There's a probability of a very last shakeout, but basically I believe we are entering the ''up only'' mode, which should last a few weeks.

Just don't get shaken out.

This would be an estimate of a quick 3%-8% drop for BTC, 10%-20% for alts.

I will let you know when I believe the local bottom has been reached, or when this short-term idea gets invalidated.

The strategy remains: hold and buy the dip.

Idea playing out. Not over yet, imo.

Correction:

If my thesis is right, the shakeout would be an estimate of a quick 5%-10% drop for BTC, 10%-30% for alts.

Keep calm if it happens. It would be a great opportunity to buy more, and it wouldn't change the main plan.

$ETH - HTF chart updated

This is how it would look. Same as before, but adding the potential last shakeout, which would test the $2,800-3,000 support again.

Interesting $ETH fractal:

https://x.com/CryptoCapo_/status/1881622841902379326

Given the recent events and the current sentiment, the market really needs one last leg down before it can start going back up again...

I've started building a hedge position here.

GM!

Just to clarify: my main thesis still points to an upcoming altseason in the next few weeks. However, as I’ve been mentioning, I see increasing chances of a quick shakeout (a fast 10%-30% drop meant to scare weak hands out) before the market resumes its upward trend.

Here’s my current positioning:

-80% altcoins (which I’m not selling)

-A hedge covering half of that altcoin allocation (i.e., 50% of it), to protect my portfolio in case we do see that final move down.


I’m not turning bearish, just being cautious. I’ll keep you updated on any changes.

As always, this isn’t financial advice, just my own strategy.

$ENA update

LTF idea played out perfectly, but it couldn't break above the $0.95 key level.

The current main support has been tested multiple times, and the entire market is looking weak right now.

If this support zone fails to hold, then we might see a move down to $0.65, where I'm planning to buy more.

Today, Donald Trump will speak at the World Economic Forum in Davos at 5:00 PM CET (4:00 PM GMT).

He’s expected to address global economic and political issues.

Something tells me he might say something which could trigger that last shakeout in the market.

Dead Cat Bounce (DCB) / Bull trap seems complete.

Now it should drop from here. 75% hedged now.

This move really looks like a bull trap. Watch out.

Analysis done, alerts set. The plan is clear: I’ll hold/buy on the dip if that final shakeout hits, which is likely. That’s why I’m hedged. Stay strong if it happens.

Until then, remember the importance of disconnecting and recharging. It helps keep your vision clear for the next big move.

GM!

The idea is playing out, but it’s not over yet, in my opinion. Some people might start panicking and capitulating soon, which is usually when the bottom forms.

Stay strong and be ready to buy the dip when the time comes. I’ll let you know when I believe that is.