Not too much is changing, so I'm taking a few days off while the market decides on a clear direction. The plan remains the same.

Wishing you all a blessed Sunday.

Quick update:

As mentioned before, several factors could trigger a black swan event before the US election. This would cause a 35% avg. drop for altcoins, meaning that big caps could dump 25-35%, and low caps could dump 40-60%.

Once again, this would be a very last shakeout before a real altseason could begin. So if it happens, just be ready and don't get scared.

Stay safe.

Probabilities for this scenario have just increased.

I've sold some altcoins to reduce my exposure to the market, even if I was already covered with a hedge.

If this scenario doesn’t play out, there’s no issue in re-entering positions later. However, we can’t ignore the data—the market is showing significant weakness at this point.

This is how the altcoins market cap chart looks right now. Also:

-Elections uncertainty.

-Mt. Gox moving funds.

-Potential escalation of the Middle East conflict.

-Lots of liquidity below.

...

I'm completely out of the market. Better to be in ''wait and see'' mode for now.

GM!

Trump won the U.S. election, which I believe is positive for crypto in the mid to long term. However, I'm still being cautious before adding exposure to the market. The presidential inauguration ceremony isn't until January 20th, and there are still some risk factors in play, including potential sources of strong supply hitting the market. There's also the FOMC meeting today.

So, for now, I'm avoiding the euphoria and FOMO and just waiting.

People ask me how I can stay so calm in moments like these. The truth is, I don’t like to buy breakouts, especially when they are not planned and there's emotion involved. I prefer to buy at support levels or during retests, when the conditions are right. That's what works for me.

I know there are some people making good money these days, and I'm very happy for them. However, I prefer to be cautious still, and have little to no exposure right now.

No FOMO. Clear mind and sticking to the plan.

GM

BTC keeps showing incredible strength. Congratulations to those who are making good profits!

I'm still out of the market for a few weeks now. At this point, it doesn’t matter if it reaches $98k, $99k, or if it goes above $100k. The local top could occur at any moment, and this movement could be fully retraced. Some of the reasons why I'm still being cautious:

-Sentiment is extremely bullish here. Retail is piling in massively, aping into memecoins. The memecoin rally feels overextended, and that's unhealthy. A strong correction is overdue, and it will likely affect the entire market.

-Trump is still not in power. The Democrats are still governing the country, and despite saying the transfer of power would be ''smooth and in a peaceful way'', they are already trying to provoke a big war. In my view, this is a desperate attempt to apply the martial law or/and leave Trump in a complicated position. By allowing and helping Ukraine to send long distance missiles into Russian territory, the situation is escalating. I don't want this to happen. Most people don't want this to happen. But sadly, it's not something we can control, because there are real psychopaths in the elite circles of control. We can just pray and adapt.

-Also, the U.S. government holds 208,109 BTC (currently $20.15B). They recently got approval to sell the Silk Road Bitcoin, likely through auctions or gradual sales. Honestly, it wouldn’t be surprising if they timed it to tank BTC prices and make the next administration look bad—or just to make sure they don’t leave those BTC behind for them to use.

-The dollar has been showing strength while BTC was pumping, forming a divergence.

-Many altcoins are showing weakness and testing major levels as resistance. It's mostly a BTC and memecoins run, which is never a good sign. Not ruling out a few final altcoins pumps, but if my thesis is right, they could dump 60-80% over the next few weeks.

The analysis is much more complex than this. These are just some of the reasons why I prefer to avoid being exposed to the market right now. I don't see this as a wasted opportunity or a 'missed train'. Sometimes, it's better to let trains pass and wait for the one that will safely take you where you truly want to go.

This is just my opinion and what I'm doing. Not trying to convince anyone.

Stay safe everyone.

These are probably the last altcoins pumps. Many have already reached resistance, though a few could still pump this weekend.

I’m sticking to the main plan. The reversal should start soon.

Wishing you all a blessed weekend!

GM

Both $BTC and $ETH are hitting major resistance here. At this point, it doesn't matter whether Bitcoin takes the $100k level or not. Whales have started to distribute, and only retail buying is occurring.

Altcoins are having their last pumps. We could expect some low caps to run a bit more during this weekend, but overall, most of them have also reached a very important resistance zone. Taking new positions now could be highly risky given the current market conditions.

I expect the reversal to start very soon, and December to be a bearish month, where some moves could be fully retraced. For now, staying calm and sticking to the plan with patience and confidence is key. Better opportunities are coming.

I will post some charts next week.

Enjoy the weekend and stay safe!

For those feeling like they're missing out these days:

When you see prices rising, people euphorically sharing profits, bullish news, random coins pumping like crazy... it's normal to feel like you're being left behind. However, making decisions based on FOMO can lead to big mistakes.

Everything seems clearer in hindsight. The reality is, if you didn’t enter the market a few days ago, it’s now too risky. It's true that you need to take risks to make money, but it’s better if they’re calculated and driven by reason rather than emotion. Just as the market has skyrocketed in recent days, it can drop just as much in the coming ones. There are many reasons for this (sentiment is extremely bullish, lots of liquidity gaps below, major resistance levels being reached, strong supply coming into the market, whales selling vs. retail buying, geopolitical tensions...)

So, despite your natural impulses, think logically and don’t ignore the signals. It’s very likely we’ll see a strong correction in December.

I would also like to share something I wrote a few years ago:

Protecting your capital is much more important than making money.
Basically because if you lose your capital, making money is much harder.

"Missing the train" vs. "losing your money."
There are plenty of trains, but if your money is gone, it’s game over.

Stay patient, stay disciplined, and the right opportunities will come. I’ll be here to share them with you when the time is right.

Bitcoin reaches the historical level of $100,000. Now what?

This morning, Bitcoin has finally reached the $100,000 level—a milestone many have been anticipating for years. What can we expect now?

This possibility wasn’t off the table. As I mentioned earlier, it didn’t really matter if it grabbed liquidity at $100k or not. If the sentiment was already very bullish before, it has now reached extreme levels. It has attracted a lot of attention and is literally being featured on all mainstream media right now. Even world leaders are joining the excitement, with one president sharing screenshots of his profits. While this is good in the medium and long term, in the short term it could be another warning sign. Tops are always formed during times of extreme euphoria and when retail investors flood the market. Many people are expecting much higher, without even considering the possibility of a correction.

The key now will be whether BTC drops back below $100k, signaling a deviation. Altcoins haven’t followed this time, which could be an early sign of weakness. Funding rates are extremely high and need a reset, which can only be achieved with a strong pullback.

At the moment, I’m expecting an initial pullback to $89k–$91k, with altcoins dropping 10%–30%. If those levels hold, we could see a bounce from there, and some altcoins reaching new swing highs (there could be some short-term opportunities, I'll keep track of them), while BTC forms its first lower high. After that, the correction should extend much lower.

So, once again, keep calm and do NOT FOMO here.

In my opinion, that was the test dump.

Expecting a 15%-30% drop on altcoins, then a bounce where some might hit new highs, but others won’t (forming their first lower high).

#ALTCOINS - Htf view update

One of the altcoins market cap indexes (TOTAL3) has reached main resistance, taking the 2021 ATH.

#Bitcoin whales seem to have distributed above $100,000. $ETH has deviated above $4,000, where there was a lot of liquidity. And $SOL deviated above its 2021 ATH as well.

With the exception of a few altcoins that might still reach new swing highs, I believe the local top is likely in for most of the market.

$AIOZ

One of the few altcoins that could still make new highs if the dark zone holds.

I've bought some here at $1.05. Small exposure.