#teamstone Crypto Corner
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Forwarded from Boss Bot News
NEW: ⚠️ President Trump agrees to two-week double-sided ceasefire with Iran conditional on complete immediate safe opening of Strait of Hormuz — President Donald J. Trump
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👀👀 fog of war - some thoughts on markets:
Bitcoin up sharply. NSQ futures are up 3% which is big. Oil and dxy down as expected. interestingly gold and silver up as well
markets clearly believe there is sort of a ceasefire in place now but alot of things are uncertain.
There is a 10point plan shilled which would give iran option to enrich uranium and all other kinds of nonsense that i really dont see us/israel agreeing to. so for now i consider this all as a fragile ceasefire but it definitely gives the markets across the board some relief.
especially for my thoughts on crypto nothing has changed. even after all this BTC so far hasnt taken out the march highs. I really really hope this narrative has legs and that i can sell some more ETH at 2.6k++ but i am begging for this for months now and thus far always got disappointed.
Imo 4y cycle is firmly in place and a fragile ceasefire wont change this.
In rgds to stonks i am abit less confident bc they are by far not as cyclical as btc. I still think its very late for stonks in the cycle but could easily see stonks sweep ATH one last time in a frency which i can rule out for BTC. However that wouldnt be my base case. I havent bought stonks yet, i expect lower and i am sitting on a bag of cash.
Dubai, UAE, Bahrein, Doha, etc: For all those situation currently is a disaster. Yes it's good if the attacks stop and you dont have constant missile alerts but underlying nothing has been solved. With Iran continuing to exist in its current form any reasonable investor knows what happens once can easily happen again. Very few people will invest big into a country which from one moment to the next can be attacked by missiles and drones again.
I think with a lasting ceasefire Dubai would do okish again after a while but would have a severly capped upside going forward. Everything in Dubai is priced and developed for perfection. As long as things were perfect (swiss of the middle east) this system worked. It wont work when you have looming iran threat and 10s of thousands properties being finished every year where you neither find buyers nor renters. So property would see big correction to price in this threat. But then again dubai always came back stronger & i am quite sure leadership is hyperaware of all the points i mentioned. Also due to upside being capped for many years to come in this scenario could make sense to slowly scale out of dubai exposure if you have alot (like me). Lets say regime stays in power with decent peace agreement there is zero chance you will outperform an all world etf via dubai real estate over the next decade which means dubai real estate carries high opportunity cost.
What narrative could bring us lower later this year?
In case they really manage to negotiate well and we have lasting peace with iran which is a big IF from what i have seen there has been insane amount of damage done to energy infra in the middle east across every gulf country. Nothing of this is priced in yet imo so that after the dust settles this could trigger the overdue recession and then will have to be getting priced in later this year. For me just watching on X impossible to distinguish how bad things really are in this regard but from what I have seen things not looking great and will take months and years to repair some of the stuff
Bitcoin up sharply. NSQ futures are up 3% which is big. Oil and dxy down as expected. interestingly gold and silver up as well
markets clearly believe there is sort of a ceasefire in place now but alot of things are uncertain.
There is a 10point plan shilled which would give iran option to enrich uranium and all other kinds of nonsense that i really dont see us/israel agreeing to. so for now i consider this all as a fragile ceasefire but it definitely gives the markets across the board some relief.
especially for my thoughts on crypto nothing has changed. even after all this BTC so far hasnt taken out the march highs. I really really hope this narrative has legs and that i can sell some more ETH at 2.6k++ but i am begging for this for months now and thus far always got disappointed.
Imo 4y cycle is firmly in place and a fragile ceasefire wont change this.
In rgds to stonks i am abit less confident bc they are by far not as cyclical as btc. I still think its very late for stonks in the cycle but could easily see stonks sweep ATH one last time in a frency which i can rule out for BTC. However that wouldnt be my base case. I havent bought stonks yet, i expect lower and i am sitting on a bag of cash.
Dubai, UAE, Bahrein, Doha, etc: For all those situation currently is a disaster. Yes it's good if the attacks stop and you dont have constant missile alerts but underlying nothing has been solved. With Iran continuing to exist in its current form any reasonable investor knows what happens once can easily happen again. Very few people will invest big into a country which from one moment to the next can be attacked by missiles and drones again.
I think with a lasting ceasefire Dubai would do okish again after a while but would have a severly capped upside going forward. Everything in Dubai is priced and developed for perfection. As long as things were perfect (swiss of the middle east) this system worked. It wont work when you have looming iran threat and 10s of thousands properties being finished every year where you neither find buyers nor renters. So property would see big correction to price in this threat. But then again dubai always came back stronger & i am quite sure leadership is hyperaware of all the points i mentioned. Also due to upside being capped for many years to come in this scenario could make sense to slowly scale out of dubai exposure if you have alot (like me). Lets say regime stays in power with decent peace agreement there is zero chance you will outperform an all world etf via dubai real estate over the next decade which means dubai real estate carries high opportunity cost.
What narrative could bring us lower later this year?
In case they really manage to negotiate well and we have lasting peace with iran which is a big IF from what i have seen there has been insane amount of damage done to energy infra in the middle east across every gulf country. Nothing of this is priced in yet imo so that after the dust settles this could trigger the overdue recession and then will have to be getting priced in later this year. For me just watching on X impossible to distinguish how bad things really are in this regard but from what I have seen things not looking great and will take months and years to repair some of the stuff
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