"Ukraine is on the brink"

"I see no possibility for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield. Even if we can push the Russians back to the borders, it will not stop the war," says Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence.

— Such wars can only end with treaties. Currently, both parties are fighting for the "most advantageous position". But substantive negotiations can begin no earlier than in the second half of 2025.

— Russia will initially continue the implementation of the plan to occupy the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The success of the advance will be determined by when and where the Russians strike next.

— Russia is preparing for an offensive around the Kharkiv and Sumy regions in the northeast.

— Russian group, which is based on the border with Kharkiv, currently has 35,000 military personnel, but it is planned to increase it to 50,000-70,000 soldiers. This is "not enough" for an operation to capture a large city.

— The offensive of Russians will begin at the end of May - at the beginning of June.

— Now the army of the Russian Federation acts as a "single body" with a clear plan and under a single command.

#BREAKING Israeli airstrike hits Syrian security building outside Damascus.

Türkiye officially halts all trade with Israel.

“Türkiye will strictly and decisively implement these new measures until the Israeli government allows the uninterrupted flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza, Turkish Trade Ministry says.

U.S. says it killed a civilian, not a terrorist in a drone strike.

A targeted U.S. drone strike in northwest Syria one year ago hit and killed a civilian, not the al-Qaeda leader it was looking for, Pentagon admits.

High-precision JDAM aerial bomb on Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet.

FPV drones arrive in yet another war.

Myanmar rebels, soon after using kamikaze UAVs, has begun using FPV drones.

Government forces also begun to use FPV drones.

The U.S. began transferring fighter jets and UAVs from the UAE to Qatar after the Emirates said it would "no longer allow strikes on targets in Yemen and Iraq using equipment stationed at the Al Dhafra Airbase" near Abu Dhabi.

UAE does not want to be targeted by Iranian-backed forces for facilitating US military operations.

Source: WSJ

The US and Saudi Arabia are preparing to complete the extended defense agreement between them, which is already 90% complete.

— But the other part of the deal, which is seen as critical to winning support in Congress, is for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel.

— That will happen only if Israel agrees to Riyadh’s terms: get out of Gaza, freeze the building of settlements in the West Bank and embark on a three- to five-year “pathway” to establish a Palestinian state in the occupied territories.

— The understanding at the moment in Riyadh and Washington: Netanyahu is unable to obtain a coalition that will support an agreement that includes the cessation of fighting in Gaza and the creation of a horizon for the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Source: NYT

Islamic Resistance in Iraq released footage of the launch of a pair of Iranian Paveh family cruise missiles against targets in Israel.

Paveh is an Iranian long-range surface-to-surface cruise missile with a range of 1,650 km.

The US was previously hesitant to send long-range missiles (ATACMS) to Ukraine due to limited stockpiles.

However, increased production has eased those concerns.

The Pentagon's acquisition chief confirmed a "surge" in missile production, with "dozens" being delivered every few months for the rest of the year.

“There are a lot of ATACMS coming off that line.”

155mm shell production in Scranton, Pennsylvania reached a volume of more than 36,000 per month.

U.S. Army was manufacturing 14,000 155mm rounds prior to the conflict.

Scranton plant is the largest in the U.S.

The UK plans to provide Ukraine with 3 billion pounds of military aid every year.

London plans to provide such assistance to Kyiv "for as long as necessary."

David Cameron:

"We will provide three billion pounds every year for as long as it takes.”

Italy to transfer a battery of SAMP/T air defense system to Ukraine, La Repubblica reports.

Only 25% of US interceptors succeeded in Iran attack, Israeli media claims.

Only two out of eight US interceptors succeeded in hitting Iranian missiles during the drone and missile attack that targeted Israel in mid-April.

Czech Republic will not support those who try to avoid the legal obligation to protect Ukraine, Czech FM says.

There are almost 95,000 men aged 18 to 65 in the Czech Republic who have temporary protection.

#BREAKING British Foreign Secretary Cameron began negotiations in Kyiv on a “100-year partnership with Ukraine”, British Embassy in Kyiv reports.

Ukrainian MoD published a list of diseases with which Ukrainians are considered "fit for military service":

— People with non-progressive HIV.

— People with persistent cancer remission.

— People with mild mental manifestations, substance dependence syndrome with moderate or mild mental disorders.

— Clinically cured tuberculosis.

Iranian-made Quds/Paveh cruise missile wreckage found in northern Somalia.

Likely launched by Yemen's Houthis.

Kamikaze and FPV drones now kill more soldiers on both sides than either artillery or aircraft, Ukraine’s commander of ground forces Pavliuk says.

“Drones kill more soldiers on both sides than anything else at present. They have also created a scenario whereby almost everything can be seen by drones, not just on the front line but to a depth of between 10km and 30km on either side.”

German Chancellor Scholz laughed when asked why Taurus long-range missiles were not transferred to Ukraine, Bild reports.

“There are weapons that can only be supplied if control is maintained over everything that is done with them. And here you can’t have a debate, as if between friends: “Don’t you trust me?” Of course, I trust my friend. But still, However, I wouldn’t give everyone all the weapons,” he said and laughed.

Russian Mad Max style truck with anti-drone protection.