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Bitcoin's Aggregated Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) reading and uptrend has weakned and become nearly flat, since the recent increase in tensions over Russia and Ukraine, indicating that aggressive sellers have regained control during the past week.

Additionally, Bitcoin's weekly candle close is likely going to be negative tonight.

We look to see Bitcoin hold above 39.6k to maintain any hopes of continued positivity on the short-term, and generally speaking I think it is safe to expect that Bitcoin remains below 47k for an extended period of time.
All of this makes it difficult to say where the market goes from here, but it may be worth mentioning that if Russia/Ukraine tensions start to decay in upcoming weeks, the market could recover and look more positive again, and the opposite if tensions increase.
This week, the FOMC meeting minutes will be put in focus, in addition to numbers related to retail sales, home sales, industrial production and manufacturing numbers, and fianlly the Fed will be discussing and speaking on the economy and policy outlook.
It is important to note that Bitcoin, technically has dealt with a lot of negative events with very high resilience so far in comparison with previous cycles. In 2017, after achieving the all-time-high (ATH), Bitcoin was not able to hold positively or achieve any higher highs until two years later from the ATH, in 2019.
⚡️Bitcoin has formed a bullish head and shoulders pattern, and could attempt to break above 47k in the next 2 weeks. Establishing positive price action above 47k would put the 52-53k price range within reach. If not, then we will likely need more time below 47k which could allow Bitcoin to slip below 40k again.
So it seems that rejection was our fate, Bitcoin must hold above 39600 in order to maintain its technical positivity.
According to the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicator, aggressive sellers outweighed buyers today with a noticeable increase in supply on exchanges based on exchange in-flows.
In this image, you can see the CVD indicator falling sharply today, with a higher impact on the price than it did in the previous range, indicating a lack of buyers' orders on the way down.
This price zone is where we assess Bitcoin’s real technical strength, if it holds above $39600 throughout the next few weeks then onwards we can go, if not we’re back to retest lower 30’s.
⚡️Bitcoin breaking below the $39,600 mark is a continuation signal of the downward trend and represents the need to retest lower 30's. Also, the probability of breaking the $33k bottom has increased due to Bitcoin's failing to breach or touch the $47k area.
The war scenario opens a wide range of possibilities, none of which are positive, specially in terms of its reflection on such a high-risk market that is crypto. Gold behaves excellently in such scenarios. As for Bitcoin we have not properly learned from its short history how well it can respond in such crisis, but the odds of entering an economic recession combined with increasing prices and inflation is only likely to increase (stagflation).
With all that was said, technically, Bitcoin still appears to be a fierce warrior despite all surrounding circumstances in comparison with previous cycles, and we can only hope that circumstances do not force it to break the $28,800 low.

Very important read about the current state of the market.

My take on it is that all charts explained in it seem to indicate that top buyers have already sold, that there isn't many sellers left willing to sell below 39k, and that there's a supply shock happening since the last 64k top.
BREAKING: The Federal Reserve just announced they are increasing interest rates by 0.25%, as expected and stated in the last meeting.
The US Federal Reserve expects inflation to start declining during the first half of the year. This could be our primary indicator to judge the Fed’s direction in upcoming interest rate hikes later throughout this year. Jerome Powell suggests a higher probability of "moving more quickly" in interest rates hikes as this year progresses.

We do not expect significant negative impact from today's 0.25% rate hike, as it was mostly already priced in, and Bitcoin was able to stabilize above the 37K despite everything going on.
Forwarded from CryptoQuant
Bitcoin's realized cap gives us a bullish sign

"This is a clear bullish sign for the price on a mid to long-term basis."

by Greatest_Trader | @cryptoquant_official
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