GM!

Interest rate decision today. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged.

Even if there's a rate cut, I don't see it as a bullish event. Mostly because it's already priced in. And historically, every time there's been a rate cut after a long period of high interest rates, it's been a sign of recession (until rates reach a very low level, which is the bullish sign). More on this post I wrote in 2024: https://t.me/CryptoCapoTG/404

In short: the idea remains the same. Staying aware of macro events is important, but price action speaks first. And the charts keep showing warning signs.

Reversal confirmed. Some of my short positions are back in profits.

We should see new lows this month.

There’s a time for everything.

There will be a time to get very bullish.
There will be a time when altcoins pump hard for weeks.
That time will come.

But this isn’t it. This is a time to be bearish.

Plan for the future. Act in the present.

Interesting how, despite all the bearish signals, people keep buying the dip.

The risk of a black swan event is still high. If it happens, we could see $BTC drop to $60k–$70k and alts crashing 50–80%.

Big week ahead. Time to stay focused, volatility is coming.

I hope you had a great weekend!

This looks like redistribution before lower.

$110k should be next. Clean break below it, and bearish acceleration starts.

Isolated pumps ≠ bullish trend.

Most of the market is stuck at resistance, printing lower highs.

Stay cautious. Risk remains high.

$ETH

I was wrong on being bearish too early. Price has gone up to the previous resistance of $4,000-4,100 in a very strong move.

Now the question is if it's going to make a clean break or if this is a deviation:

-Clean break means new ATH (what most are expecting).

-Deviation would be a clear sign of trend exhaustion and would take it to the $2,750-3,000 support (first support), and below there, it would reach the main support of $1,800-2,000 (main target if bearish thesis plays out)

$SOL update

Still stuck at the same $170-200 resistance, despite the ETH run.

This is a sign of weakness IMO.

#ALTCOINS

This is what I mean. Isolated pumps (ETH) don't equal a bullish trend.

Altcoins are still at resistance (and now ETH too).

If the ''buy zone'' is reached, I plan to buy hard there.

#DXY

Expecting a bullish move for the dollar. Confirmation above 100.

Wishing you all a great weekend!

New week, same plan:

Keep calm and don't FOMO.

If you feel like you're missing out, don't worry.

As I always say, there will always be opportunities, even much better ones.

I've been bearish since May, and yes, the market bounced hard recently. But I still believe a big drop is coming very soon. After that, I expect a massive recovery into October–November.
That’s where I see the real opportunity to make life-changing money.

I have a clear and detailed plan for this year, and I'm very confident about it.

Just be patient. Don’t FOMO now.

Much lower.

Every bounce is a bull trap until proven otherwise.

''Forewarned is forearmed''

$BTC

Bearish confirmations still needed, but if Bitcoin breaks under $108k, chances are the local top is in and we'll get a strong first leg down towards the $60k-70k main support. That would mean 50%-80% capitulation event for altcoins.

$XLM

Looking to buy some between $0.15–0.20 (current price: $0.385), if the main idea plays out.

It should eventually reach a new ATH, as it is expected to play a key role in the new economic system.

September is coming, and it should be a very bearish month, with some surprises for many.

I hope you enjoyed the weekend.

#SILVER (XAG)

As I've been saying, Silver looks great on the very high timeframe. Once it makes a clean break above 48-50, we should see a strong bullish move.

Same as with Gold, there will be corrections along the way, but next few months/years should be bullish for both Silver and Gold.

#ALTCOINS - The calm before the storm

Altcoins remain stuck at resistance. Price action is flat, bleeding slowly while the market waits for a catalyst to trigger.

Eyes on the ''Buy zone'' to enter the market.

GM

Back in July I pointed to the China–Taiwan conflict as a potential trigger for the black swan scenario. That potential narrative is still on the table, but the probability has shifted further out, most likely in 2026.

But storms do not always come from where we expect. The next wave may not arrive with headlines of war, but with something harder to name. Pressure builds where few are looking. Networks weaken, the flow pauses, and the system reveals its fragility. Narratives will appear to fill the silence, yet the result remains unchanged: access fades, trust cracks, and panic takes hold.

In any case, charts first, then the news.


Stay safe.