I wouldn't trust this quick pump against supply/resistance.

Looking at the current price action, I notice that the price is pumping with decreasing volume (especially spot volume is not matching the move), against supply and with fundings going up like crazy. It seems like futures going long here against resistance...

Not sure if it's going to go higher, but there's a strong possibility that this move could be fully retraced. Due to these and other factors, I'm adopting a cautious approach before increasing my positions in altcoins.

ZCX update

ZCX moved very well since the first post at $0.18. It broke the range high ($0.25), tested it as support and reached $0.45 (2.5x since the first post)

Now, as I said in other posts, if BTC retraces to $60k or a bit lower altcoins should drop more. ZCX could do a second retest of the $0.25 level, maybe deviating below as well. It wouldn't change the htf idea.

SOL

It broke the main resistance ($130-140) and continued higher, so now it's probably going to test it as support. If that zone holds, it could continue moving up towards the ATH.

Most altcoins look about to drop 20-30%.

Good morning.

$9.5B in BTC options just expired on Deribit. This expiry could increase volatility as market makers, who were previously hedging and maintaining the price within a certain tight range to avoid losses on options, adjust their positions.

The plan is still the same. A range has been formed between $60k and $73k. The liquidity is concentrated just outside the range, both above and below. Right now there's a lot of supply here and the market is overheated (too many longs), so I would think the price is going to test the range low first, and take the liquidity which is below $60k. After that, if price reclaims the range low, we could see a pre-halving run to new highs above the range high, potentially reaching $74k-75k. It will all depend on the interaction at the extremes of the range.

So for now I'm being cautious before adding any more exposure to the market, because if BTC deviates below $60k, which is likely, altcoins might drop 20-30%.

Good morning.


Despite the recent move, fundings remain very high and heatmaps are showing weakness with the demand being pulled, meaning it was being used as spoofing.

It seems this could be the beginning of the move to sub $60k, in order to take that liquidity. If that happens alts would dump 20-30%, where their next support is.

I hope you had a good weekend and I wish you a nice week ahead.

10% already, average. Another 10-20% left to reach support.

BTC hasn't reached support yet, and neither have altcoins. Longs are fueling the move down, price is forming lower highs...

This is not over yet, imo.

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Wait to see a capitulation candle with lots of liquidations, ideally deviating below $60k, before thinking about a local bottom.

Expecting bearish continuation soon.

TOTAL

Currently testing broken support as resistance, with a corrective pattern (DCB). If this level holds, we should see bearish continuation soon, to the next support level, which would match with BTC testing the liquidity below $60k.

ZCX update

Playing out perfectly.

I will probably add some more if it reaches support.

TOTAL update

Decent rejection from resistance.

BTC

Range play is key. I expect it to test the liquidity below the range low first.

Wait to see a capitulation candle with lots of liquidations, ideally deviating below $60k, before thinking about a local bottom.