for current craziness in the market.

April 2nd will be the tariff liberation day and will probably play a big role in deciding.

My stance right now is 80% bullish and 20% bearish.

The odds of equity market and BTC to reach ATH is getting bigger and bigger as the days progress to the end of March.

I think to prove whether my thesis will play out or not, there are 2 events which will give us more clarity about the next short term direction.

1. GDP result : If we see a positive GDP growth, we have another leeway of 2 quarters to prevent recession, which will give the risk on a good environment.
2. April 2nd which is the "Tariff liberation day". The market is waiting for this event before deciding whether it's to deploy cash or stay defensive.

#GOLD UPDATE :

#GOLD dropped after the trendline break and eventually broke the $3,300 area. With that, price nearly reached the support zone (grey box) as mentioned and took a ride off. Well, a resistance TL also broke and expecting a push in higher prices sooner. Area of $3330 looks sweet area for buys with confirmation.

$LTC / $USD - Update

I am holding my long over $84.50 support zone.

Statistics of the number of stablecoins on exchanges

At the moment, almost 59% of all stablcoins in contacting trading platforms are concentrated on the Binance cryptocurrency exchange. That 31.4 MLD $ in USDT and USDC is equivalent.

In second place with the result of 15.3% is OKX, and in the third position - Coinbase.

Bybit and Mexc also entered this list and took 4 and 5 positions.‌‌

$QNT / $USD - Update

I am long over $103.50