BIG: Satellite images show fires at two pumping stations on the Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline, which carries crude from Abu Dhabi to the port of Fujairah, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran may be targeting alternative export routes used by U.S. allies to avoid Hormuz.

Source: Soar Atlas

BIG: Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto on Iran War:

I am forced to know things that no longer let me sleep.

For what could happen in the coming weeks, for the effects it will have on the economy and on our daily lives.

Source: la Repubblica

Iran continues to mock Trump:

Iran responded positively to Trump’s threats and reopened the Strait of Hormuz — though only for two Chinese oil tankers!

BIG: Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto on Iran War:

We did not support this war, and no one asked for our opinion.

The length of wars does not depend on the power of the strongest, but on the resistance of the weakest.

Iran is larger than Ukraine, has more people, and thousands of years of history.

Source: la Repubblica

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent:

Over time, the U.S. is going to retake control of the straits, and there will be freedom of navigation.

Iran-linked hackers have breached at least 50 Israeli security cameras and wiped data from 60 Israeli companies since the war began, Israel’s National Cyber Directorate says.

The camera hacks were likely used to assess missile strike damage and track Israeli troop movements.

Most company targets were small and mid-sized firms, with some data permanently destroyed.

Iranian cyber activity has also increased in the U.S. and Gulf states, as cyber warfare escalates on both sides.

Source: WSJ

Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa on Iran War:

It carries very great risks to energy supplies and energy prices in the world, in addition to other potential risks in the future if this war develops and lasts and a formula is not reached for an agreement on a certain formula.

Targets against the Gulf states are certainly condemned.

The Gulf states did not enter this conflict spontaneously, but were subjected to attacks by the Iranians.

These attacks are reprehensible, and Syria sympathizes fully with the Gulf states.

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Nigeria’s Plateau state imposed a curfew in Jos North after unknown gunmen attacked a univeristy community, killing at least 13 in Angwan Rukuba, as authorities move to restore order amid ongoing Middle Belt violence.

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Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa on Iran War:

Any disturbance in the Red Sea or in the Strait of Hormuz, Syria constitutes a safe haven for the safety of supply chains through its strategic location.

European countries will suffer from the interruption of energy supplies from the Arab Gulf.

Professor Robert Pape:

For 50 years, America’s number one goal in the Middle East has been to prevent an oil hegemon.

That means control over the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has never been an oil hegemon before. Now it is. Twenty percent of the world’s oil flows through Hormuz, more than the 16% the United States produces.

So now Iran has more influence over oil prices than anyone else. They’re leveraging that for geopolitical gain with countries like India and others.

They’re also making money, about $1.5 billion so far from this oil. The funds are sitting in Chinese banks, so we can’t seize them.

And if this continues for another six weeks, another six months, then Iran will not only be an oil hegemon but one with nuclear capability.

At that point, the balance of power will change dramatically.

Professor Robert Pape:

We’re heading to stage three of the trap. That is ground operations.

When those Marines hit the beaches, many will die. And when they die, many Trump supporters will double down.

They won’t want to say those people died for us and now we’re abandoning the mission.

Stage three would involve “limited territorial control.” It would likely involve the Marines and possibly airborne units.

There would be coastal areas seized. Perhaps operations against nuclear sites.

It will be very difficult to walk away and leave Iran in control of that much power.

Energy Expert Oğuzhan Akyener (TESPAM)
 
A limited or higher traffic blockage of Bab El Mandeb by the Houthis will result in higher prices for the European Union & mostly to China.
 
The most vulnerable countries will be European countries and China.
 
The blockage will be actually good for United States. Thus, I don’t expect a higher level of closure in Bab El Mandeb.

FULL INTERVIEW

Professor Robert Pape:

Now Iran is more powerful, not weaker. It’s going to want more. It will want to keep the 3.5 percent enriched uranium.

I’ve modeled the bombing of Iran for 20 years. The United States would bomb Fordo and Natanz because Israel does not have the airpower to take out Fordo.

So we take out Fordo. When we do, we disable the industrial facility — but we don’t get the nuclear material.

Even though President Trump declared the program obliterated, he began negotiating again. Why? Because of the nuclear material.

My analysis has always been that about a year later, you would panic over that dispersed material. You would never truly know whether it was being turned into a nuclear weapon or a radiological device. And then you would move toward regime change.

Bombing for regime change was always stage two. I said this is how America would talk itself into a regime change war — something it has resisted for decades.

First, you bomb Fordo. That’s exactly what happened.

You disable the facility , not the enriched uranium. And it’s always about the enriched uranium.

Professor Robert Pape:

President Trump is on the horns of a dilemma.

He can cut bait now, cut a deal now, pay that high price. Break Israel’s elbows, threaten to cut off all the aid...

It’s a super high political price, but his presidency may still be recoverable.

Or he can go to the other side — the military, the battlefield side — cross into stage three, and use military force to physically open the Strait of Hormuz with ground operations.

The political costs will mount over the course of a three-to-six-month attrition war.

And at that point, President Trump will effectively — not physically, but politically — lose his presidency.

It will become unrecoverable.

Türkiye has captured Önder Sığırcıkoğlu on the Syria–Lebanon border in a joint Turkish–Syrian intelligence operation.

He handed over Syrian rebel commanders Hussein Harmoush and Mustafa Kassum to the Assad regime in 2011, where they were tortured to death.

Sığırcıkoğlu escaped from a Turkish prison in 2014 under suspicious circumstances and had been on the run since.

Trump to Bloomberg:

Iran wants to settle.

The war is going well — unbelievably well.

Marco Rubio to Al Jazeera:

Iran must stop producing all the drones and missiles we’ve seen recently.

The US Embassy in Caracas resumed operations Monday after being closed since 2019.

US diplomats are gradually returning, though full services aren’t yet available.

BREAKING: Turkish MoD:

A ballistic munition, determined to have been launched from Iran and to have entered into Turkish airspace, has been neutralized by NATO air and missile defence assets deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Kim Jong Un oversees North Korean special forces.

Marco Rubio to Al Jazeera:

Israel’s focus differs from what we are focusing on, and they have their own objectives.