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“We truly deserve to live… thank God for everything.”

China’s rare earth “export controls” were first announced on October 9th around 8:30 a.m. ET—more than 26 hours before Trump’s post on the topic.

At the time, it drew little attention. Only after Trump’s post on October 10th did markets panic, triggering a massive selloff.

Last night, China clarified that the new measures are not a full export ban—applications that meet regulatory standards will still be approved. This suggests the restrictions were more procedural than punitive.

Given this clarification, Trump’s 100% tariff threat on Chinese goods looks increasingly like a negotiation tactic rather than an imminent policy move.

With China signaling cooperation, the odds of those tariffs actually taking effect are now extremely low.

The result: the biggest crypto liquidation in history and a $2.5 trillion loss in S&P 500 market cap may have been driven by a single misunderstanding.

A new “trade deal” or de-escalation now appears likely.

Source: KobeissiLetter