Short-term holders are the most likely to sell into a rally, and almost all of them are now in profit. Their share of supply in profit is above the sell line, where their selling has picked up in the past. The line has been crossed early in recoveries, such as 2019 and 2023, and near tops, such as 2021 and 2025. On its own, it does not show which way price goes next.
Realized profit across all holders is still low, so the incentive to sell has not yet turned into heavy selling. A drop back below the sell line, together with rising realized profit, would be the first sign that recent buyers are taking profits.
Realized profit across all holders is still low, so the incentive to sell has not yet turned into heavy selling. A drop back below the sell line, together with rising realized profit, would be the first sign that recent buyers are taking profits.
Buying #ARPA here again
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ARPA_USDT
Price holding very strong here after horizontal resistance breakout and forming bullish flag now which is looking ready for breakout on daily timeframe✌️
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ARPA_USDT
Price holding very strong here after horizontal resistance breakout and forming bullish flag now which is looking ready for breakout on daily timeframe✌️
#ARPA/USDT
Downtrendline breakout and retest already done on 2D timeframe and now its in continuation phase
So just buying the dip and holding it till moonshot✍
Downtrendline breakout and retest already done on 2D timeframe and now its in continuation phase
So just buying the dip and holding it till moonshot✍
Crypto Analytic Z
Bitcoin prediction on top: the price moved over $85,000 and is moving higher now. However, the price has failed to print a new higher high, and selling pressure is ongoing from the near resistance. Locally, a news factor could take it up to that target area.…
Bitcoin has again been rejected from the resistance area. Sellers are active in this zone, and a significant volume candle is needed to break through. Another attempt to breach the resistance area is expected in the coming days.
📈 Bitcoin’s relative strength is back.
In June, $BTC outperformed the S&P 500 on just 1 in 5 trading days — its weakest stretch in six years. Now, Bitcoin’s win rate has climbed back above 50% while stocks remain relatively flat.
👉 This suggests a renewed, more Bitcoin-specific demand rather than simply broader risk-on momentum.
In June, $BTC outperformed the S&P 500 on just 1 in 5 trading days — its weakest stretch in six years. Now, Bitcoin’s win rate has climbed back above 50% while stocks remain relatively flat.
👉 This suggests a renewed, more Bitcoin-specific demand rather than simply broader risk-on momentum.
📊 $BTC Long-Term Holders are showing a major structural difference this cycle.
Long-Term Holder (LTH) MVRV stayed above 1 throughout the entire cycle, meaning this cohort never fell into an overall unrealized-loss position.
In previous bear markets since at least 2015, LTH-MVRV dropped below 1 at the cycle lows, putting long-term holders underwater. This time, it tomed above 1 and is now climbing again. 📈
👉 This could indicate a fundamentally stronger market structure compared with previous cycles.
Long-Term Holder (LTH) MVRV stayed above 1 throughout the entire cycle, meaning this cohort never fell into an overall unrealized-loss position.
In previous bear markets since at least 2015, LTH-MVRV dropped below 1 at the cycle lows, putting long-term holders underwater. This time, it tomed above 1 and is now climbing again. 📈
👉 This could indicate a fundamentally stronger market structure compared with previous cycles.
Crypto Analytic Z
Bitcoin has again been rejected from the resistance area. Sellers are active in this zone, and a significant volume candle is needed to break through. Another attempt to breach the resistance area is expected in the coming days.
Bitcoin is again testing the resistance area, and let's see if it is able to break above it. A break above this level will lead to significant upward movement.
📊 $BTC remains trapped below key cost-basis levels.
Investors who bought Bitcoin over the past two years may reach breakeven above $88K, creating potential selling pressure as price approaches that level. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned into net sellers again. 📉
The ETF cost basis near $81.5K has acted as support twice so far, making it a critical level to watch.
👉 BTC needs to reclaim key cost-basis levels to strengthen its bullish structure. If $81.5K fails to hold, further downside pressure could emerge.
Investors who bought Bitcoin over the past two years may reach breakeven above $88K, creating potential selling pressure as price approaches that level. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned into net sellers again. 📉
The ETF cost basis near $81.5K has acted as support twice so far, making it a critical level to watch.
👉 BTC needs to reclaim key cost-basis levels to strengthen its bullish structure. If $81.5K fails to hold, further downside pressure could emerge.
🔥 THIS IS A BIG WEEK FOR CRYPTO!
📊 Several major economic events and corporate updates could influence Bitcoin and altcoin price action this week.
Key events to watch (UTC):
- Oct 15: 🇺🇸 US PPI Inflation Data — 12:30 UTC
- Oct 15: 🛍 US Retail Sales — 12:30 UTC
- Oct 16: 🎤 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Speaks — 03:30 UTC
⚠️ Expect a potentially volatile week for Bitcoin and altcoins as traders react to inflation data, retail sales, and Fed commentary.
Hotter-than-expected inflation could increase selling pressure, while cooler data may support risk assets. The market’s reaction will depend on how these releases shape expectations for Fed policy.
🔥 Stay alert, manage risk, and watch key support and resistance levels. This could be a defining week for crypto’s next major move!
📊 Several major economic events and corporate updates could influence Bitcoin and altcoin price action this week.
Key events to watch (UTC):
- Oct 15: 🇺🇸 US PPI Inflation Data — 12:30 UTC
- Oct 15: 🛍 US Retail Sales — 12:30 UTC
- Oct 16: 🎤 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Speaks — 03:30 UTC
⚠️ Expect a potentially volatile week for Bitcoin and altcoins as traders react to inflation data, retail sales, and Fed commentary.
Hotter-than-expected inflation could increase selling pressure, while cooler data may support risk assets. The market’s reaction will depend on how these releases shape expectations for Fed policy.
🔥 Stay alert, manage risk, and watch key support and resistance levels. This could be a defining week for crypto’s next major move!
⚡️ INSIGHT: Fresh buying pressure is pushing Bitcoin higher.
According to Glassnode, large buy orders entered the market after bids around $80,000 were filled, helping drive BTC upward. 📈
However, support below $80K is weakening again, which could leave the market vulnerable if selling pressure returns.
👉 Buyers are stepping in, but BTC needs to maintain its upward momentum. Watch the $80K zone closely for the next signal.
According to Glassnode, large buy orders entered the market after bids around $80,000 were filled, helping drive BTC upward. 📈
However, support below $80K is weakening again, which could leave the market vulnerable if selling pressure returns.
👉 Buyers are stepping in, but BTC needs to maintain its upward momentum. Watch the $80K zone closely for the next signal.
Crypto Analytic Z
Bitcoin was able to hold the $80,000 level and has since bounced back. The price is now testing the resistance area, so let’s see how it reacts.
Bitcoin was rejected from the resistance area in its initial attempt. Let's see if the price can break above this resistance area. It may revisit the $80,000 area, so be prepared for that.
📊 Bitcoin sellers may be showing signs of capitulation again.
Previous spikes in loss-taking during early August, mid-August, and mid-September coincided with local market toms. Meanwhile, profit-taking has slowed since the September high.
If this pattern repeats, yesterday’s wave of selling just above $80K could mark a local floor for BTC. 📈
👉 The key now is whether buyers step in and defend the $80K zone. A sustained recovery would strengthen the case for a local tom, but confirmation is still needed.
Previous spikes in loss-taking during early August, mid-August, and mid-September coincided with local market toms. Meanwhile, profit-taking has slowed since the September high.
If this pattern repeats, yesterday’s wave of selling just above $80K could mark a local floor for BTC. 📈
👉 The key now is whether buyers step in and defend the $80K zone. A sustained recovery would strengthen the case for a local tom, but confirmation is still needed.
Crypto Analytic Z
Bitcoin was rejected from the resistance area in its initial attempt. Let's see if the price can break above this resistance area. It may revisit the $80,000 area, so be prepared for that.
Bitcoin is still moving within the consolidation range and forming a wedge pattern. With this kind of pattern, price has some room to fall further, but this can be interrupted a consolidation break.
In the 30 days to October 5, US spot ETF flows, stablecoin growth and corporate treasury buying brought in about $4.9B. Over the same period, the Realized Cap, the value of all coins at the price they last moved, rose about $12.8B.
New money therefore covers less than two fifths of that rise. The rest is coins changing hands at higher prices among money already in the market. The rallies of 2024 and 2025 showed a similar mix, but on far larger inflows. Until those inflows pick up, the move depends on existing holders paying more.
New money therefore covers less than two fifths of that rise. The rest is coins changing hands at higher prices among money already in the market. The rallies of 2024 and 2025 showed a similar mix, but on far larger inflows. Until those inflows pick up, the move depends on existing holders paying more.
Crypto Analytic Z
Bitcoin is still moving within the consolidation range and forming a wedge pattern. With this kind of pattern, price has some room to fall further, but this can be interrupted a consolidation break.
Bitcoin is experiencing upward movement and has broken the resistance line. A sustained hold above the $83,000 level will drive the price higher.