Asia's weekly TOP10 crypto news: Mt. Gox Creditors Confirm Receipt of BTC and BCH Settlements, Russia Considers Permanent Legalization of Cross-Border Stablecoin Payments and Top10 News（0701-0707) — link

Introducing the guide to Digital Assets: Insights and Market Trends by CME Group and Glassnode

The report provides institutional investors with an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum fundamentals, capital flows, market cycles, derivatives markets, and institutional adoption.

Key takeaways:

- Major Asset Dominance: Bitcoin's market cap increased by $1.13 trillion (+370%) since November 2022, and Ethereum's valuation rose by $354 billion (+267%).

- Settlement Volume: Bitcoin's daily on-chain volume is around $46.4 billion, comparable to Visa and Mastercard, with filtered volumes at $6.5 billion.

- Bull Market Correction: Bitcoin's deepest correction since November 2022 was -20.3%.

- ETH/BTC Ratio: The declining ratio indicates shifting market dynamics, with more institutional buy-side pressure on Bitcoin.

- CME Futures Dominance: CME futures represent over 80% of the calendar futures market for Bitcoin and 53% for Ethereum.

For the full analysis, download the guide here: https://glassno.de/3XPCQkx

BofA Securities Research 2Q Earnings Preview

Morgan Stanley: 15 ways to play AI

All Spot ETH ETFs Fees:

> Blackrock: 0.25% [0.12% for the first $2.5B/12 months]
> Grayscale: 2.5%
> Franklin: 0.19% [ZERO fee for the first $10B/31st Jan 2025]
> Vaneck: 0.20% [ZERO fee for the first $1.5B/12 months]
> Bitwise: 0.20% [ZERO fee for the first $500M/6 months]
> Fidelity: 0.25% [ZERO fee in 2024]
> 21shares: 0.21% [ZERO fee for the first $500M/6 months]
> Invesco Galaxy: 0.25%
> Grayscale ETH Mini Trust: 0.25% [0.12% for the 1st $2B/12 months]

🎯🔥 Rapid Fire Takeaways from RWA World’s Newsletter:

📈Tokenized treasuries are ‘growing way faster than stablecoins:’ Securitize CEO

👀Goldman Sachs eyes tokenization projects for institutional clients by year-end

😕U.S. House Fails to Override Biden's SEC Veto of Bill That Would End Controversial SEC Guidance

🐜BNP Paribas, Ant International team up on cross-border payments

📜Partior Announces $60M+ Series B Round to Transform Clearing and Settlement Infrastructure Worldwide

🐲China's Digital RMB Transactions Skyrocket By 630% In 2023

Key takeaways on Web3 secondary market in June by SecondLane

- June is the first month in the year showing a clear sign of the Buyer’s market with buying requests exceeding selling offers on the assets by 75%!
- Valuation spread between Buy and Sell offers on the same assets dropped from 88% last month to 36%

- $883M in order book value in June 2024
- $4.5M avg offered amount; a sharp rise from $3.9M last month
- 55% average premium to last round FDVs
- top projects: Circle, Solana, Scroll, Kraken, Celestia, TON, Pyth, Gunzilla, OpenAI

- $200k median Buy Ask at an $9B average valuation
- 2/3 of Buy Asks come at discount (40% avg discount to last round or spot); 6% at par; 25% with average premium of 80%+)
- $2M median Sell Offer at $6.5B avg valuation
- 40% of deals offered at discount (45% avg discount); 32% at par; and 29% asked for a premium (avg 270%+)

- 2% drop in deals with premiums to previous rounds
- 10% growth in deals at par to previous rounds
- 46% of deals in June came with discount, 25% at par, and 29% with premium to previous round
- 15% median discount to previous round on all deals in June
- top 10% of deals offered at 200% premium or higher to previous round
- bottom 25% were offered at 40% or greater discount to last round

- largest discounts for LP positions in VC funds, CEX, L1s, Wallets, GameFi, blockchain infrastructure and and services
- largest premiums for projects in blockchain analytics, and staking
- largest premiums for Round A, largest discounts for Seed Round

- 57% SAFT and 44% equity deals
- 73% (Pre-)Seed, 27% Rounds A-D
- 70% of deals attributed to the same 5 sectors: blockchain services, DeFi, infrastructure, tech development, GameFi

- Average deal maturity grew to 4 months on Buy Asks and 4.4 months on Sell offers until expiration or transaction
- 60% of deals are active for over 1 month
- Longest maturity among:
- earlier vs later rounds: 6.4 months for Pre-Seed; ~4 months for Seed & Round A vs 1+ months for Rounds B, C, D
- CeFi, Wallet, CEX projects, VC, NFT, Blockchain infra

- 13% of deals continue to circulate without public exposure, with a lower valuation ($4.1B FDV vs $7.4B FDV on public offers)
- Most private deals came for SAFT (76%) at (Pre-)Seed stage (83%) deals for DEXes, EVM, and cross-chain solutions

Reach out to us for the full June 2024 secondary market report

Coatue Reaearch AI Robitics

Global Liquidity and Digital Assets Report by Two Prime

First day of ETH ETF trading:

The inflow is $590.7 million.
The outflow is $484.1 million.

-> The net inflow is $106.6 million.
For comparison, average net inflows per day into #BTC ETFs during first 10 days: $75.7M.

The supply increase of #ETH this year is $155 million.

The demand in one day is almost the same as the supply in 2024.

Introducing the Q3 Guide to Crypto Markets by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode.

This third installment highlights the ongoing bull market, ETF impact, and surge in on-chain activity.

Key points from the 65-page guide:

- Bull Market Dynamics: Since November 2022, Bitcoin prices have quadrupled. This cycle had drawdowns of 5%-30%, with none exceeding 30%, a rarity in past cycles.

- ETF Influence: Spot Bitcoin ETFs, launched in January 2024, amassed $50B in AUM within six months, boosting crypto interest and trading volumes. ETF inflows have outpaced new Bitcoin issuance, indicating strong demand.

- On-chain Growth: On-chain activity is up, with daily active addresses on Ethereum and Layer 2 solutions increasing by 127% in 2024. Despite a 58% drop in user fees post-Ethereum's Dencun upgrade in March 2024, transactions rose by 59%, showing real utility.

Download the guide here: https://glassno.de/4ddXPSn

Bitcoin 2050 Valuation Scenarios: Global Medium of Exchange and Reserve Asset

According to Glassnode, 59,000 of Mt.Gox's 142,000 BTC have been distributed to creditors through Kraken and Bitstamp, and another 79,600 BTC will be redistributed to creditors soon. The identity of the creditors seems to represent HODLers or long-term investors, which may reduce the extent of seller pressure. On Tuesday, the estate moved roughly 33,964 BTC, worth $2.25 billion to a new wallet, data from blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence shows. The market share of decentralized exchanges (DEXs) compared to centralized exchanges (CEXs) has hit an all-time high. According to The Block's Data Dashboard, the monthly trade volume of DEXs relative to CEXs is already at its highest ever, at 14.22%. The previous record high occurred in May 2023 at 13.7%. Bitcoin exchange reserves hit multi-year low signaling a shift to long-term hodling potentially. BoJ raised rates by 15bps to 0.25%. This is the second rate rise since 2007. QCP: Macro volatility has intensified. The NASDAQ has declined by 10% from its peak as the Magnificent 7 pulls back. FX carry trades like long USDJPY and short USDMXN are being unwound as volatility increases. The VIX topped at 19.50 after trading in a range of 12-14 for the past 2 months. Elevated equity valuations and lofty earnings targets are causing companies to disappoint. Commodities such as Oil and Copper have declined by 10-15% for the month, due to increased fears of a global slowdown. We anticipate increased volatility ahead of the FOMC. We do not expect a cut and place higher importance on the statement and Powell's presser after. Our base case is for 1 cut in September and December each. We remain wary of a deviation from current expectations, which would trigger risk-off moves across all assets, including crypto. Such a scenario would indicate the Federal Reserve's perception of heightened economic challenges. In the crypto space, we finally saw net inflows of USD33.7mil in ETH spot ETFs. This gave a much needed boost to ETH prices which have been lagging behind BTC for the past month. Nonetheless, we foresee continued outflows from ETHE in the next 2 weeks. BTC has failed to break above the 70k for the 6th time. We maintain our view that BTC will continue to trade within a range. ETH longs are preferred as ETHE outflows subside over the next 2 weeks and ETH catches up to BTC. We target a break of 4000 which is the 2024 high.

Derivatives Trader Commentary: Perpetual funding rates on the low end for BTC and higher for ETH. Index showing +4.6% for BTC and +10.1% ETH. Option exchange fairly flat for both. Basis is lower for both. BTC Sep basis is 1206 vs 1450 yest; still okay yield 11.3%. ETH $60.3 (66 yest) at 11.2%. Option implied volatility is in — partly due to volatility and partly due to us being a little lower and tracking skew by strike. Market prefers calls to puts overall. 25D BTC skew still favors calls but at about half of what it was prior to Trump’s speech (think favoring calls 3-4% rather than 6-7%). Realized volatility still looks subdued for BTC at 38% for the last 7 days which is below the average. However, the ranges are still impressively volatile at $2034 vs the average of $1456. Given the event risk this week and the ranges, there does not appear to be a huge risk premium in BTC options. ETH realized is still around 60% so, strictly speaking, no variance risk premium there.

BTC ATM IV
1W: 47.14%
1M: 48.09%
3M: 52.29%
6M: 57.63%
Deribit Volatility Index: 49.67
Index Price: $65801.83

ETH ATM IV
1W: 50.3%
1M: 54.21%
3M: 61.3%
6M: 65.85%
Deribit Volatility Index: 55.73
Index Price: $3277.71

SOL ATM IV
1W: 70.68%
1M: 67.48%
Index Price: $179.1252

"The information in this message is for information purposes only and not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is believed to be accurate and is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any digital assets or other financial products."

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