📈 Technical Outlook | GC | Gold

💡Core Scenarios for the Second Half of July

Scenario 1 — Base Case: Consolidation Ahead of the Fed Meeting
Probability: 40%
Base case: GC attempts to hold the $3,960–4,000 area and build a rotation higher toward $4,067–4,080. This is the first major resistance zone, and without meaningful support from the macro backdrop, price is likely to roll over again from this area.

Confirmations for this scenario:
😀 GC holds $3,975–4,000
😀 The dollar stops rising
😀 US yields do not make new local highs
😀 The Fed does not intensify its hawkish rhetoric
😀 Oil stabilizes
😀 News related to Iran does not trigger another inflation shock

If price establishes itself above $4,035, the next target is $4,067–4,080.

Scenario 2 — Bearish: A Break Below $3,975 and Further Downside
Probability: 45%
This scenario becomes active if the market continues to sell gold in response to rising real rates. A break below $3,975 could open the way toward $3,925–3,900, followed by $3,800–3,780.

The key triggers for this scenario are:
😀 oil begins rising again because of Iran / the Strait of Hormuz
😀 the market interprets this as an inflation shock
😀 the 10-year US Treasury yield moves higher
😀 the dollar strengthens
😀 Warsh / Logan / Jefferson / Waller strike a hawkish tone
😀 the market begins pricing in the possibility of another rate hike
😀 COT long positions begin to decline

Under this scenario, gold could fall even amid negative geopolitical developments, because the dominant factor would not be fear, but the cost of holding dollars.

Scenario 3 — Bullish Shock: A Return of the Safe-Haven Bid and a Break Above $4,080
Probability: 15%
This scenario becomes possible if the market rapidly shifts from an “inflation shock” regime into a “risk-off protection” regime.

What could trigger this scenario:
😀 a sharp deterioration in the situation between the US and Iran
😀 threats involving the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea shipping routes
😀 a military incident
😀 a sell-off in the equity market
😀 Treasury buying accompanied by lower yields
😀 the dollar fails to gain strong upside momentum
😀 investors return to gold as a protection trade

From a technical perspective, the key development would be acceptance above $4,080. If price establishes itself above this zone, the next target is $4,100–4,165.

Bottom Line:
From a long-term perspective, the structure remains bullish: central-bank demand, geopolitics, fiscal deficits, sanctions risk, and concerns surrounding the dollar-based system have not disappeared.

In the short term, however, GC is trading under the pressure of renewed inflation fears and the prospect of interest rates remaining elevated.

📊 ATAS Weekly Market Outlook

What could move the markets this week and which scenarios are worth watching? In this 15-minute weekly overview, Anastasiia breaks down the key levels, market structure, and potential trading scenarios for:

😀US stock index futures: ES & NQ
😀Gold futures: GC
😀Currency futures: 6E & 6B
😀Bitcoin

You’ll see the main bullish and bearish scenarios, important reaction zones, and the conditions that could confirm each setup.

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