Axios:

Trump expected a quick victory in the war with Iran, but the conflict is increasingly looking like an “escalation trap.” In such situations, the stronger military keeps intensifying attacks to prove dominance even as the strategic gains get smaller.

Unlike tariffs or political disputes, war cannot be easily reversed. Iran can prolong the conflict by disrupting key oil routes like the Strait of Hormuz or continuing missile strikes, meaning the outcome is not fully in Trump’s control.

Although the U.S. and Israeli militaries currently have clear superiority, there is still no obvious way for Trump to declare a convincing victory.

Behind the scenes, some officials are experiencing “buyer’s remorse,” worrying the decision to attack Iran was a mistake and that Trump overestimated his ability to topple the regime without sending ground troops.

UK says it won’t automatically follow Trump’s demands over the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz, calling his presidency “very transactional.”

UK Minister Pat McFadden:

Trump is “a very transactional president.”

That doesn’t mean that we will always have to support every intervention and every action that the United States chooses to take.

Source: The Guardian

🇩🇪 Germany – Explicitly refused.

🇮🇹 Italy – Part of the EU Aspides mission discussion but no commitment to Hormuz deployment.

🇮🇳 India – Not joining coalition; pursuing direct diplomacy with Iran and escorting some tankers independently.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent:

Putin would get even more money if oil spiked to $150.

Iran’s missile and drone attacks have dropped to a lower but stable level.

The US and Israel have destroyed much of its strike capability, but Iran can still launch dozens of drones and ballistic missiles, with some still hitting targets.

The UAE says its air defenses intercepted 6 ballistic missiles and 21 drones from Iran on March 16.

Since the war began:
304 ballistic missiles
15 cruise missiles
1,627 drones intercepted

Casualties:
2 UAE soldiers killed
5 civilians killed
145 people injured

CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper:

We have successfully destroyed over 100 Iranian naval vessels, and we aren't done.

New York Post report claims US intelligence believes Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei may be gay, a claim that reportedly surprised Donald Trump, who “laughed aloud” during the briefing.

Sources say Trump “couldn’t contain his surprise and laughed aloud.”

One official reportedly “has not stopped laughing about it for days.”

Intelligence reportedly suggests Mojtaba had “a long-term sexual relationship with his childhood tutor.”

The claim was “derived from one of the most protected sources that the government has.”

One source said: “The fact that this was elevated to the highest of high levels shows there’s some confidence in this.”

READ MORE

An Israeli journalist says online gamblers threatened him with violence and death to force him to change a report about an Iranian missile strike because more than $14 million in bets on Polymarket depended on whether a missile actually hit Israel that day.

Initial demand: “If you could correct this tonight, you would be doing me and many others a great favor.”

Escalation: “You have exactly half an hour to correct your attempt at influence.”

Threat over losses: “After you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you.”

Final ultimatum: “86 minutes left. You are the only one responsible for your life.”

Another warning: “You will discover enemies who will be willing to pay anything to make your life miserable.”

Source: Times of Israel

The UAE’s oil production has fallen by nearly half as the Strait of Hormuz disruption blocks exports and fills regional storage.

Output dropped from ~3.56 million b/d last month to about 2 million b/d.

Producers are cutting output because oil can’t be shipped through Hormuz, causing storage tanks to fill up.

Source: Bloomberg

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global fertilizer supplies, not just oil.

Disruptions to shipping through the strait are already pushing fertilizer prices higher and threatening global food production.

The strait carries ~1/3 of global seaborne fertilizer trade.

Gulf producers account for ~43–49% of global urea exports and ~30% of ammonia exports.

The region also ships ~44% of seaborne sulfur, a key fertilizer input.

Nitrogen fertilizers (urea and ammonia) are essential for crop yields and rely on cheap Gulf natural gas. Nearly all exports from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iran must pass through Hormuz.

Fertilizer prices up ~30% since late February. Ships carrying fertilizer stuck in Gulf ports. Spring planting disrupted in multiple regions.

Countries most affected:
India, Pakistan, Bangladesh: rising prices, gas shortages hitting fertilizer plants.
Brazil: higher fertilizer costs threaten soybean production.
China & SE Asia: fertilizer prices rising sharply.
Parts of Africa: shortages risk food insecurity.

Netanyahu remains alive.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent:

Everywhere that there is chaos and terrorist mayhem, it is Iran.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Iran:

They are in Hitler’s bunker, but Hitler is dead.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Iran:

The previous Ayatollah did not want his son to become the Ayatollah. He left written instructions and they overrode him.

We believe that the current Ayatollah is injured and may be incapacitated.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Iran:

The Iranian ships have been getting out already, and we’ve let that happen to supply the rest of the world.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent:

Which is more? If oil spiked to $150 but Putin was getting 70% of that, or oil stays at $95 to $100? Where is he getting more money? If it spikes to $150.

So roughly his coffers are unchanged.

AP Investigation Ties Mystery Flights From Gaza to Israeli Group

The Israeli group Ad Kan, known to advocate for Palestinian emigration & tied to far right groups, organized mysterious flights since May transporting Palestinians from Gaza enclave to Indonesia & South Africa.

READ MORE

Germany Says Iran War “Not NATO’s Fight”

Germany said the conflict triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran is not a NATO war, pushing back against pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump for allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

READ MORE

CLAIM: Kuwaiti outlet Al-Jarida reports that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was secretly taken to Moscow for surgery after being seriously injured.

According to an Iranian source, he was transferred on a Russian military aircraft on March 12 after Putin proposed treatment.

The surgery was reportedly successful, and he is now recovering at a hospital inside the presidential compound in Moscow.

Iranian intelligence allegedly chose Russia because hospitals in Iran could become targets amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes.

WATCH: German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius:

We did not start this war.

What does the world expect, what does Donald Trump expect from a handful or two handfuls of European frigates to achieve there in the Strait of Hormuz, which the powerful American Navy cannot manage alone?

It is not our war; we did not start it.