🔮🇺🇸 #macro Kalshi odds show a 97% chance of a 25 bps cut today, but the real risk is the Fed’s 2026 outlook.
September projections signaled only one cut next year and a 3.4% year-end rate. Analysts expect guidance to turn neutral to hawkish as the Fed stays on hold into early 2026, potentially pressuring equities.
Powell is likely to emphasize that further cuts require weaker inflation or higher unemployment. With his term ending in May, today’s decision and press conference will be closely watched.
The FOMC rate decision will be announced in 30 minutes ⏰
September projections signaled only one cut next year and a 3.4% year-end rate. Analysts expect guidance to turn neutral to hawkish as the Fed stays on hold into early 2026, potentially pressuring equities.
Powell is likely to emphasize that further cuts require weaker inflation or higher unemployment. With his term ending in May, today’s decision and press conference will be closely watched.
The FOMC rate decision will be announced in 30 minutes ⏰
🇺🇸👀 #macro Traders now see the Fed Funds rate at 3.1% at the end of 2026 and estimate the probability of a pause at the January meeting at 78%.
🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC Powell:
- Inflation remains somewhat elevated; goods inflation accelerated due to tariffs.
- Long-term inflation expectations stay near 2%.
- Labor market is softer; job growth likely overstated by ~60k in recent months.
- Economy is not overheated.
- Fed will make decisions meeting-by-meeting; policy is not on a preset course.
- Rates are within a plausible neutral range.
- Fed is buying short-term Treasuries to support money-market stability.
Repo operations remain important; reserve levels are sufficient.
- #AI-related data-center spending supports investment.
Inflation on goods expected to peak in Q1 if no new tariffs.
- Tariffs are the main driver of higher goods inflation.
- Inflation remains somewhat elevated; goods inflation accelerated due to tariffs.
- Long-term inflation expectations stay near 2%.
- Labor market is softer; job growth likely overstated by ~60k in recent months.
- Economy is not overheated.
- Fed will make decisions meeting-by-meeting; policy is not on a preset course.
- Rates are within a plausible neutral range.
- Fed is buying short-term Treasuries to support money-market stability.
Repo operations remain important; reserve levels are sufficient.
- #AI-related data-center spending supports investment.
Inflation on goods expected to peak in Q1 if no new tariffs.
- Tariffs are the main driver of higher goods inflation.
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🐳 #BTC Whales continue to add BTC while retail buying pressure is at yearly lows.
📊 #BTC CryptoQuant: Low selling pressure opens room for a relief rally. Bitcoin could climb toward $99K, the lower band of the Trader Realized Price, a key resistance. Above that, the next hurdles sit at $102K and $112K.
🇺🇸👀 #macro James Lavish says the US Treasury is pushing for rate cuts because with so much government debt in short-term T-bills, every 25bp cut reduces annual interest costs by about $25 billion.
🥳🆕 #STABLE [Market Addition] Added STABLE KRW Market (#Free Transaction Fees) feed.bithumb.com #Bithumb #Listing
🇺🇸 CFTC announced the creation of an Innovation Council to guide market development. The initial membership includes the CEOs of Gemini, Kraken, Polymarket, Bitnomial and several others. coindesk
🇺🇸✅ Gemini has received CFTC approval to create a prediction market and may expand into cryptocurrency futures, options and perpetual contracts. theblock
🇺🇸🍿 The regulator released a report on so "debunking" various industries, including cryptocurrencies, saying Wall Street banks are guilty of it and could be penalized. coindesk #regulation
👍 #SOL State Street and Galaxy will launch SWEEP tokenized liquidity fund on Solana in 2026. coindesk
✏️ The Sygnum APAC HNWI Report 2025 states that 6 out of 10 Asian high net worth individuals surveyed are willing to increase their investments in cryptocurrencies based on optimistic projections for the next 2-5 years. cointelegraph