📉 85% of 2025 tokens are trading below launch
85% of token launches in 2025 are trading below their listing price. Even VC-backed deals are barely breaking even, with many deep in the red.
In Q2 2022, crypto VCs raised nearly $17B in a single quarter and launched 80+ new funds. Capital was flowing into almost anything labeled “crypto.”
Now the picture is different:
➡️ VC ROI has been falling since 2022
➡️ New fund count is at a 5-year low
➡️ Last quarter fundraising was just 12% of Q2 2022 levels
Yes, VCs deployed $8.5B last quarter, up 84% QoQ. But most of that is capital raised in 2022. From 2023 to 2025, total capital deployed is roughly equal to what was raised in 2022 alone.
The old model was simple: raise a round, launch a token, sell to retail.
That model is fading.
As VC influence weakens, projects with real users and real revenue may finally have an edge. Less insider pressure. More product focus.
The easy money cycle is closing. The build cycle might be starting.
85% of token launches in 2025 are trading below their listing price. Even VC-backed deals are barely breaking even, with many deep in the red.
In Q2 2022, crypto VCs raised nearly $17B in a single quarter and launched 80+ new funds. Capital was flowing into almost anything labeled “crypto.”
Now the picture is different:
➡️ VC ROI has been falling since 2022
➡️ New fund count is at a 5-year low
➡️ Last quarter fundraising was just 12% of Q2 2022 levels
Yes, VCs deployed $8.5B last quarter, up 84% QoQ. But most of that is capital raised in 2022. From 2023 to 2025, total capital deployed is roughly equal to what was raised in 2022 alone.
The old model was simple: raise a round, launch a token, sell to retail.
That model is fading.
As VC influence weakens, projects with real users and real revenue may finally have an edge. Less insider pressure. More product focus.
The easy money cycle is closing. The build cycle might be starting.
🤣3😐3🤨2❤1
⚠️ US reportedly preparing large-scale campaign against Iran
Tensions around Iran remain elevated. Axios reports that the US is preparing a potential military campaign that could last weeks and resemble a full-scale war, possibly in coordination with Israel.
According to the report, the operation would exceed recent regional conflicts in scope. Diplomatic prospects are described as unlikely, with sources saying the window for a deal is effectively closed.
Over the past 48 hours, the US has moved significant air assets to the Middle East:
🔴 48 F-16 fighters
🔴 12 F-22 fighters
🔴 18 F-35 fighters
🔴 6 E-3G Sentry AWACS aircraft
🔴 Around 40 aerial refueling tankers
🔴 1 RC-135V Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft
This comes on top of deployments made over the past month.
Tensions around Iran remain elevated. Axios reports that the US is preparing a potential military campaign that could last weeks and resemble a full-scale war, possibly in coordination with Israel.
According to the report, the operation would exceed recent regional conflicts in scope. Diplomatic prospects are described as unlikely, with sources saying the window for a deal is effectively closed.
Over the past 48 hours, the US has moved significant air assets to the Middle East:
🔴 48 F-16 fighters
🔴 12 F-22 fighters
🔴 18 F-35 fighters
🔴 6 E-3G Sentry AWACS aircraft
🔴 Around 40 aerial refueling tankers
🔴 1 RC-135V Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft
This comes on top of deployments made over the past month.
🔥3👍2🤔2🌚1
🇺🇸 CZ returns to the US and shows up at Trump’s crypto summit
Changpeng Zhao visited the US for the first time after serving his sentence and attended the World Liberty Financial crypto summit at Donald Trump’s residence.
➡️ Binance previously admitted US violations and paid a $3.4B fine.
➡️ Zhao paid $50M personally, served 4 months in prison, and received a pardon from Trump in 2025.
➡️ Media had reported possible links between WLFI and Binance around the USD1 stablecoin launch, but both sides deny it.
Representatives of major banks, exchanges, and regulators were also present.
Changpeng Zhao visited the US for the first time after serving his sentence and attended the World Liberty Financial crypto summit at Donald Trump’s residence.
➡️ Binance previously admitted US violations and paid a $3.4B fine.
➡️ Zhao paid $50M personally, served 4 months in prison, and received a pardon from Trump in 2025.
➡️ Media had reported possible links between WLFI and Binance around the USD1 stablecoin launch, but both sides deny it.
Representatives of major banks, exchanges, and regulators were also present.
👍4👏2❤1🤝1
US Q4 GDP price index rose 3.7% annualized QoQ, above the 2.9% estimate.
December PCE price index increased 0.4% MoM versus 0.3% expected, and 2.9% YoY versus 2.8% forecast.
The GDP price index reflects broad inflation pressures in the economy. PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
December PCE price index increased 0.4% MoM versus 0.3% expected, and 2.9% YoY versus 2.8% forecast.
The GDP price index reflects broad inflation pressures in the economy. PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
That reduces the urgency for rate cuts and supports a higher-for-longer policy stance.
For markets, that is typically negative for risk assets and supportive for the dollar and yields in the short term.
❤5👍3👏1
BREAKING: Trump plans to impose tariffs in a different way after his loss at the Supreme Court, per NYT
Trump plans to invoke new trade authorities after ruling.
Trump plans to invoke new trade authorities after ruling.
❤3🔥3👏2😁1
💵 A falling dollar is not the crisis headlines claim
The US dollar dropped about 9% against major currencies in 2025 and lost another 1.5% in the first weeks of 2026. Media coverage frames this as a problem.
➡️ The mechanics point elsewhere. When returns fade in traditional dollar safe havens like US Treasuries, capital does not wait. It moves further out on the risk curve, including into crypto.
➡️ The last comparable dollar slide was in 2017. That year, $BTC went from roughly $1,000 to $20,000.
➡️ The market is much larger now, so broad 20x moves are unlikely. Still, if $DXY keeps sliding toward the 90 area, the pressure will show up in asset prices.
A weaker dollar is not a headwind for risk.
It tends to act like fuel.
The US dollar dropped about 9% against major currencies in 2025 and lost another 1.5% in the first weeks of 2026. Media coverage frames this as a problem.
➡️ The mechanics point elsewhere. When returns fade in traditional dollar safe havens like US Treasuries, capital does not wait. It moves further out on the risk curve, including into crypto.
➡️ The last comparable dollar slide was in 2017. That year, $BTC went from roughly $1,000 to $20,000.
➡️ The market is much larger now, so broad 20x moves are unlikely. Still, if $DXY keeps sliding toward the 90 area, the pressure will show up in asset prices.
A weaker dollar is not a headwind for risk.
It tends to act like fuel.
🤣4👍2🔥1🥰1
🦞 AI bot sent $270K to a random commenter
An OpenAI developer known as Pash launched an experiment with OpenClaw, giving a bot called Lobstar Wilde a $50,000 budget and a goal to turn it into $1M.
The model had access to X, a crypto wallet, and other tools, and quickly gained attention online.
Soon, unknown users created a meme token called $LOBSTAR and made the AI the recipient of trading fees.
At one point, the bot controlled about 5% of the token supply.
After Pash reset the model due to technical issues, Lobstar suddenly sent 52M LOBSTAR tokens, worth about $270,000 at the time, to a commenter asking for 4 SOL for “uncle’s treatment.”
The AI had forgotten its balance context and transferred its full holdings instead of the intended equivalent.
Within an hour, market cap recovered and moved above pre-incident levels. The initial loss reportedly grew toward $450,000 before the recovery.
An OpenAI developer known as Pash launched an experiment with OpenClaw, giving a bot called Lobstar Wilde a $50,000 budget and a goal to turn it into $1M.
The model had access to X, a crypto wallet, and other tools, and quickly gained attention online.
Soon, unknown users created a meme token called $LOBSTAR and made the AI the recipient of trading fees.
At one point, the bot controlled about 5% of the token supply.
After Pash reset the model due to technical issues, Lobstar suddenly sent 52M LOBSTAR tokens, worth about $270,000 at the time, to a commenter asking for 4 SOL for “uncle’s treatment.”
The AI had forgotten its balance context and transferred its full holdings instead of the intended equivalent.
Within an hour, market cap recovered and moved above pre-incident levels. The initial loss reportedly grew toward $450,000 before the recovery.
👏3❤2🤯2👍1
JUST IN: Ⓜ️ Meta is planning a stablecoin comeback in late 2026 by integrating existing stablecoins like USDC for payments on Instagram and WhatsApp.
🥰3👏2❤1😁1
All planning must happen before the session.
During the session: execute.
If you’re “figuring it out” live, you’re gambling.
During the session: execute.
If you’re “figuring it out” live, you’re gambling.
👏3❤2🥰2🍾1
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
JPMorgan $JPM CEO Jamie Dimon said he is starting to see parallels between today's market and the era before the 2008 financial crisis.
"Unfortunately, we did see this in ’05, ’06 and ’07, almost the same thing - the rising tide was lifting all boats, everyone was making a lot of money.”
"Unfortunately, we did see this in ’05, ’06 and ’07, almost the same thing - the rising tide was lifting all boats, everyone was making a lot of money.”
👍3❤2🔥2🥱1